The Republicans are starting to prepare the narrative for some pretty big losses. In the Washington Post Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza run down the coming carnage.
Republican campaign officials said yesterday that they expect to lose at least seven House seats and as many as 30 in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, as a result of sustained violence in Iraq and the page scandal involving former GOP representative Mark Foley.
I’ll go along with the ‘sustained violence in Iraq’, but the same article goes on to say, “Democrats said internal polls show that the fallout from the Foley scandal is confined to half a dozen races.” A ‘half dozen races’ will not explain a 30-seat net loss of seats. The most important reason that the Republicans are in trouble is captured in this graf.
Unlike in most elections, when both parties defend several seats, Democrats are favored to win every seat they now occupy and are spending money to defend only a few. As a result, Democrats are not as vulnerable to the GOP’s campaign finance advantage in the final weeks as they have been in past campaigns.
We are entirely on offense, which is a total turn about from 2004. Consider this, from Foxes in the Henhouse:
John Kerry conceded the equivalent of twenty-seven states and 227 electoral votes to George Bush. That is 84 percent of the electoral votes Bush needed to win, meaning that he had to get only 43 of the remaining electoral votes in the remaining twenty-three states to become president. What was Kerry thinking?
That’s right, Kerry didn’t even bother to campaign in twenty-seven states. But we are poised to win three seats in Indiana alone. We are looking at winning seats in a lot of red states, including Ohio, Virginia, Texas, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. Maybe it is the 50-State strategy, or maybe it is just a reflection of how badly the Republicans have screwed up the country.
We can’t take anything for granted…especially the voting machinery. But we are on the verge of a big victory in the House. And it can’t come soon enough. And, yes, I expect them to investigate the hell out of this administration and clean up the rot on Capitol Hill.
…and did you mention…Virginia?
Sorry for the silliness, Booman. For those of us in Virginia, we’re glad to get the multiple references. Makes me more confident that the answer is blowin’ in the wind down here south of the Potomac. Finally!
that the repubs have the great GOTV machinery and the dems are behind. I am really tired of that excuse. Technology shouldn’t be a mystery to anybody running. Why are the state organizations letting us down?
…that our democracy still works!
I can’t wait to see the look on their faces when they get subpeonas from John Conyers AND realize that they will actually have to testify under oath.
The Republican’t campaign signs in Washington state don’t mention that they are Republican’ts. I’ve never in my life seen a campaign sign without an affiliation.
And the guy who let the Green River Killer run lose for 20 something years is running a very dirty smear campaign.
And bragging that he almost all alone captured the Green River Killer. He’s a real douche.
Foleygate was a big surprise.
Israel has a surprise in store, later this month of October.
Israel has stated several times, flatly, that for Iran to even possess the means of enriching uranium at all is a “red line” which presents an existential threat to Israel’s existence. And, that it would not be tolerated under any circumstances.
They are going to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in the days between October 21st and November 7, and Bush/Cheney are moving as many Navy and Air Force assets into the Gulf theater as they can, so that they can respond to whatever response Iran has to being bombed by Israel.
It’s a sweet October Surprise. Israel starts it, Iran responds, and Bush gets to put on his white hat and ride to the rescue — not his fault, not his war.
The alternative to springing this surprise is losing Congress wholesale. Can’t have that, so, war it will have to be.
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