Chris Bowers is kind of freaking out because he thinks, possibly correctly, that Super Tuesday will result in a basic tie in pledged delegates between Clinton and Obama. The problem with that is that it means one of the candidates would have to win roughly 75% of the remaining pledged delegates to avoid a brokered convention where the Super Delegates will decide the winner of the nomination. The only way to avoid such a spectacle is if one of the candidates drops out.
Let me address a few points:
1. There are roughly 800 Superdelegates that will represent roughly 20% of the delegates voting at the convention. Superdelegates are elected officeholders and party officials that can vote for whomever they want. Currently, 184 are pledged to Clinton and 95 are pledged to Obama. In other words, over 500 Superdelegates have made no official commitment to either candidate. So, can we please stop saying that Hillary Clinton has some big advantage in Superdelegates? She doesn’t.
2. It’s not the end of democracy if the Superdelegates determine the nominee. Maybe some citizens will be disillusioned to learn that the Democratic Party is, you know, a party with officers and stuff. Parties do not determine their victors based on the popular vote anymore than the Electoral College does. Rather than calling this the end of democracy, we might just call it a lesson on civics.
3. This might all be a little less confusing if the Democratic Party didn’t do strange things like letting non-party members vote in their primaries. If people understood that they are members of a party voting for their party representatives (delegates) rather than independent citizens voting for a candidate, maybe people would take more interest in the nature and nurturing of the party.
4. Whoever has the momentum at the end of nominating process will win over the majority of those 500 undecided Superdelegates and the process will work itself out. But, if not…
5. Even a disputed brokered convention won’t be the end of the world. Yes, McCain will have six months to run unopposed, but he won’t have anyone to run against. He also won’t be able to make any news and no one will care what he has to say. And, secondly, as long as Obama wins, which he almost certainly will if he makes it all the way to the convention, the party will heal up quickly. Only an brokered convention that results in Clinton winning will crush enough hopes to make Hubert Humphrey blush. The likelihood of that happening, while it cannot be totally dismissed, is remote. But there could be riots!!
Oh my!
I kinda think Obama is going to win Missouri, by a big Margin. And no need to freaking out.
Riots? har. The Democrats who remember how to riot are too old to risk shattering their bones. And Obama’s legions of adoring youths? Nah. They want to magically transcend the past; they don’t wanna fight for the future. “Yes, We Can” is an example of wishful thinking.
That’s like when the narrative coming out of YearlyKos was all the “young people” and I’m reading that on my blog sitting with people older than my mom. Obama supporters aren’t just the 18 – 24 crowd. Most of the active Obama supporters I know are over 50. I’m 35 and at the Obama rally at a college campus, I still felt like I was on the younger end of the spectrum. I guess a false narrative is much better than dealing with reality.
I guess it’s better to ignore my first sentence than it is to deal with the reality that no one in this country has been motivated enough to riot for anything in over 30 years. Good work on setting up that strawman and knocking him down tho.
Perhaps you don’t know what “setting up strawmen” means. In any case, it makes no sense.
I ignored the first part of your statement because it’s embarrassingly stupid and wrong. Those people in power weren’t the ones rioting in the streets. Most of those people in power just got to where they are on the backs of people who did the hard work.
But you’ve decided to do that lame internet trick where you say one thing, pretend to repeat it, but alter it slightly then tell someone that stale and trite sentence “Good work on setting up that strawman and knocking him down tho.”.
Breath of fresh air this comment. Don’t see that 200 times a month on the internet.
Excuse me. It’s “stupid and wrong” to point out that those of us who have actually been in riots are now too old to do so. “Those people in power weren’t the ones rioting in the streets” WTF? Who are you talking about? I wasn’t in power when I demonstrated in the streets, got tear-gassed, had dogs snarling at me and policemen snapping billy clubs on any body part they could reach. And I’m sure not in power now. What ARE you talking about?
Your strawman was pretending that I’d said Obama’s base was entirely young so I think I used the term quite acurately because I didn’t say that at all. MY opinion is: Democrats — old and young — aren’t inclined to riot about ANYTHING these days. What pisses you off about that? That it’s true?
You see, you never directly responded to what I said. Instead you threw out anecdotal evidence that Obama’s support is not entirely youthful. How does that alter the likelihood that anyone would riot on his behalf?
Now you’ve gone around the bend about… what? I can’t figure out what you’re saying at all. Who the hell are “those people”?
Dead Kennedys: Riot
Sonic Youth: Teenage Riot
This riot’s quiet…
in yer dreams…
lTMF’sA
Thank you BooMan.
Much ado about nothing.
Besides I’m sure that the Pennsylvania, and its 188 delegates, will save the day on April 22.
Athough I have to agree with Markos’ thoughts today on that possibility:
lol!
I don’t know about Duncan because he is studiously aloof, but a lot of people might think I’ve already had a lot to say.
Too much, as far as I’m concerned.
see? there you go.
Or maybe he’s the strong silent type …
fyi – via gobacktotexas over at dKos, Obama won the first Super Tuesday polling battle. He got 75% of the votes from Jakarta in the Democrats Abroad primary.
That Obama carried Indonesia. Really shocked, I am. ;P
Hey – He’s got the Hussein name! Didn’t you know that was the end of the world.
thanks BooMan
I don’t get the sky is falling yelping. Whay not give all the states a chance to participate in a primary and make the candidates campaign around the country. This may be the last time they get to some places.
Superdelegates are allowed to change their mind as well.