David Sanger tells it like it is:
In the cacophony of competing plans about how to deal with Iraq, one reality now appears clear: despite the Democrats’ victory this month in an election viewed as a referendum on the war, the idea of a rapid American troop withdrawal is fast receding as a viable option.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff are signaling that too rapid an American pullout would open the way to all-out civil war. The bipartisan Iraq Study Group has shied away from recommending explicit timelines in favor of a vaguely timed pullback. The report that the panel will deliver to President Bush next week would, at a minimum, leave a force of 70,000 or more troops in the country for a long time to come, to train the Iraqis and to insure against collapse of a desperately weak central government.
Even the Democrats, with an eye toward 2008, have dropped talk of a race for the exits, in favor of a brisk stroll. But that may be the only solace for Mr. Bush as he returns from a messy encounter with Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.
I gotta run out and meet up with a friend that just flew from Dubai (and boy are her arms tired) but I just want to make a few brief remarks here.
Iraq is now a complete clusterfuck. The Shi’a government is ostensibly our ally, but they are really just an engine for settling scores with the Sunnis and expanding the influence of the Shi’a brand of Islam (that they share with Iran and Hezbollah). The Sunnis are indeed behaving badly, both toward U.S. troops and the Iraqi government, but they are in a desperate fight for survival. Our main allies in the region are Sunnis (Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt). And they do not see the Sunnis in Iraq as al-Qaeda, or as mere insurgents. They see them as people that are being slaughtered and that may be totally wiped out if the U.S. pulls out.
They want us to stay even though the Sunnis we would be staying to protect are about 90% united on their desire for us to leave. And they are killing our troops to make their point.
If we leave our allies will begin fighting the Iraq government using our equipment and training.
Obviously, it is a lot more complicated (see Kurds), but that only makes the situation worse. The situation is SO bad, and so absurd, that any foreign policy thinker that spends two seconds thinking about it just begins to tremble at the magnitude of the problem. And as bad as things are right now, at least the problem is contained within Iraq. Therefore, no one is willing to advocate leaving.
The problem is that the American public will not wait for long. Any politician that runs on pulling out is going to be successful, and politicians that call for staying the course will be punished. You can blame the American people for this if you want, but it won’t change a damn thing. We do not have the resolve to stay in Iraq for no greater strategy than forestalling something worse.
So…
We might as well get out sooner rather than later because we are getting out regardless. And everyday we stay it costs a lot of money and people get hurt and killed.
You go to war with the public you have, not the public you might wish you have. And it is simply unrealistic to think that the American public is going to suddenly do an about face and support a draft or more troops or a greater commitment.
Just take a deep breath, say a little prayer, and take the plunge. Make the decision to get out of Iraq. Then convene a regional conference. No one wants all these people to die and we might be able to cobble together some kind of plan to keep things from spiraling totally out of control. But that is all we can do. We are going to have to take our lumps. There is no point in living in denial about it. Please. Start acting like grown-ups.
I don’t think the problem is the American public, except that we let the invasion happen in the first place. The problem is that this was a doomed adventure from the very first day because it was based on insane ideology and wishful thinking instead of reality. The public could vote 99 percent to “stay the course” at all costs, and there would still be no “victory”. It’s not about “will”, it’s not about “resolve”, it’s about the stillborn offspring of idiots, liars, profiteers, and cowards. Let’s put the blame where it belongs — on Bush and the neocons who led us into a far deadlier trap than anything al qaida or any other terrorists could have hoped to accomplish.
In their book Out of Iraq,George McGovern and William R. Polk offer the most reasonable plan for salvaging what remains of Iraq as a viable state. It involves what amount to reparations for an unjust act on the part of America and its allies. The October Harper’s had a good long summary, and McGovern appeared with Dennis Kucinich on Democracy Now, which was marred by giving too much time to some ass from American Enterprise. I don’t understand why their proposal has gotten so little attention even among the liberal blogs. Maybe the idea of the US actually admitting to being wrong and bad and paying for their folly is too much for even lefty patriots to swallow.
In any case, what is most discouraging to me now is that there is so little discussion of the most humane, least harmful way to end Bush’s disaster. There is nothing else left to talk about. There will be no victory, no excuses, no saving face. There will only be the opportunity to start the painful healing there and here. Whatever we do, we will face a legacy of shame that will remain with us for generations to come. We can make the best of it by getting out starting now and, at long last, acting as best we can in the interest of the victims we pretended to want to save in the first place.
Thanks for that link to the Harpers article. I had just read this a few days ago and was also wondering why no one seems to be talking about this plan. It’s extremely well thought out and a true comprehensive plan-a real plan and more importantly a plan that could be done it seems to me. Of course it would have to be carried out by someone who has that ‘vision’ thingy that bush and company are utterly devoid of.
“In the cacophony of competing plans about how to deal with Iraq, one reality now appears clear: despite the Democrats’ victory this month in an election viewed as a referendum on the war, the idea of a rapid American troop withdrawal is fast receding as a viable option.”
I knew this would happen. It was obvious to anyone who actually read what individual Democrat candidates were saying. Instead, most anti war Democrats hopefully and simplistically accepted whatever the ambiguous Party machine prattled on about. Smoke and mirrors kids. You’ve been hustled with a great game of smoke and mirrors that was every bit as insincere, hypocritical and successful as the Christian bullshit that Bush fed his evangelicals in 2000 and 2004.
Anti war Democrats have been conned. Bent over the barrel and shamelessly butt fucked by the Democratic Party. All your left with is a sticky mess running down you leg and an empty gaping burning sore hole where your heart used to be. Get used to it folks I have had that feeling about the Democrats since I realized how right wing their drug war support has ALWAYS BEEN. You’ve been raped and now the rapists EXPECT you to stand up and say thank you. Why do you think I call them the two dominance parties?
THERE ARE NO SOLUTIONS TO THE IRAQ WAR, TERRORISM, CRIME AND DISEASE THAT CAN COME FROM THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS. NONE!
All that Democrats and Republicans care about is the authoritarian status quo. they will lie, cheat and promise you anything. they will deliver NOTHING.
The only solution to America’s problems is for rational humane Americans to abandon the Democrats and Republicans. Hell, abandon the party system all together. Parties are all about maintaining the status quo.
George Washington: “Let me now take a more comprehensive view, & warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the Spirit of Party, generally.”
America today is what George Washington tried to warn us about as he was retiring from being the first president of the United States of America. He was right then. He is more right today.
I believe we all thought it was pretty much a clusterfuck quite a while ago; what the hell can we call it now, tho?
Only one thing to do- get the bull the hell out. Was true, is true.
There are a few things we could do though-
Get rid of Maliki- he is in there because of his right wing economic policy, we chose the most pro-Iranian faction of the Shi’ite bloc for leadership because they were also the most willing to sell off state owned enterprises. Ol’ Jaafari of Dawa may be a European style social democrat, but he isn’t as pro-Iranian. And Sadr just plain hates the Iranians.
If we get out now, the prognosis isn’t that bad (unless you are a Kurd and sadly to say, Kurds getting screwed has never seemed to create much of a problem for anyone aside from the Kurds.)
Arab-Persian nationalism should never be underestimated, not should the contempt in which Najaf Shi’i holds the Khomeinist heretics in Tehran.
Moreover, when not faced with the might of U.S. forces, the Sunnis in Iraq can take care of themselves. As much as the Saudis (and to a much lesser extent the Jordanians) would like influence in Iraq through support for Sunni forces- the Iraqi Sunnis will likely just take the money and run. They are the professional class, both technocrats and millitary professionals. Eventually one of the Shi’ite blocs will need them and there will be an accommodation.
My (rose colored) crystal ball scenario if we get the fuck out now:
Dawa and the Sadrists reach and accommodation with each other for a leftist secular government that devolves personal (i.e. family and personal status (e.g. hijab)) law to local and sectarian authorities. Those groups smear the turf with Maliki and SCIRII by working with Baathists and non-salafist Sunni fundamentalists. The Sunnis get theirs by being handed Mosul with a little help from the Turks. The Kurds get screwed. Peace love and understanding reigns and shit is back to normal in three or four years when a Baathist general takes over and has all the hot heads shot. Meanwhile Chimpy will vacation in Kennebunkport and get paid seven figure speaker fees by his pals in the Gulf- just like daddy.
Life sucks, don’t it.
A knowledgeable grownup I know had this to say about the current situation in Iraq: “What we really need is a miracle.” ‘Bout sums it up.
I think we may have to wait for the new faces to take over Congress in the hope of investigative committees. I don’t believe we’ll be leaving Iraq in my lifetime. They need to investigate how much went into these bases that we built in Iraq, and why? My understanding is billions! I think if we get some honest answers the American people may have a change of heart and want the impeachment process. Both Cheney and Bush need to go, and if they did that, they might want an army of security for Pelosi.
Let’s face the reality of it – the Iraq War was involved with domestic US politics from the day it started and will be involved with domestic US politics until long after the last American soldier, trooper or marine has exited.
The war being fought in Washington now is the war over the question of which party “lost” Iraq. That’s it. Period. And, the reason this war is being fought so bitterly is because the answer to that question will determine whether the Republican Party has any future. They’ve managed to dominate the executive branch of government for the last seventy years because of the way they spun who “lost” China and then who “lost” Vietnam. Strip away their ability to tar the Democrats with responsibility for “losing” Iraq and possibly the whole Middle East and the Republican Party has no winning platform on which to run.
The Republican Party now knows that the American electorate thinks their leadership in execrable and their policies insane. The elephants are being driven crazy by the fear that they will be completely repudiated in the next two or three election cycles and thrown in the dumpster as a party and philosophy. They will do anything to make sure they can claim the Democrats “lost” Iraq becasue they are desperate. The issue therefore becomes, how do the Democrats and other liberal forces clamp this rotting albatross of Iraq firmly around the Republicans’ gorge. This is the only issue which matters for the next two years.