Everyone is focusing on the March 4th contests in Ohio and Texas, but there are contests in Rhode Island and Vermont that day as well. Vermont is probably a safe bet to go to Obama, but polling has shown Hillary Clinton ahead in Rhode Island. Yet, I don’t know if the pollsters are accounting for this:
In the last year, more than 43,000 new voters registered in Rhode Island, including about 21,000 who signed up in the four months before the Feb. 2 deadline, according to a Providence Journal analysis. That’s compared to about 12,400 new voters who registered in the four months before the 2004 state presidential primary cycle.
About 6,800 of the voters who registered in the last four months are Democrats, 1,900 are Republicans and 12,000 are independents, who can vote in either party’s primary.
The new voters this year are also young voters. About 20,000 are between the ages of 18 and 29, the Journal reported.
Twenty-one thousand new voters registered in the last four months, and 20,000 young voters over the last year. Just looking at the Virginia Exit Polls, Obama carried the 17-29 vote by a 52% spread (76%-24%).
And look at the differential registration by party. Democrats are signing up at a better than three-to-one ratio over Republicans. We’re right on the cusp of a realigning election…we just need a transformative candidate that fits with the national mood and we’re there. The latest Gallup Poll, shows “only 41% of adults likely to vote this November say they would support the Republican candidate running in their congressional district. Fifty-five percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.” That is landslide territory, but it won’t turn out that way if the Democratic nominee has negative approval ratings all over the country.
wow, those are some amazing numbers. Amazing.
I’m glad my primary is over. Not just because Obama won it. But because, as I talk to women in real life who voted for Hillary simply because she is a woman, it is getting harder and harder for me to be nice to them. For me, it’s like talking to the people who voted for Bush in 2004. I just want to shake them. The right choice seemed so obvious and yet in a democracy everyone has the right to make a bad choice. Single issue voters are allowed. Heck, I’m going to be a single issue voter in November.
So I’m happy that my election is over and he won it, because then I can just smile politely and walk away instead of losing friends over it and/or creating a disturbance in a public place.
welcome to my world.
Nope. You haven’t voted yet. So in your world you still have to live with the fact that you might be able to change their minds before they vote.
My sympathies. 😉
It is interesting that it is the DLC, Hillary’s base, that by trending right, believes it can induce more independents and Republicans to vote for the Democratic candidate. And to do so by giving up traditional Democratic values, even the populism of candidates like Edwards.
Yet, it is Obama, the candidate of the left wing, rated the most liberal senator in the Senate, who is enticing such voters to pull the Democratic lever, not Hillary. The idea of transforming the Democratic party into a Reaganesque venture is apparently not working, not just among Democrats, but among a majority of independent and a minority of Republican voters who now see a better future for America if they cross the line.
It’s not terribly surprising. Look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers. The public really likes Obama (~60% favorable), while it’s split on Clinton. People feel like they’re actually voting for something with Obama.
The Clinstones are kidding themselves if they think running to the right, and behaving in an authoritarian manner on superdelegates, will win them this primary. And pissing on small- and medium-sized states doesn’t help.
Obama’s won the electability argument, at this point. He’s killing McCain in New Hampshire and Nevada, and he’s got a solid lead in Colorado. Why are we still having this debate in the Democratic Party? By every measure, he’s the superior candidate.