You know, I just cannot figure out what the Israeli strategy is supposed to be.  I just can’t and it is incredibly frustrating.

As I’ve said, I lived in Israel.  I was attending a Jewish school, where I was practically the only Gentile, and I learned a great deal not only about Jewish history but also the Jewish Israeli mindset.  

Everything that Israel has done in the past, from the 1973 war to the systematic repression of civil rights, has made sense to me.  That doesn’t mean I agree with what Israel has done – it just made sense.  If a man beats his wife or robs a bank, I can’t agree or condone that behavior, but it does make some kind of sense (for the guy’s perspective anyway).  

But this latest war.. I just can’t figure it out.  Boo and others feel there is some kind of “master strategy” at play, with the Bush White House and the Olmert government carrying out a pre-planned procedure to achieve some greater goal, such as containing/hurting Iran and/or getting American peacekeepers to patrol southern Lebanon.  I however just don’t see it.
Today (August 8) there was a heck of a meeting of the UN Security Council, where the Lebanese representative begged and pleaded for an immediate ceasefire.  Not an end to all hostilities, just a STOPPAGE of the fighting, the carnage and death.  Bolton didn’t speak but Israel’s ambassador, Dan Gillerman, continued his previous theme that Israel was bombing Lebanon for Lebanon’s own good.  Like the classic figure of an abusive parent using corporal discipline on a child, saying “this hurts me more than it hurts you”.

Yesterday the Arab States unanimously endorsed Lebanese PM Siniora’s 7 point plan after an impassioned speech by Siniora.  I saw it myself live (thanks BBC!) and it was unbelievable.  Siniora broke down into tears as he described the awfulness of having innocent women and children die while the major powers continue to dicker over the wording of a ceasefire resolution.  

The transcript of today’s UN meeting is not yet online but I went and looked through previous transcripts, which you can find here in English.  

On July 20, 2006, the UN Security Council met, with the French representative holding the (rotated) presidential seat.  Here is Mr. De La Sabliere describing a recent UN delegation’s visit to Lebanon:

In Beirut, the mission met twice, on 16 and 17 July, with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri. Both the Prime Minister and the Speaker expressed great pain and frustration over the scope of Israel’s military actions in Lebanon, which they said were causing misery to the ordinary people of the country and inflicting serious damage on Lebanon’s infrastructure and future economic capacity. Both were almost incredulous that Israel would carry out actions that would, in their view, inevitably help Hizbollah in the long run by increasing misery and radicalizing public opinion.

Indeed.  At that point in time, the UN reported that there were 500,000 Lebanese who were either refugees or unable to relocate from the areas that Israel was bombing, one third of those being children.  Today that number has doubled to almost a million – literally one fourth of Lebanon’s population!

The UN also said it had tried to arrange a “safe conduct route” with Israel so that it could move humanitarian supplies into the country but Israel refused to do,  although Gillerman (Israeli ambassador) said in that SAME meeting that Israel would allow such a safe-conduct corridor.

Here is the Secretary General (Kofi Annan) speaking at a second meeting on July 20:

Israel states that it has no quarrel with the Government or the people of Lebanon and that it is taking extreme precautions to avoid harm to them. Yet a number of its actions have killed or hurt Lebanese civilians and military personnel and caused great damage to infrastructure. While Hizbollah’s actions are deplorable and, as I have said, Israel has a right to defend itself, the excessive use of force is to be condemned.

But while Israel has stated its military objectives to be to hit Hezbollah’s infrastructure and physical strength, it has, in the words of the Lebanese Prime Minister, torn the country to shreds. As Prime Minister Siniora also said yesterday, no Government can survive on the ruins of a nation.

The mission reports many of its interlocutors in the region as noting that, whatever damage Israel’s operations may be doing to Hizbollah’s military capabilities, they are doing little or nothing to decrease popular support for Hizbollah in Lebanon or the region but are doing a great deal to weaken the Government of Lebanon. In short, the very Government which Israel wants to extend its control throughout the territory has itself become a hostage to the crisis, is less able than ever to deploy its forces in the areas necessary to control Hizbollah and is appealing to the international community for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.

Again, I have often found myself condemning Israel’s actions (as well as those of many of its neighbors) but I always understood them.  However I cannot even understand how Israeli leaders would think this war benefits them.  

Here’s more classic Gillerman, from July 30:

This is a horrible, sad and bloody Sunday. This is a day on which we mourn and grieve, together with the people of Lebanon, at the deaths of the innocents and civilians in Kafr Qana. Those people, including women and children, who were killed in this horrible, tragic incident may have been killed by Israeli fire, but they are the victims of Hizbollah…  If there were no Hizbollah, this would never have happened.

I guess they had to destroy Qana (a second time) in order to save it.

Meanwhile the destruction of hospitals, bridges, power plants and other completely civilian infrastructure continues.  So does the bombing and death of Christian and Sunni areas in Lebanon.  Israel continues to say it wants peace while simultaneously doing just about everything possible to incur the entire world’s wrath.  Well, the entire world except for about half of the United States, including the neocon administration.

On August 6, the German paper Welt am Sonntag went to Israel and interviewed PM Olmert.  It’s quite shocking to see the level of his arrogance.

Here are some quotes, translated by me (with machine help):

Q: How do you explain that after three weeks of the most violent bombardments of Lebanon, Hizb Allah is still able to fire hundreds of rockets and kill Israelies?

Olmert: If success is based only on how many Katyusha rockets Hizb Allah can fire, we would not have had to begin this war at all.

Really? Then what’s the point of invading Lebanon and bombing its mosques, apartment buildings and airport?  Or hitting Palestinian refugee camps? Or UN compounds?

Q: What consequences are you referring to? [asked in reference to Olmert saying Hizb Allah didn’t know what they were in for when they began the conflict]

Olmert: The destruction of a large part of the infrastructure of Hizb Allah… Hizb Allah lost its position in Lebanon.  Most moderate Arab countries now are against it.  The population, which supports Hizb Allah, is in retreat.

The very next day the Arab League voted unanimously to condemn Israeli troops inside Lebanon and called for an immediate ceasefire.  Uninamously…

Q: But they [Hizb Allah’s supporters] hated Israel anyway.

Olmert: They hated Israel anyway.  They granted Hizb Allah refuge.  Some hid launching pads for rockets in their houses in order to help Hizb Allah.  But Israel’s response will meanwhile defeat Hizb Allah.

Q: What do you mean?

Olmert: Hizb Allah wants a cessation of hostilities.  We never asked for that.  We do not find it insane that 180 rockets were falling on us daily.  But if we asked for a ceasefire? We would be finished then.  We reacted and said “to hell with you” and came on as strongly as we could.  The threat of Hizb Allah has lost its ability to frighten.

Yet the recent draft resolution which Israel was tolerant of, if not enthusiastic about, called for a ceasefire and yet it was Lebanon (as well as Hizb Allah) which rejected it.

Q: Recently, European criticism of Israel has been very sharp.  How do you explain that?

Olmert: It is a wrong perception.  Because we have a strong army and air force, we do not have to tolerate rockets being fired at us for long.  Our patience has run out.   It is the right of each country in this world to defend itself.

Q: Is Anti-semitism a factor in the criticism [by Europe]?

Olmert: No, it’s a case of myopia and prejudices.  How do they have the right to preach to Israel?  The European countries attacked Kosovo and killed ten thousand civilians.  Ten thousand civilians!  And none of those countries were hit by a single rocket.  I do not say that it was wrong to intervene in Kosovo but I do ask that you not lecture us on how we treat civilians.

This is a staggering mistake concerning what happened in Kosovo.  To begin with, the war was primarily against Serbia and much of the bombing was against targets inside Serbia, not Kosovo.  Secondly, the official estimation is that 1,500 civilians died in the conflict in total, not ten thousand!  Not to mention that the NATO war was against a state (Serbia), not a guerilla/terrorist organization.

Oddly enough there are parallels with the Kosovo War but they’re all the wrong ones.  The NATO war against Serbia was widely condemned by the rest of the world.  It was a pre-emptive war, much of the population became refugees and the “victor” of that war continues to occupy the land (KFOR) to “preserve peace”.  

Furthermore, in an ironic twist, the terrorist organization in THAT war was on the side of the “victors” and now they pretty much run the place.  One of their leaders is now the Prime Minister! Hardly a shining example for Olmert to use to defend his current war.

Here’s more unbelievableness out of Israeli government, from Ha’Aretz, August 7:

A senior General Staff officer told Haaretz that for the first time since the fighting began, Israel plans to attack strategic infrastructure targets and symbols of the Lebanese government.

Other than bombing the Beirut airport to prevent arms transfers to Hezbollah, Israel has hitherto not targeted Lebanon’s infrastructure, insisting that it is only at war with Hezbollah, not with the Lebanese government or people.

However, the officer said, “we are now in a process of renewed escalation. We will continue hitting everything that moves in Hezbollah – but we will also hit strategic civilian infrastructure.”

Clearly, no matter what anyone in Israel (or the White House) says, this is a war to utterly fracture and destroy Lebanon as an independent, sovereign nation.  I don’t even think the Israeli goal is a strong international peacekeeping force at all.

Blowing up infrastructure does nothing to hurt Hizb Allah, only strengthen its resolve and earn it sympathy from other Lebanese and the entire Arab world.

Dropping bombs on residential structures is not only a war crime, it is useless as a military operation to stop Hizb Allah.  Once rockets have been fired from a particular location, do you think Hizb sticks around, waiting for Israel to bomb it?  Do you think any civilians would not notice a missile being fired in their neighborhood and also stick around?

Israel keeps dropping leaflets, warning civilians to flee certain areas (although they are forbidden to drive a vehicle) as some kind of “fair warning”.  But don’t the leaflets also warn Hizb Allah where Israel plans to strike?  Why would the Hizb stick around those areas for Israel to bomb them?  

And what’s up with the raids in Baalbek and Tyre, grabbing a number of completely innocent and unrelated civilians, simply because they have names similar or identical to the leader of Hizb Allah?  How is that winning the war or achieving Israeli objectives?

No, I think this is madness.  I think this is a Prime Minister and a Defense Minister and a number of other top Israelis fucking up, to put it crudely.  They are doing a good job of spinning their tactical losses (including the seemingly indefatigable town of Bint Jbeil) but this is no success for Israel or for Israeli ambitions.  This is no secret mastermind plan to expand the neocon war and topple Iran, get thousands of American troops in Lebanon, etc.

The only “proof” I have that this is a series of deadly follies is the look on Dan Gillerman’s face today when a reporter asked him, “If Israel is achieving its objectives, why does it want a ceasefire?”.  He didn’t have a smooth comeback at all.  In fact, he pursed his lips like he had just eaten a Jaffa lemon.  All this yelling at Europe can’t mask the fact that Israel is, unbelievably, “losing” this war and is desperate to eke out some kind of victory.  

In my mind I see two kids in a schoolyard, pushing and shoving each other until one dares the other to meet him at a specified time after school for a showdown.  And then dozens if not hundreds of kids show up as bystanders, meaning that neither combatant can back down, even if he really, really wants to.  Israel never planned for all of this.  

Israel got caught napping by Hizb Allah, who killed 3 and kidnapped two of its soldiers on the Lebanese border.  And then they got stung, badly, when a 750 pound bomb blew up an Israeli tank that was in hot pursuit.  So they ratcheted up their attacks and Hizb Allah followed suit and now we’re a thousand dead civilians and a million refugees down the road with no end in sight.

In the end, as with all wars, it’s the innocents who suffer the most… meanwhile I hope and pray that somehow, some way, a ceasing of the hostilities can be achieved before another month goes by.  And before every last moderate Muslim learns to hate the United States.

Pax