For one time, let us take Bob Novak seriously. (Despite easy ridicule and nomination for the Misinformer of the year title.) When he talks about conservative problems, he may be trustworthy. He writes in the last column:
December 26, 2005
BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
Trent Lott within the next week plans to decide between seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate from Mississippi or retiring from public life. That could determine whether Republicans keep control of the Senate in next year’s elections. For the longer range, Lott’s retirement and replacement could signal that Southern political realignment has peaked and now is receding.
Is it really so bad for the cons that their well being is dependant on retirement of a single Senator? Will we see the end of “moralize and moralize, scare and scare, elect and elect” conservativism soon?
Repubs seem to be desperate to keep Lott in the seat.
Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman pleaded with Lott last week to run again. The senator was as blunt with this emissary from President Bush as he was with me. “Where is our vision and our agenda?” he asked. The malaise afflicting the Bush administration not only threatens a Senate seat in Mississippi but impacts Lott’s decision whether to retire.
Where is the vision and the agenda?! Remind me who told that conservatives are so full of ideas and vision… The corrupt corporate lobby is probably all the vision GOP has.
And then there are classical GOP dirty combinations that need to be rectified for electoral occasions:
Now Bush needs a ‘fantastic new house’ out of these rubbles…
But this is hardly a reason for Lott to leave conservative fellas in need. Rather seriously, his ‘personal financial condition has deteriorated’ since Hurricane Katrina.
Lott wonders what his senatorial role would be beginning his fourth term at age 65 without a leadership position or significant committee chairmanship. Sen. John McCain has urged Lott to return as leader of Senate Republicans (succeeding Bill Frist, who is leaving the Senate). But that would require an aggressive campaign against Majority Whip Mitch McConnell that Lott is not inclined to pursue.
Meanwhile, ‘Mississippi Republicans are anxious‘… Bob “Novakula” says that ‘the bedrock of [conservative] national election victories’ may be eroding. One of the things is
Perhaps 2005 was a dramatic year for the Buckley-Reagan-Bushies line of conservativism, after all.
[Crossposted at Daily Kos.]
I think Novak’s spreading disinformation. While I do believe that conservatism has jumped the shark with the Bush Presidency I do not believe that post-Katrina Mississippi will suddenly start voting for ‘centrist’ Democrats if Lott retires. Indeed, with the diaspora, both post-Katrina Mississippi and Lousiana have become more socially conservative, republican and indifferent to the plight of the poor.
As I recall in those two states Bush’s approval ratings went up post-Katrina.
Now Texas is another matter..
According to SurveyUSA, Bush is at 48/49 approve/disapproval in Mississippi this month. That doesn’t bode particularly well for anyone running for national office. In a race for an open seat, a Democrat who was known enough to voters that s/he didn’t have to spend a lot of time on introductions (former AG Mike Moore) could easily make the race about Bush’s incompetence and the need for a new direction in Congress.
I think that Republicans would be a lot more comfortable if Lott ran again since he’d be reelected. An open seat, however, is a different story. There’s dislike of Bush to consider. Also, Mississippi is just over one-third African-American, and I’m not sure anyone should or could underestimate just how angry African-Americans are at this Administration.