Can we all agree that most people that go out to vote in November will be primarily interested in casting their vote for president, and not for Senate or the House? If you are Jeanne Shaheen, for example, and you are running against John Sununu for one of the New Hampshire senate seats, you can do almost as well by convincing people to get out and vote for Obama or Clinton, as getting them out to vote for you, right?
Presidential election years are different than midterm election years. When we think about blue senators in red states (e.g., Mary Landrieu or Tim Johnson) or red senators in blue states (e.g. Gordon Smith or Norm Coleman) it is much easier for a challenger to beat them in a presidential year than in a midterm year. The reason is greater turnout, and that favors the candidate of the same party as the presidential candidate that carries the state. It is just difficult to get voters to vote for one party for president and another party downticket.
If you’ve been paying attention, you know that there are 35 senate seats up for reelection this year (33 regularly scheduled and 2 special elections). Twenty-three of those seats are held by Republicans and 12 are held by Democrats. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at the seats.
- Senate seats that voted for Gore then Bush or Bush then Kerry (with incumbent)
Iowa- Tom Harkin-D
New Hampshire- John Sununu-R
New Mexico- Pete Domenici-R (retiring)
Senate Seats that voted for Bush twice
Alaska- Ted Stevens-R
Idaho- Larry Craig-R (retiring)
Montana- Max Baucus-R
Wyoming- Mike Enzi-R
Wyoming (special election)- John Barrasso-R
Colorado- Wayne Allard-R (retiring)
South Dakota- Tim Johnson-D
Nebraska- Chuck Hagel-R (retiring)
Kansas- Pat Roberts-R
Oklahoma- James Inhofe-R
Texas- John Cornyn-R
Arkansas- Mark Pryor-D
Louisiana- Mary Landrieu-D
Mississippi- Thad Cochran-R
Mississippi (special election)- Roger Wicker-R
Alabama- Jeff Sessions-R
Georgia- Saxby Chambliss-R
South Carolina- Lindsey Graham-R
North Carolina- Elizabeth Dole-R
Virginia- John Warner-R (retiring)
West Virginia- Jay Rockefeller-D
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell-R
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander-R
Senate seats that voted for Gore and Kerry
Delaware- Joe Biden-D
Illinois- Dick Durbin-D
Maine- Susan Collins- R
Massuchusetts- John Kerry-D
Michigan- Carl Levin-D
Minnesota- Norm Coleman-R
New Jersey- Frank Lautenberg-D
Oregon- Gordon Smith-R
Rhode Island- Jack Reed-D
To examine the differential coattails of Obama versus Clinton, let’s look at two things. First, let’s look at Charlie Cook’s Senate Rankings (.pdf) and then let’s combine that with the SurveyUSA polls for McCain matchups against Obama and Clinton.
- SAFE DEMOCRATIC (coattails not needed)
Pryor (AR) Obama -20, Clinton +11
Biden (DE) Obama +9, Clinton +5
Harkin (IA) Obama +9, Clinton -5
Durbin (IL) Obama +29, Clinton +11
Kerry (MA) Obama +7, Clinton +18
Levin (MI) Obama +1, Clinton 0
Baucus (MT) Obama -8, Clinton -20
Lautenberg (NJ) Obama 0, Clinton +5
Reed (RI) Obama +15, Clinton +17
Rockefeller (WV) Obama -18, Clinton +5
While none of these candidates should require any coattails to help them get reelected, it is clear that Obama would help Harkin, Durbin, and Baucus, while hurting Pryor and Rockefeller. Clinton would help Pryor, Rockefeller, and Kerry, while hurting Harkin and Baucus. In this category, Harkin and Baucus are the most vulnerable.
Advantage: Obama
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Johnson (SD) Obama -4, Clinton -12
VA (J. Warner) Obama 0, Clinton -10
In this category, Obama does less damage to Johnson than Clinton would. Obama does no damage to Mark Warner, while Clinton creates a drag.
Advantage: Obama
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Landrieu (LA) Obama -15, Clinton -10
In this category, Clinton does less damage to Landrieu than Obama would.
Advantage: Clinton
TOSS-UP
Stevens (AK) Obama -5, Clinton -22
CO (Allard) Obama +9, Clinton -6
Sununu (NH) Obama +2, Clinton -8
NM (Domenici) Obama +7, Clinton 0
In this most important category, Obama gets a clean sweep. Obama is winning in Colorado and New Hampshire, while Clinton is losing. Obama is winning in New Mexico, while Clinton is tied. And Obama is much less of a drag on Mayor Mark Begich’s bid to oust Ted Stevens than Clinton would be.
Advantage: Obama
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Collins (ME) Obama +14, Clinton +6
Coleman (MN) Obama +7, Clinton +4
In this category, Obama supplies better coattails in both races.
Advantage: Obama
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
NE (Hagel) Obama -3, Clinton -27
Smith (OR)- Obama +8, Clinton -5
Wicker (MS-B)- Obama -13, Clinton -9
In this category, Obama makes Nebraska competitive (even winning one electoral vote out of the state) while Clinton serves as a severe drag on the ticket. Obama is winning Oregon, while Clinton, disturbingly, is not. In Mississippi, it looks like Clinton causes modestly less damage than Obama, but, even here, any Democrat hoping to win statewide in Mississippi must get dramatic black turnout.
Advantage: Obama
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sessions (AL) Obama -14, Clinton -10
Chambliss (GA) Obama -13, Clinton -21
ID (Craig) Obama -13, Clinton -36
Roberts (KS) Obama -9, Clinton -9
McConnell (KY) Obama -21, Clinton -9
Cochran (MS A) Obama -13, Clinton -9
Dole (NC) Obama -2, Clinton -8
Inhofe (OK) Obama -23, Clinton -8
Graham (SC) Obama -3, Clinton -6
Alexander (TN) Obama -16, Clinton 0
Cornyn (TX) Obama -1, Clinton -7
Enzi (WY-A) Obama -19, Clinton -33
Barrasso (WY-B) Obama -19, Clinton -33
This is the most interesting category because this is where there is the most distinction between the candidates. A pattern emerges in the border states. Obama does horribly in Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, (and West Virginia). Clinton does horribly in Idaho, Wyoming (and Nebraska, Colorado, Montana, and Alaska). Among the 13 ‘Safe Republican’ seats, Obama does better in 7, worse in 5, and they are tied in Kansas.
Advantage: Obama
In the 35 senate races, Obama is more helpful in 22, Clinton in 12, and they are tied in one. But if we eliminate the 13 ‘Safe Republican’ and 10 ‘Safe Democratic’ seats, the advantage is even starker. In that case Obama leads in 10 and Clinton helps in two (Landrieu and Wicker).
Considering the importance of maximizing the Democratic majority in the Senate, the coattails of Obama are an important consideration.
Gov. Ed Rendell, PA: Clinton promoter – how much damage can he do? I saw him on CNN, don’t think I would buy a stick of bubble gum from this guy.
Clinton is ahead by 15 points in PA. I’m hopeful, but troubled that Obama has gone silent, like a flat tire. He can’t afford to be Kerry who took a rest at the most crucial time.
He can do a lot of damage. He’s very popular, especially in the Philly area. It also hurts Obama that he endorsed Fattah in the mayoral race over the winner, Michael Nutter. I supported Nutter, as did most of the progressive community, and Nutter rewarded Obama’s snub with an endorsement of Clinton.
Actually, Nutter is probably not happy at all with his decision, as Philly is 45% black and they won’t be too keen on their mayor getting on the wrong side of history here. But Nutter and Rendell are very valuable allies to have in this race.
that’s depressing. Very.
Most people don’t vote based on such low-level endorsements. Ted Kennedy is a party of history thing. Governor Rendell? Not so much.
Btw – I know a few people in PA who are not crazy about Rendell. They are Democrats.
Please fax this info to all remaining undeclared superdelegates!
Separately, bloggers in PA – PLEASE. We need your help on the ground. Most people in applachia don’t know Obama, and won’t know about him until we call them on the phone or knock on their doors.
Go to pennsylvania.barackobama.com and join a neighborhood team. We have six weeks lead time. That’s more than we’ve had in any other big state. Let’s show that we have the organization to win the big ones when we have enough time.
Thanks!!
Thanks for the link. I have signed up. I live in PA, in the VERY RIGHT wing areas…. it should be fascinating here over the next 7 weeks.
Fantastic, Benjamink! Please, give us reports from PA!
I called a few people in Wyoming at lunch today. Not sure what part of the state I was calling, but the few I reached were NOT happy to hear from me, and both appeared to have been called before.
I don’t think we can take any state for granted – caucus or not.
Awesome. I had been kind of assuming this, but good to see it put on paper (or electrons as it were).
Thanks.
Samantha Powers resigned. Am sending more $ to Obama with note that the sooner we can get him in the WH, the sooner Samantha Powers can return with her great talent, skill & compassion.
Contrary to Hillary’s statement earlier in the week that she was a human being, I would point out that her actions in rejecting Powers’ apology demonstrated a monstrous lack of humanity. Not the actions of a fence-mending leader.
Samantha spoke the truth.
Hillary is a monster. She won’t even accept an apology. It’s all about Hillary.
Yet again she has the gall to float a Clinton-Obama ticket. In Bill’s wet dreams.
Newsflash to Hillary: go find a sand dune, we won’t be distracted.