On a day like today, I don’t much want to write about electoral politics or anything else. So this will be brief.
In Alabama, we have on the one side a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, Doug Jones, who is best known for locking up the Klansmen who had escaped accountability for more than a quarter century after having bombed the 16th Street Baptist Church in Montgomery, Alabama.
On the other side, we have a Republican candidate, Roy Moore, who in 2004 opposed Amendment 2 to the state constitution. Amendment 2 would have removed language in Alabama’s constitution that requires separate schools for “white and colored children.” It also would stricken references to poll taxes, a form of black disenfranchisement used in the state during the Jim Crow era. These remnants of the pre-Civil Rights period have no legal meaning anymore since they’ve been superseded by federal law. But they remain on the books as a kind of lasting stain. Moore didn’t want the language taken out because it “would have allowed federal judges to force the state to fund public school improvements with increased taxes.”
Right now, in Washington DC, there are Democratic leaders and strategists who trying to decide how much if anything to invest to help Doug Jones beat Roy Moore. They’re afraid of their own shadows, fearing that their support will convince Alabamans to vote against the candidate who locks up Klansmen instead of the candidate who appears to be a Klansman.
I say that we don’t pre-judge this. Don’t assume that Alabama will make the wrong decision here. Give them the opportunity to hear both sides of the argument and make a choice based on the merits. However it turns out, there are many decent people in Alabama who don’t want an unreformed segregationist as their senator, and they deserve a chance to win. And, given the importance of every single Senate seat, the rest of us deserve a chance to win, too.
Even if the language was the most innocuous in the world — with no racial component or historical baggage — we’d still be looking at someone who opposes legislation that “would have allowed federal judges to force the state to fund public school improvements with increased taxes.”
I mean — who are these people who see that sentence and think, Absolutely not! We can’t have that!
It took decades to get to a condition where rank-and-file Republicans (at least in certain Southern states) don’t want to fund public schools — don’t even want to risk that public schools might get their funding increased or their infrastructure repaired.
Fully agree. This is the sort of election race that the DSCC should be all over. A solid candidate as the Democratic nominee up against an extremist. Put enough money in this race to raise the profile and national attention to it. It could possibly result in Jones winning, but even if he doesn’t, the electorate outside AL will be better informed as to the type of extremists that Republicans vote for.
(McConnell was savvy enough to anticipate that with Moore as the GOP nominee, Democrats could nationalize this one and score a couple of points. For him the risk for backing a primary loser was lower than the risk being associated with Moore.)
By “all over this one,” I mean with money. Out of state Democratic politicians shouldn’t been seen or heard. Same with any celebrities associated with Clinton, Schumer, Pelosi, etc. or liberal/left politics. Hire Sanders’ TV advert team as they know how to do positive messaging that makes the candidate appealing.
Moore is far less popular in AL than the average Republican politician. Push that:
Any serious effort should shut down all attempts to suppress the vote from the beginning and force a fair registration and counting process.
And it should make sure that that the minority GOTV campaign starts early and hits the entire geography with a full-court press.
And the work the “respectable white folk” for the win. Doug Jones should have at least that respect. And Moore should be a pariah.
The hardest sell will be getting white Republicans to break with a Republican candidate for the first time in a generation. “Getting Doug Jones to send a message to Washington” should be a saleable message.
All that in two months? Get real.
The infrastructure in place, including what passes for local DP operations, is what Jones has to go with. Has AL rushed to take advantage of the decision in Shelby v. Holder? Or unlike NC where a Democrat can occasionally slip through, has AL been slow on this because it hasn’t been necessary?
I’m not sure that voter registration is a big barrier in AL. VOP (according to the US Census Bureau) is 3,741,806. Last year the AL SOS reported that there were 3,330,802 registered voters. (Interesting factoids, 2016 GOP primary votes were 65% of Trump’s GE votes. Across the aisle, Dem primary votes were only 55% of Clinton’s GE votes. Still both numbers are high in comparison to most states.) Total 2016 GE votes cast as 2,123,372. An increase of 50,000 from 2012. Clinton was down by 65,000 from Obama and Trump was up 65,000 from Romney. Johnson and write-ins got the increase.
The difference between Moore and his opponent in 2012 was approximately 85,000. It would be very difficult to pick up that number from new registrations; much less difficult from the million that are registered but didn’t vote. However, GOTV is like closing the deal at the retail level. Most effective when the sale has already been made.
That’s the task for Jones. Through his campaign appearances and adverts he has to make himself highly visible to the electorate. That’s a campaign’s wholesale marketing and where money can make a meaningful difference. Still, a candidate that can’t generate enthusiasm and make the sale is hard-pressed to win with a massive GOTV operation. With the exception of highlighting Moore’s failure in public office, Jones should accent his positives, including suitability for an office of public trust, and resist the temptation to go negative.
The last contested midterm AL Senate election was in 2010. Turnout was 1.5 million. A higher percentage of Republican voters than Democratic voters did turn out. 73% of Trump’s votes. Only 63% of Obama’s 2008 votes (his peak year in AL). The baseline turnout for special elections tends to be worse than for midterms. Total votes in GOP run-off special election primary was only 56% of the GOP 2016 presidential primary. The numbers for the Democratic primary were very low but it wasn’t a contested primary; so, the numbers may not mean much. The polling to date doesn’t look good for Jones, but his primary polling had him at 40% and less and he got 66% in the election. However, as the campaign has just begun, the polling only confirms that Moore remains much less appealing with the general electorate than a generic Republican.
If Alabama Democrats have not been working on countering voter suppression since 2010, they’re not going to be ready if lightning strikes in 2018 or 2020. They might have a race that is close enough to affect and close enough to show the silhouetted shadows of voter suppression tactics, now hidden in blowouts.
But Doug Jones should expect to be attacked for convicting the murderers who attacked 16th Street Baptist Church. That’s the way the GOP rolls now. I don’t know what “ready’ looks like, but this firehose of lying has won the day for over a decade; it’s time to find a way to shut it down.
Interesting information from The Guardian
Only two states, VT and ME, impose any voting restriction on convicted felons. Fourteen states restore voting rights after completion of incarceration. Four more restore the right after completion of parole. Nineteen after completion of probation. Restoration is far more difficult in eleven other states, including Alabama. (In KY and VA only a governor can reinstate the voting right of an individual.)
The barrier for those in AL that now qualify for reinstatement under the new law is LFOs (legal financial obligations). And it’s poll tax that’s constitutional. The median AL LFO is $3,956 and more than half of that amount is for court fees.
During Obama’s first run for President in 2008, I met a couple from Alabama who were visiting in Massachusetts. They dropped into the Democratic headquarters in my north of Boston town, where I was doing desk duty, to chat for a bit. Solid, down-to-earth people, and true-blue Democrats amid the sea of red back home. (Also white.)
People like that (whatever their color) deserve all the help we can give them.
I won’t discount the possibility of overdoing the “outsiders tellin’ us that to do” fear, but wouldn’t this be more of a triage thing? Sessions won by 20+ points in 2008 (he was basically unopposed in 2014). A Dem could run 15+ point better and still lose. I mean you have to compete some times or you will never win, but I do not envy the choices they have to make here.
Moore won his 2012 election with only 52% of the vote. His opponent got 48%.
So, Jones isn’t running against a standard issue AL Republican that wins with double digit margins.
is there any actual polling on this match up yet? that would be interesting and useful to see if there’s a chance to invest the money
3-4 polls, some with Moore way out front and some within 5 points.
The sample sizes in the polls to date are small. None of the primary polling with small sample sizes did that well. While all of them consistently had Moore in the lead in the first round and runoff, only those with large samples came close to accurately measuring Strange’s support; the others significantly understated his support.
The most that can be read from the polling to date is that Moore isn’t running away with it.
In the general? Fair point then.
Yes, the general. Not much voter drop-off from the presidential ballot line to Moore’s race. So, something like 150,000 Romney voters opted for Moore’s opponent.
He wont win, but Dems need to compete anyway. If nothing else it shows you respect the populace enough to ask them for their vote and the more they wee acryal Dems on the ground the harder Fox has to work to make them seem like an Other boogeyman.
*see actual
“He won’t win”
I think some folks said that about Scott Walker’s run for governor of Wisconsin.
Did more then ten people not say that about Trump?
Given a weak opponent, a “can’t win” candidate does win in swingy and rarely swingy states. AL is a tough nut to crack, but Moore is a nut.
Sometimes voters don’t get enough credit.
Sometimes voters get too much credit.
The older you get, the more you learn which side is more predictive, unfortunately.
There are blue dog Democrats and there are beat dog Democrats.
I’m no fun.
If the national Democratic Party is unwilling to go to the wall to get a good Southern Democratic Senator, they are truly dead as a party.
And all those “trained, experienced professionals” who never figured out how to win in the South against race-baiting better find other employment.
Taking a dive in Alabama is worse than anything that the “Bernie-bros” have been accused of by a certain section of minority Clinton supporters.
If the GOP truly is bankrupt of ideas and powerless in Congress from its own internal divisions, those divisions can cause its defeat in Alabama. I believe the first of those conditions are true and you believe the second is true enough to test.
Yes, let’s test it. But not with the same old gang.
I’ve already given to Doug Jones and I definitely feel his race has to be seriously supported but Democrats a) need a message(s) and b) better media. Otherwise, not much hope since AL is gerrymandered and has very serious voter suppression laws thanks to the Shelby decision.
Gerrymandering does not matter for state-wide races.
Without support the GOP avoid formal debate between Moore and Jones. Did Tim Scott ever debate the dem Rose?
Excellent point and should be a major part of the campaign strategy.
I think the national party should support him financially to the hilt, but other than that they should let the Alabama democrats handle their own politics. For example, Nancy Pelosi or Hillary Clinton or Spike Lee doing a spot for him would clearly not be helpful.
… Nancy Pelosi or Hillary Clinton or Spike Lee doing a spot for him would clearly not be helpful.
You do know the make-up of those who vote Democrat in Alabama, right? I don’t know whether they’d listen to Spike Lee, Danny Glover or someone else but I’d avoid the first two you listed.
Two issues here:
As to attracting the Alabama Democratic vote, which is mainly AA, I’m going by Bernie Sanders’ experience in the south. Except for those under 30, Spike Lee was not a big draw. I thought he was great, but hey, that’s just me. Hillary actually was. But that was then, this is now.
But there’s another thing, too. “Outside” Democrats like the ones I names, who are particularly unpopular in AL, will bring out the GOP vote in droves.
Apparently somebody like Biden might be OK, according to what I’ve heard from some AL Dems.
I really would defer to the judgment of AL Democrats on this.
Mr. Longman is dead right here. There are some political contests that simply test whether a political party has a soul and stands for anything at all; this is one of them. The Democratic Party can make a solid statement here on several central political-moral issues, and it has an obligation to do so.
As well, there’s a chance that Jones might win. He is by far the best candidate the Democrats could have come up with; and when the party fields such people, it has to make a serious effort to succeed. Provided this difficult contest does not turn into an opportunity for total Democratic demoralization if Jones loses, there’s everything to gain and nothing to lose. The spectacle of all-out Republican strife if Jones happened to win, and the problems Republicans would face with an even slimmer Senate majority, would be delightful — an early Christmas present of the best possible kind.
Moore has enough baggage that a reasonably sane and competent Democratic candidate (which is what Alabama is being offered) should be able to compete. As has been noted elsewhere, Moore’s last electoral battle was one he barely won. It may be a longshot for a Democratic candidate to win, but worth the DSCC ponying up some funds. From my standpoint, the worst case scenario is that Doug Jones loses but outperforms Trump last year and Sessions in his last campaign. That would be cold comfort but would continue the narrative that something is on the move in electoral politics post-2016. And who knows – we might just net us win. My friends in Alabama could use one about now.
As the commercial for the lottery says: You can’t win if you don’t play.” That certainly applies to electoral politics. The Democrats will never change things if they always ignore, and give up on, the South.
Booman writes:
And just who are these “Democratic leaders and strategists?”
They are the same ones who gave us Hillary Clinton, who in turn gave us Donald Trump.
The DNC has not changed. It’s still the Schumer/Pelosi Show.
Neocentrists abound. They will dither and dather and then decide not on what would be good for the country but rather on what will be good for themselves and their own political power bases, just as it has always been. The last time the Democratic Party truly acted with an eye to what was good for the country as a whole was when the entire economy collapsed and only a New Deal could save it from total failure.
Trust them not.
Unless Moore somehow totally fucks up, he wins.
AG