Governor Schwarzenegger’s poll number continue to fall — with a strong majority wanting someone else to lead California.
From the L.A. Times:
The nonpartisan Field Poll of registered voters found that just 39 percent said they were inclined to give Schwarzenegger a second term, while 57 percent were not. As recently as February, the numbers were almost reversed, with 56 percent saying they were inclined to re-elect Schwarzenegger and just 42 percent were not.
This is a sharp turnaround in a short amount of time.
Neither of the two announced Democratic candidates have much name recognition, but either would beat Schwarzenegger if the election were held today.
From the Sacramento Bee:
State Treasurer Phil Angelides is locked in a tight race with Schwarzenegger, leading him by a margin of 46 percent to 42 percent. That is a significant shift from February, when the Republican governor led Angelides, 52 percent to 35 percent.
State Controller Steve Westly also holds a four-point lead over Schwarzenegger in the survey, 44 percent to 40 percent. Westly trailed Schwarzenegger in February, 52 percent to 33 percent.
DiCamillo said the Democrats’ standings represent logical upswings among party voters who first and foremost don’t like Schwarzenegger, even if they are unfamiliar with their own standard-bearers – 37 percent have no opinion of Angelides and 43 percent are similarly bereft of a personal conclusion when it comes to Westly.
“Most of what you’re seeing is just kind of a name recognition,” DiCamillo said. “I don’t think voters know a lot about Angelides or Westly, but they still have them ahead of Schwarzenegger.”
Schwarzenegger’s political career will be mortally wounded if he fails at the ballot box on a series of initiatives vital to his credibility as a reformer.
Let’s see how that’s going:
From the L.A. Daily News:
The findings are the latest in a series released by Field researchers indicating Schwarzenegger, a Republican, has lost considerable ground among voters in recent months. The drop in the governor’s popularity has coincided with his push for a fall special election for voters to consider several ballot measures aimed at curbing the power of Democrats and public employee unions in state government.
Earlier installments of the poll have shown that Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings have tumbled amid voters expressing skepticism about the special election and tepid support for his ballot measures.
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” … the poll found that 83 percent of Democrats, who form the majority of the state’s registered voters, would oppose a second term, as would 61 percent of independent voters. Solid majorities of Hispanic voters and women also say they do not want to see the governor re-elected.
“This is a definite turn away from the governor,” Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. “It’s fallen so far, so fast and in a very broad-based way.”
From the San Diego Union Tribune:
After months of wrangling with public employees unions and Democrats in the Legislature, much of Schwarzenegger’s luster as a superstar celebrity politician appears to have faded.
“You close your eyes, he looks like any other politician, whereas a year ago, he had a lot of unique characteristics,” Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. “People from across the aisle viewed him positively and he was well-received by nonpartisans and – a little more than normal for a Republican – among Latinos, among younger voters. But that’s no longer there.”
Alas, now is not the time to let up. We need to defeat these measures designed to turn California into a Red State — Rove is pulling the strings on this.
For historical perspective, again from the San Diego Union Tribune:
The last two governors, Democrat Gray Davis and Republican Pete Wilson, bounced back from negative poll numbers at a comparable time to win second terms.
Wilson was widely counted out when a May 1993 Field Poll showed him trailing the eventual Democratic nominee, Kathleen Brown, by 23 percentage points and showed that 61 percent of the voters were not inclined to re-elect him. In November 1994, Wilson was re-elected in a 15-percentage-point rout.
Ms. Brown ran a horrible campaign, and had been carrying baggage from her brother and father (Jerry and Pat), both former Governors who Right Wing Republicans hold strong views against, particularly when referring to Jerry as “Gov. Moonbeam”. Many of Wilson’s advisors are now advising Schwarzenegger, but I think the inexperience of Schwarzenegger is showing, the celebrity aura is fading fast, and what is left is a egotistical Puff of Hot Air whose catch phrases from lousy movies are wearing thin on the majority of Californians desperate for true leadership.
I couldn’t be happier about Arnie’s plummeting numbers. I remember standing in line to vote against him and hearing some idiots talking about how he would clean up the state just like in the movies and made me wonder how people could be so stupid as to think that the characters he played and himself were one and the same. Then again I have to admit I never have been a fan of Arnie’s movies or him.
I’m hoping that the special election he has imperiously decreed for his 3 measures is soundly trounced and wipes that stupid grin off his face. And hopefully also will send this aging, fading muscle man back to making movies that no one will go see.
of “blowing up boxes”, etc.
Lights! Cameras! Action!
Ken Lay and Karl Rove sit and sip their brandy, brainstorming:
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Every so often there is talk of compromise between legislature and governor, but I think it’s going to happen. It’s time to send this clown back to Hollywood, and I don’t care if he makes 100 more pictures — just stop messing up the state! We are more in debt than when you started, and we still haven’t solved the structural budget deficit, and our schools are slipping back fast after improving steadily.
I wish people knew also that Arnie was meeting with Ken Lay and others before our big energy debacle perpetrated on us buy bushco and Enron.
You layed it out right on the money. What I still can’t quite fathom is how or why anyone would be stupid enough to take on nurses/teachers and firefighters for god’s sake. I kept thinking he would switch gears when he realized how disastrous that was/is but apparently like bush he can’t ever admit to being wrong. Which is good for our side anyway.
And the only ‘good for women’ I want to see associated with him is to have the nurses association help kick his ass back to hollywood.
It seems that Rob Reiner and Warren Beatty are interested in running for Governor.
We’ve suffered with Regan and Arnie, no more actors.
Yikes, can we please have a boring politician like Angelides who can actually do the work.
and I think we’re not alone in our Celebrity-As-Politician burnout. The Field Poll threw Beatty and Reiner into the mix, thus the inclusion in the news cycle. I think both have fluffed their ego a bit, but neither will run.
are behind Ahnold in the polls. I don’t think they’re going to run.
Right now, James Cameron’s desire to make “True Lies 2” is probably looking more appealing to Schwartzenegger. I’m worried that if he announces too soon that he’s not going to seek a second term, it’s going to give the Republicans enough time to find a candidate that the party can rally around, especially in the Red areas of the Central Valley.
Just a brief bit of pessimism…