Joe Lieberman jumped ship today. He pledged to run for reelection to his Connecticut Senate seat even if he loses the August 8th primary. Lieberman is engaged in some kind of verbal jujitsu, wherein he denies that an independent, unaffiliated run for the Senate against a Democrat and a Republican would prevent him from running as a Democrat. He claims he will merely be a ‘petitioning Democrat’.
Not so. The party must and will support Ned Lamont. If they don’t there will be hell to pay. But they will support Ned. The question is really, how much will the party support Ned? Will Schumer and Reid shower him with money? Will they campaign for him.
I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that Lieberman has just guaranteed that he will lose the primary. He was already down to a 55%-40% lead. But, in refusing to respect the outcome of the primary, he has just alienated the primary voters. I don’t think he can recover.
The question then becomes, who will win in November? Lamont, Lieberman, or Republican Alan Schlesinger? I’m really not sure who should be favored. Lieberman won re-election in 2000 63-34. Left alone by Lamont, he probably would have won re-election with numbers in the high 50’s. If the Republicans have a 34% base of support, it is possible that Schlesinger could win a three-way race. The main reason I don’t see that happening is that Lieberman should garner enough support from Republicans to deny Schlesinger 34%. The question then becomes, how much Democratic support can Lieberman retain? I expect a very close election. Too close to call. I doubt anyone will top 40%.
One thing I am sure of. The Netroots just flexed their muscles and Lieberman blinked. This is our first, real, tangible victory. Joe Lieberman has been forced out of the party. He will lose the primary. If we have to grudgingly accept him back into the fold in November, so be it. I hope the good people of Connecticut will not make the wrong decision.
You can contribute to Ned Lamont here. It will make you feel better.
Also, you can help out NYBri in his New York State Senate race by attending his fund raiser in Manhattan on July 10th.
For years we’ve heard railings (mostly from the right-wing) about “incumbent dominance” and how we need term limits to rein in their power.
Now that we see that the electoral system is working as it’s supposed to, folks like George Will (great baseball writer, lousy political writer) are talking about the “Connecticut Civil War”.
If Lieberman has really served the citizens of Connecticut properly, he has nothing to worry about — he can just run on his record. Oh wait, no wonder he’s panicking…
This idea that Liberman could maybe win outside of one of the major political parties has a good side indirectly, IMO. Party machine politics has NOT been good for this country as I see it, and any sign that would show that voters are willing to ditch the strict party affiliation and voting patterns might be a good sign for the long term?? I mean the greens would love to see such a thing. Even though I would not like to see Lieberman win anything, seeing the strict party machine being broken would be nice to see, again IMO!
Depends. Lieberman winning anyway wouldn’t exactly be a major blow to the Democratic Party machine. Being forced to put up with Lamont for six, twelve, or eighteen years would do more to frustrate and discredit them.
Frankly, it is my hope that we can get Bernie Sanders, Ned Lamont, and Sherrod Brown elected. That will do a lot for progressive politics in the Senate and Russ Feingold won’t find himself all alone 90% of the damn time.
Yes, you are a specifics person on this subject.
My intention is to just point out the process changes that might indicate a loosening up of the electoral system in America, which might be a good thing. If we could only then figure out how to stop requirement for being a zillionaire in order to run in the first place, then we would be on our way??
Yes, you are a specifics person on this subject.
My intention is to just point out the process changes that might indicate a loosening up of the electoral system in America, which might be a good thing. If we could only then figure out how to stop requirement for being a zillionaire in order to run in the first place, then we would be on our way??
Sorry about the double posting, as I must have hit the submit button two times quickly.
BTW, if you post the same thing twice, does it have twice the impact??
If there was a serious question in his camp about winning the primary, he should have abandoned it with a calculated “Democratic party has abandoned American values” speech and brazened it out as an independent. On the other hand, if he was still confident of winning the primary then he could have gotten a big boost by announcing that he was a Democrat who respected the process. Either choice would have been better than trying to have it both ways.
Now if he wins the primary anyway, hedging his bets reflects badly on him. If he loses the primary, then he goes into the general as a loser. Who wants to vote for a loser?
I’ll go on record and say that Lieberman won’t break 30% in the general election if he has to run as an independent. Politicians rarely pull out of downward spirals like that.
Let’s hope that instead of “jumping ship,” he’s walking the plank and is about to be pushed down into the watery depths. Yo Ho, Joe Must Go!
Lieberman is engaged in some kind of verbal jujitsu, wherein he denies that an independent, unaffiliated run for the Senate against a Democrat and a Republican would prevent him from running as a Democrat. He claims he will merely be a ‘petitioning Democrat’.
That’s not jujitsu, that’s outrageous bullshit. ‘Petitioning Democrat’, my ass.
I’m guessing that Lieb’s internal polling does not paint a pretty picture.
You can contribute to Ned Lamont here. It will make you feel better.
That’s true. Contributing to Lamont’s campaign actually does make me feel better.
What I wanna know, is are we going to call to task all of these Democrats like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and ask them if they are going to take back their endorsements. I can only imagine the endorsements were motivated by some sort of “party loyalty”, which clearly means nothing to Joe.
and if Lieberman runs as an independent, and splits the vote giving the seat to the Republicans, guess who the DLC-types are going to blame? Lamont and the “netroots” for “fracturing the party”, of course…
Joe is just about ready and cooked.
“Also, you can help out NYBri in his New York State Senate race by attending his fund raiser in Manhattan on July 10th.”
Who else will be there? I’ve already confirmed in Tom Ball’s diary entry very early Sunday morning (here from a recap he did today).
You write:
‘The question is really, how much will the party support Ned? Will Schumer and Reid shower him with money? Will they campaign for him.”:
Money would help. I just sent mine. If they send him theirs…which I VERY much doubt, except in token amounts…that would be fine.
But campaign for him?
Lamont might very well be better off WITHOUT the “help” of people like Schumer, Emanuel and Reid.
really.
Listen…Connecticut has a serious unemployment problem, and a HUGE Black and Hispanic potential voter bloc. (These two group overlap, of course.) Now I am here to ell you…minority voters have sense enough to come in out of the rain, especially when the weatherman says rain but the rain has been smelling suspiciously like piss for about 30 or 40 years. That is why the “minority” vote has been shrinking. Why vote? They get pissed upon by both parties.
Now if and when they see Schumer and Reid out there personally supporting someone, they will head for shelter. Bet on it. With damned good reason, on the evidence of a number of decades. But if Lamont can make a case…a REAL case…that he is the anti-Lieberman, they will vote in droves.
Let me tell you a little story about my day’s adventures.
I went out about 2 pm to do some grocery shopping. Into my working class Bronx neighborhood that abuts on a wealthy neighborhood called Riverdale. I am a good sized white Irishman who could very easily be (and has been) mistaken for an off duty or retired Irish cop, many of whom live here cheek by jowl with about 20 other races of all colors and walks of life. So I’m walking down the street to where my car is parked on this hot, bright summer day dressed pretty loose..,.old pants, a t-shirt untucked, didn’t shave…and a small, Spanish-looking woman about of 50 stops me and asks about an address she can’t find. The streets are VERY confusing in this neighborhood and I only have an estimate of where it is…up a long hill and somewhere off to the left a few blocks…but it’s hot and I’m in no rush, so I say “I’m headed to my car…I’ll give you a lift up the hill and help you find it.” I half expect her to say no out of perfectly understandable Bronx NY caution, but instead she looks me over and says “Yes. That would be very nice. Thank you.” And into my car we get.
Now I know her culture pretty well…I can tell by the way she looks and dresses and moves and speaks that she is what we call “Nuyorican” here…NY-bred Puertoriqueño…and I have been PART of that culture musically at the highest levels for over 30 years. So as we’re driving up the hill I ask her “Do you listen to much latin music?” And she brightens right up and says yes. So I tell her who I’ve played with, and it turns out that her cousin is Pete “El Condé” Rodruquez and her aunt was Celia Cruz. I worked with both of them. And suddenly we are friends, etc, etc, etc.
Family, even. Really.
Why tell this story here?
Because if I had NOT given the right signals…for example if I had been walking down the street with someone who looks and dresses like Charles Schumer, self-important lying windbag that he really is…this woman most likely WOULD NOT HAVE VOTED FOR ME.
As a potential ally in a a largely unfriendly world.
Would not have put her self-respect on the line just to get a short and unfriendly “No”, as in “We’re too important to be bothered with such as you.” She would probably have walked up and down that hill 20 times before she asked something of someone who gave out the wrong cultural pheromones. And she SURE as hell wouldn’t have voted with the safety of her own ass and gotten into a car with some strong but wrong motherfucker.
Lamont probably doesn’t have much in the way of street creds if he is a cable TV mogul anyway, and he CERTAINLY does not need to LOSE any of those creds by standing next to dedicated squares of the Schumer/Rahm/Reid type. Not that they will touch him with a ten foot pole anyway, more than likely, but still…
I’m just sayin’…
You dig?
AG
I don’t know how much Schumer or Reid could help among black and hispanic voters. But, their blessing confers a certain credibility among a different Connecticut constituency.
At the core, Schumer is annoyed to have to spend any money at all on the Connecticut race because it should have been (from his perspective) one of the safest seats to defend. No DSCC money was budgeted for it, I’m sure.
So, this money needs to come out of McClaskill, or Tester, or Klobucher’s pocket now and Schumer is unhappy. But them’s the breaks. We’ll pick up a lot of the slack right here in raising money for those candidates.
Lieberman’s decision is very awkward for his buddies in the Senate. They don’t want to have lunch with him and then go to a rally for his opponent in the afternoon. Office politics, really. Some friends of Joe are going to be quiet, others will back him with subtle pats on the back. No one wants to spend the next six years with a pissed of Lieberman OR a pissed of Lamont.
This is just another reason to call Lieberman a dick.
Schumer has indirectly encouraged Lieberman to run as an independent by refusing to ask him not to and by refusing to commit to supporting the winner of the primary. He did that again yesterday on Meet the Press. Andrea Mitchell tried to pin him down on whether he would support Lamont if Lamont won the primary, and he flat out refused to say that he would. All he would say is that he and Reid and the DSCC support Lieberman and expect that he will win the primary. Had he said the winner of the primary will enjoy the enthusiastic support of the party machinery I doubt Lieberman would have done what he did today because you are right about this move almost guaranteeing a primary win for Lamont. Reading between the lines, I think Lieberman anticipates the backing of Schumer and the DSCC if he runs as an independent.
I really believe that the DSCC would eliminate the entire primary process if they could. They want to annoint the candidates of their choice whether the voters like their choices or not.
who are creating reality! What a relief to know that somebody else is giving them a little competition.
thanks to lea-p commenting over at roger ailes (the good one), we’ve got the phone numbers of the dscc over at skippy.
call them and let them know we will not support someone who deserts the party, and, more to the point, we will definitely not stand for any other democrat that condones such a move, or refuses to support the democratic nominee in any senate race.
I, personally, believe that party loyalty is a much overvalued commodity in this nation of ours. In my own opinion, loyalty to one’s convictions and values is more valuable and laudable than loyalty to one’s political party. And though my own personal (and political) convictions are lightyears to the left of Joe’s, I could never really disparage him for being true his convictions, neoconservative as they may be, even when the net result is a betrayal of his own party.
Where I do fault Joe Lieberman is in his trying to have it both ways. Does Joe stand for Democratic Party values, or doesn’t he? Does the Democratic Party’s platform sync up with Joe’s own, or doesn’t it? If yes, then Joe should commit to running for the Democratic Party’s nomination and accept the decision his party makes in August. If no, then Joe should, right here and now, disavow the Democratic Party and run independently (or with a third party), and let the chips fall where they may. To my mind, there’s no shame in either choice. But Joe’s refusal to do either makes it evident, to me at least, that this betrayal is rooted solely in Joe’s own craven urge to retain his Senate seat for another six years, and in absolutely no principle or value beyond that.
To that I say: ick.
Patrick Meighan
Venice, CA
This is most troubling. Senator Clinton is preparing to support Ned Lamont.
What foul treachery is afoot? What is the Senator up to? Has she taken on a new apprentice since Darth Maul was cut in half by Jedi Knights? The Sith always work in pairs.
Has Lamont been turned to the dark side? It is difficult to tell. The shroud of the dark side has fallen.
…that Lieberman will lose the primary.
Everybody who knows me in wwwLand is well aware of the big gap in my learnin’ and analytical ability: I’m the world’s worst when it comes to electoral prognostication, even though I read much of the same stuff everybody else does. Part of this, I suppose, comes from having been burned so many times before. My record of looking at the data and coming up with a reasonable prediction from it is grim. So anything I have to say in the case of Lamont-Lieberman should be taken with several more grains of salt than whatever you use when spicing my other comments.
The last time I was the contrarian and actually publicly predicted a winner in a race that mattered was in 1972. Everyone was so in despair over George McGovern and what he would do to down-ticket races that they ignored what seemed evident to me. Even most of his own handlers privately predicted Floyd Haskell (who later married Nina Totenberg) was going to lose his Senate race against Gordon Allott in Colorado because, well, because the polls still had him behind 9 days before the election, the last poll that was taken.
Why so few people looked at Haskell’s steady upward trend and failed to do the math surprised me. When I drew the graph, it showed Haskell would win by the narrowest of margins if the trend in the polls continued for those 9 days. Which is exactly what happened.
So, with my best effort 34 years old, and practically everybody I respec t seeing Lieberman in the loser’s circle (and Lieberman obviously seeing that possibility, too), my perspective is perhaps akin to some witchy reading of tossed finger-bones.
In fact, that is 75% of the source of my analysis – a visceral feeling that all of us who want to see Joe ousted and the national leadership of the party hardening its stand on Iraq before election day are going to be disappointed on August 8. Naturally, I hope I’m wrong. And maybe you and others will change my mind in the next month, but right now …
And this is why ideological purity is vital, folks. Unless your candidates are bound to your party by ideology, they’ll jump ship and kill your prospects the second someone says “Hey, you know, we’d really appreaciate you not stabbing us in the back, k?”
Electability isn’t.