by Col. W. Patrick Lang (Ret.)
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“Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, told Reuters the investigation into the raid would focus on whether the two British men were in fact handed over to the militia group and whether they were found in an annex to the jail or a private house. Iraqi authorities admitted that insurgents had infiltrated the police and other security forces in Basra and elsewhere. “Our Iraqi security forces in general, and these in particular and in many parts of Iraq, I have to admit that they have been penetrated by some of the insurgents,” Rubaie told the BBC. He said he did not know the extent of the infiltration, but said new procedures were in place to get rid of bad apples.
Officials in Basra said at least 60 percent of the police force there is made up of Shiite militiamen from one of three groups: the Mehdi Army; the Badr Brigade, the armed wing of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq; and Hizbullah in Iraq, a small group based in the southern marshlands.” Beirut Daily Star
Well, maybe the British SHOULD apologize. They were given the quietest area in Iraq. It was quiet because the Shia are waiting to see if the political struggle inspired by America’s neocon strategy will give them control of the rump state of Iraq. With Basra “in hand” the Brits set out to demonstrate the superiority of their knowledge of counter-insurgency tactics, and “how to handle Arabs.” For 2 1/2 years they have laughed at the ineptitude of the “Yanks” in trying to deal with the Sunni Arab insurgencies in the north.
Continued BELOW:
What is the result? They have largely lost control of Basra to various Shia militias and to the police who are heavily infiltrated by Shia militia. Today, they are resucing their presence in the city because the governor of the province warned them off. Is this a problem? You can bet your life it is.
Any competent military planner prepares to deal with the worst eventuality. The worst case here is that at some future time we will need unimpeded access to the roads that run south through Basra. Will the British regain control of this Line of Communications that runs south from Baghdad to Kut to Basra to Kuwait. Don’t bet on it. Britain has been a lukewarm political supporter of this enterprise from the beginning. Are they going to fight to regain control of Basra? Don’t bet on it.
And still we have people like Reuel Gerecht trying to make optimistic noises about this situation on TV… Well, he should. He is one of the architects of the situation. People like him are still talking about adopting the French “oil spot” counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq. My God!!
You could have done that two and a half years ago if you had been willing to accept the reality of the insurgency. You could have done that if you had accepted General Shinseki’s estimate of the troops needed for this campaign.
Pat Lang
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“Drinking the Kool-Aid,” Middle East Policy Council Journal, Vol. XI, Summer 2004, No. 2
I’ve been watching “The Battle of Algiers” this afternoon.
Some people just don’t take a warning seriously enough.
Sounds to me as though when the U.S. troops activate Operation Bugout they may either have to fight their way through Basra to Kuwait or negotiate a passage.
The alternative it for the troops that remain to bunker up in Baghdad, probably around the airport, and just sit there until somehow relieved. Perhaps the Bush people will mount a rescue mission in that case similar to the British going to Khartoum for Gordon. But my bet is that most Iraqis will want the American out as soon as possible, so the bunker option is unlikely.
Should it look really bad, though, the bunker move may be the best Bush can do before America’s November 2006 election, then finish the bugout right after that.
The UK didn’t recognize the problem until it hit them square in the face. Studies show that men frequently do not recognize that there is a problem with their marriages until the wife starts packing her things to leave. In the same way, the UK did not recognize that there was a problem until it was painfully obvious that the Iraqi people believe Sadr over them.
This is just like rape. The UK mistook the silence of the Basra Iraqis for consent to be occupied, with disastrous consequences.
Great analogy, Eternal Hope. Men, bless ’em, can be that way.
But then, we did have a lot of men — former generals, admirals, colonels (like Pat), and on and on — who opposed this war and opposed this president. It was tragic that they did not get the AIR TIME to speak out.
Will the British “fight for Basra” in the same way that the US “fought for Fallujah”? No. If you look into the causes of the riots you will find that they go back to the arrest of three major supporters of Sadr who were arrested by the British over the weekend. The police had conducted an operation to arrest those suspected of planting the roadside devices that have been going off recently but (it is thought because of the infiltration) they had not arrested these three who are alleged to be directing the violence.
What almost certainly will happen is than a negotiated “blood money” payment will be made to the families in accordance with the local traditions and the matter will die down. Despite the lack of reporting, there have been a number of cases of discontent being expressed and then the violence dying down. In any case, the whole city is far from rising up. The demonstrations involved maybe a couple of hundred people – roughly 0.1% of Basra’s population. To some extent this was formented by the radio broadcasts from Iran which claimed the two had fired on pilgrims. Is there a worrying trend for the police and army to have divided loyalties between the militia and the official organisation, yes. But any suggestion that a few thousand British troops can impose their will by violence on a population of hundreds of times that number is purely fanciful.
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The UK contingent is down from 35,000 to 8,500, in addition many coalition troops under UK Command have left Iraq: Spain, partly Poland and the Netherlands.
The British strategy is the same as where the Dutch were very successful: cooperation and coexistence with the local government. The liason on a daily basis with the local police and government is this lifeline to gather intelligence on subversive elements in the city and region. Meanwhile training the police forces to take over authority.
Following the Dutch closely, on just a few occasions the Dutch got into problems – and lost two men during their stay. These moments were when the U.S. Army pressured the militia of Muqtada Al Sadr near the holy sites of Najaf and the second attack launched by the U.S. on Fallujah and the UK Blackwatch Forces offered U.S. support near Baghdad.
During a period – April 2004 – the Dutch lost all cooperation and received no further intelligence. Rogue elements of Al Sadr militia from outside the province came in, got local support and launched terror attacks
on the Dutch forces. In analogy, the Brits have just lost their eyes and ears to know what is happening in Basra. A dangerous and ominous sign, for the Iraqis have just one loyalty: Allah – thus the Islam – and Nationalism.
When the Al Sadr militia came in, they got full cooperation from not only local citizens, but also the police and local administration. Reminds me of a Dutch acquaintance in the oil business for over thirty years in Saudi Arabia. He meets with the Saudis regularly, believed he made friends but there remains a separation undefined. He knows when violence would break out, he has to watch his back especially for these friends. Iraq is a keg of powder, one never knows if and when it will ignite.
To the contrary, I have made lifelong friendship with several Arab nationals in the Netherlands and in the U.S.
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