IMO This is not just another Y2K, Swine Flu, government or media-crying-wolf-again situation.
I might have actually believed that myself had I not previously read a chapter of The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Plague in History, by John M Barry. My own copy arrived recently, from Powell’s and I’m about half way through it. (diary to come later)
I would highly recommend reading of this book particularly if you are inclined to discount the possible severity of an avian pandemic. I sincerely believe that it is a necessity to educate ourselves on this issue.
As we have seen with our gov/FEMA response to Katrina, it is not likely we will be getting much help from that quarter. I think we will be on our own on this one and we ought to plan accordingly.
more:
Flu Pandemic to be discussed on Oprah
Bird Flu: The Untold Story (PG)
You’ve heard reports, but is it really headed our way? How dangerous is it and can it be stopped? What you need to know now to protect your family. A huge eye-opener!
Oprah’s guest is Michael T. Osterholm , Dr. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP)
Many lives will depend on this man’s ability. This will be an opportunity for us to assess his capabilities.
Local listings for Oprah’s show here
Feel free to post to dKos. I’ve not got the energy for it.
I’m surprised there hasn’t been more discussion on this.
I’m hoping the Oprah show will be the tipping point that brings a serious focus on the issue.
Have you been to the Flu Wiki? It’s been around for a year or so and is a good resource for pandemic information.
I’ve been interested in the possibility of flu pandemics since learning that one of the first known outbreaks of the 1918 flu was in Fort Riley, Kansas (Camp Funston to be exact). Which was where my mother-in-law’s father was stationed right about that time (we don’t have any flu stories from him).
I almost bought that book last weekend. How is it written, are you enjoying it?
Thanks for the Flu Wikie link. I’ve been there, but forgot to include it. The only reason my grandfather missed the fighting in WWI was his group was quarantined.
Barry’s The Great Influenza is well written. Also actually a fascinating account of medical history leading up to the time of the pandemic. I’ll probably buy another to have a loaner on hand. I doubt anyone will realize the potential severity without reading it.
The gov lied to the people back then too, which was a contributing factor to the spead of it.
I would not say I was “enjoying” it, but I do consider reading it a necessity for survival.
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Diary search results @BooTrib on Avian Flu H5N1!
There has been quite some attention here and @ European Tribune
Europe is fully prepared for a begin of Avian H5N1 Flu Pandemic, and the Netherlands has gone through a lighter variant a few years ago and have gained excellent research data.
The Dutch are well prepared!President George Bush and Minister of Defense Rumsfeld on Avian Flu and Martial Law in the United States in the wake of the Katrina FEMA failures.
IMO the Bush cabal want to use the fear for Avian Flu to strengthen executive power within CDC and DoD.
@EuroTrib - Thu Oct 6th, 2005Very likely enjoys scaring people, new WMD is the bio attack from Yellow Asians – H5N1 Avian flu.
Beware, DoD Donald Rumsfeld will get the authority and lead in fighting terra within our own borders. The multi-billion space shield will be restyled by Media Center to combat incoming wild ducks, geese and all environmentally threatening winged cousins spreading disease and targeting U.S. cities.
Lack of Armed Forces to operate within our borders will force Gen. Casey – oh irony – to pull back our forces from Afghanistan and eventually Iraq. Logistics operating Just In Time before Election 2006.
Elevated threat levels at Homeland Security will be adapted to cover migration trends, no not illegal border crossings, we have our minutemen doing that job, but migration of birds flying across the Aleutians, Alaska and heading South toward our great nation.
Our freedom needs to be defended at home, thank you great leader of the Xtian Right.
Perhaps this administration has a foundation being YELLOW!
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
Great Links Oui, as usual we can count on you for a comprehensive list.
I’m deeply concerned that BushCo will resort to martial law. It appears that very little is being done on a national level to prepare. Which would seem to be a set-up as then they will have an excuse, having created the emergency.
There are as yet no state or local plans in my area. However there are state, city and local officials meeting every week or two.
So the newspapers have relayed the national gov message that dealing with any pandemic will be a state and local issue. State and local remain unprepared, especially with regards to the extensive European preparations.
Got any ideas why this remains such a non-issue with the public?
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Got any ideas why …
Sorry NorstDakotaDemocrat, sometimes I believe just be stalwart, deaf and blind, and stay focused on a better future of HOPE!
On Avian Flu, the wild bird migration spreads the virus along know migration routes. That is how the H5N1 virus was tracked to Russia, Romania and Turkey.
Not much attention, but across the border of SE Turkey, the virus has spread into Kurdish North Iraq. Only chance to halt spread to domestic chicken farms is to avoid contact with ducks and geese and keep chickens inside or at least under a cover. I don’t think the U.S. population is in danger, nor is it likely the virus will mutate to a human form.Need to keep the explosion of virus in underdeveloped countries in check. The EU and UN have programs ready to assist with funds and scientists.
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
Oui,”…I don’t think the U.S. population is in danger, nor is it likely the virus will mutate to a human form…”
Have you read The Great Influenza? I’d be much more likely to be reassured if you have the same thoughts on completion of that.
I appreciate your input Oui!
at least not so much of a danger to that segment of the population with the resources to purchase quality medical treatment.
We cannot know, at this time, what decision Washington may make regarding the flu.
The more acute and definite dangers involve the measures prepared in order to “protect” Americans in the event of an “emergency,” regardless of the nature of that emergency.
It would appear that this particular flu is something of a work in progress:
The BushCabal may well try and take advantage of the fear as this is their usual MO, to frighten, but give the people nothing constructive to do with that fear (which eventually turns the fear to a smoldering hysteria).
But I think the events may have conspired against them. I think the progress of the bird flu and of the halting but well publicized international effort to stem that tide have made their initial plan unworkable. They have been forced to be more constructive from both within and without. (Even then, they steer it to the benefit of their global corporate friends, but at least it points to the seriousness of the issue.)
I agree that the BushCabal will use the threat of pandemic flu as a distraction at key times. I also agree that they will use it (or biological terror ala their efforts on anthrax) to justify more amputations of individual freedoms from the constitution in favor of government power. These steps are well within their nature and past practice. I agree with your concerns on these issues.
What concerns me even more; however, is that after 20 years of being told the most effective and most moral attitude is “looking out for #1” and “the government is your enemy”, if we as a country are asked to stand together against a storm surge such as H5N1 would present, I am not at all certain whether the levees would hold.
The economic reforms that made up FDR’s new deal were in no small part an effort to keep the people of this country satisfied with the democratic form of government and the capitalist form of economy. When both had failed to provide the essentials for life, other peoples around the globe had looked elsewhere. We may face these pressures again if the people find that their systems have failed them.
If the full brunt of a pandemic hits us, then without public leadership reaching out to the people with information, plans for cooperative and individual action, and calls for standing together, the society we know may be changed much for the worse.
I had not heard of either example you gave above (re: banks and camps) and view them with dismay (and – as should be with all posts – measured skepticism.) But as with the other strategies discussed above, both are well within what we could expect of the current administration. So I will be searching for more information on both. Thank you.
in the US has already progressed sufficiently so that as you say, companies can count on the “levees not holding,” and this will indeed pave the way for some very dramatic changes in how Americans live.
These changes, however, will come about as planned, whether the mechanism is “bird flu” or some other agent, biological or otherwise.
For all the reasons you state, I am increasingly of the opinion that the inevitable “correction” will be externally imposed, simply because The World Can’t Wait – and considering what they would be waiting for, in my opinion, they have waited too long already.
Generally I share your concerns on the martial law aspect of gov intentions,DT. Particularly after Bush tried to push Gov Blanco into accepting what would have amounted to martial law during that emergency, and then afterwords BushCo began the spin campaign for Congress to give him/military martial law powers in “emergencies.”
As to, “…that segment of the population with the resources to purchase quality medical treatment…” Normally I’d agree, but from what I’ve learned so far of the 1918 pandemic “quality medical treatment” of that day was of little help once the medical establishment was overrun with patients.
For an example of present concerns with regards to available inventories/services; you may ask your medical sources what remaining capacity exists with regards to ventilators.
Locally we are running at close to 95 percent now. The remaining capacity would likely be overwhelmed within hours, not days, or weeks. At which point personal (financial) resources would be nearly irrelevant.
Another aspect; we already have a nursing shortage, then you add a percentage of those who may not make it to work due to their illness or family illness, same for Drs, other health care workers.
In 1918 those with money attempted bribes with nurses to no avail. There are times in history when money and wealth have become irrelevant, (at least for the short term.)
aspect, and in the event that the decision is made to implement an epidemic of avian flu in the US, ventilators would indeed provide a very clear illustration of the law of supply and demand.
I imagine that nurses would be no more bribable today than in 1918, however, I am confident that adequate security measures would be in place to protect nurses from such attempts and insure that financial arrangements were handled by the appropriate hospital officials.
Also, it should be pointed out that there have been many advances since 1918, and that not all persons who contract the disease will need a respirator.
They will, however, need medical treatment for symptoms and prevention and early intervention for secondary infections, and America’s commercial health care system will be able to maintain its market-driven standards in such an emergency.
Those members of the underclass who remain uninfected or survive without treatment will be healthier, younger, and therefore offer the highest profit potential to employers, thus the net effect of such an operation would, like Operation Crescent Cleansing and Medicare D, be as business-friendly post event as would the event itself.
Yes, the spread of H5N1 amoung migratory birds (and from them to domestic poultry) is probably unstoppable. It has become endemic in parts of Asia and will likely do so elsewhere as well.
I am interested to know why you say it is unlikey to mutate to human form. Recent mutations found in the Turkey variant of H5N1 take it one or two steps closer to effecient transmission between humans, a journey it has been on for some time. While it may not reach that destination, it is the horse with the best (worst for us) odds right now and is clearly moving in that direction. Even taking the #s in Turkey over a two week period compared to the 2+ year totals before that show that H5N1 has learned some new, unpleasant tricks. It is mutating, rapidly. The direction of those mutations has been toward increasing ability to infect humans. It is a fire that is moving towards the dry grass and we have nothing yet to put it out. It may burn out itself, but if not, it will burn all that cannot outrun it.
Why have we not heard more about it. The keepers around the world are afraid of the public. They are floundering and mired in their panic that we might panic, so they hide information that would allow us to prepare.
In the 1918 influenza pandemic, government lies and media complicity combined to refuse to recognize the true threat. When what the people saw with their own eyes was denied or unreported by the official news, it turned natural, well-reasoned fear into the dark unreasoned panic of hysteria found only in the imagination of man when they find they have been lied to “for their own good.”
Hope this does not happen again with this issue.
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Those persons infected die within very short period and with quarantine will not infect sufficient number of people to be able to spread and become pandemic. Fatality rate for humans is 50%.
Similar to the ability of African Ebola virus in jungle environment to kill all persons within a small village. Persons have died before outside medical assistance has arrived, certainly the persons with the disease are unable to travel far before succumbing to the disease.
The Ebola virus is a member of the family filoviridae and the order mononegavirales and is the causative agent of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola HF). Ebola is severe and often fatal among both humans and nonhuman primates with mortality rates reaching as high as 90% in some outbreaks.
Ebola virus was named for the river in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Zaire) in Africa where it was first recognized in 1976. Four strains of Ebola have since been identified: Ebola-Zaire, Ebola-Sudan, Ebola-Ivory Coast, and Ebola-Reston. All but Ebola-Reston are known to cause disease in humans.
To date, the origin and natural reservoir of Ebola virus is unknown, but it is believed to be zoonotic and maintained in a small animal (yet unidentified) that is native to Africa. As a result, it is unknown exactly how the virus spreads from animals to humans, but it is presumed to be by contact with an infected animal. Humans have also been infected from handling infected primates.
See also the nvCJD diary and the great danger due to incubation period up to 30-40 years. Once infected by the prions, the disease is fatal and no one escapes. The U.K. and the EU are very lucky that due to harsh culling of the lifestock, further infection transmission to humans has been stopped and looking at the number of human cases now dropping, will not grow to thousands of fatalities first feared.
“But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
I don’t think the fatality rate is 50%. Even in Asia, it is 50% of the identified and confirmed cases (generally those admitted to hosptial.) The number of actually infected, the number needing care but not doctor or hospital is not known.
The fatality rate (whatever it was) has apparently dropped in Turkey, consistent with the mutations identified with the strain of H5N1 in Turkey.
So I am afraid your assessment may be optimistic. I hope not, but fear so.
Looks like Oprah’s going to let the Bird Flu out of the bag. Osterholm is a serious resource on this issue and does not pull his punches. He is also not part of any Wag the Bird effort.
I do not doubt that Bush&Co would use something like this to consolidate their power by implying it was somehow a terrorist plot (see recent government warnings of bioterror), but that is truly the flea on the elephant if this thing breaks loose like it could.
Another good resource for discussion and information I have found is the Flu Clinic at Current Events:
http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40.
Posters include a wide variety of perspectives from around the US and various affected nations. It is difficult to add one more thing to the list of items we should be concerned about and working on, but I would highly recommend that folks here at Booman Tribune take the time to investigate this issue for themselves and then act accordingly.
I have, and while I am hoping for the best, I am preparing for close to the worst.