I guess tonight is a night for annoying near victories. In Mississippi, we are headed for a run-off in the special election for MS-01. The Democrat won, but he didn’t quite get 50% of the vote. He fell about 400 votes short. There will be a run-off election on May 13th. Still, this is a totally shocking result. Bush carried the district in 2004 with 62% and Roger Wicker won this seat in 2006 with 66% of the vote.
Meanwhile, the result in Pennsylvania seems to be a case of white people lying to pollsters. Obama is currently carrying Philadelphia Co. by a margin of 130,000 votes. That should have been plenty to make the race a deadheat or even win. But he’s losing the state by 190,000 votes. The reason? He got beaten by much larger than expected numbers in the rural areas and the suburbs barely went for him despite telling pollsters they preferred him 62-38.
The final numbers will probably narrow a bit, but not much. It looks like a 8-10 point victory.
The Clintons aren’t going to be real happy to wake up to this in the morning. It’s especially damaging, given that the Times gave its endorsement to HRC.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print&
oref=slogin&oref=slogin
That editorial is lethal.
Check out the counties in Central Pennsylvania on the CNN map page. Dauphin and Lancaster went for Obama; my own Cumberland, all rural and suburbs, where Obama was initially expected to get hardly any votes, went Clinton 53, Obama 47.
Really interesting but then again I did run out of Obama buttons and stickers fast.
Well, that didn’t go exactly as planned. I’m a bit disappointing about the results in Bucks County; it appears that Patrick Murphy’s endorsement didn’t prevent a shellacking in that district.
Nevertheless, when all is said and done, the maximum number of delegates Clinton can gain out of tonight is 16. The maximum delegate spread will be 87-71; it could narrow to 85-73 depending on the outcome in the suburbs.
In the end, that’s the main takeaway – and it’s not enough to eat significantly into Obama’s pledged delegate lead.
Why do the cable news programs even put the delegate count on their screen if none of their blowhards ever refer to them? They will repeat that HRC wins by double digits but do not say how many delegates she picks up.
Buchanan just called Obama Dukakis and how he had the media on his side. Huh? I am done with these shows again.
The suburban vote is especially discouraging. It looks like Obama couldn’t close the deal in a place where he has to close to win the General. I think this thing is going to the Convention Floor where the fight over MI and FL delegates will split the party. 1924 all over again. Gore may still end up being ur only hope for November.
This is clearly a very hard fought race and neither candidate has been able to put it away. Since both candidates will get to the convention without the requisite number of delegates to secure the nomination from just pledged delegates it will come down to the super-delegates and of course the MI & FL brouhaha.
So I don’t see how either candidate is going to call it quits until the first ballot at the convention even if all the supers endorse prior to that. They will always have the argument that the delegates have not yet voted so they can always change their mind until the actual ballot at the convention.
This race has everything to do with Democratic primary voters who are reasonably balanced between the two candidates. Barack continues to win the African-American, affluent whites and youth while Hillary continues to win the blue collar and Latino vote. And in state after state even as the primary is coming to a close these segments are not moving to the other candidate. Why is that?
Clearly Democratic primary voters don’t believe this race is over and are still voting their choice. Many are not convinced yet that Barack is the winner and moving to the winning team and vice versa.
The bottom line is that the supers have an unenviable task of breaking the deadlock of the Democratic primary voters. Someone is not going to be happy. Will they go home with their marbles? Will they give McCain the winning margin? I don’t think we’ll really know until the general election campaign begins in earnest.
In the mean time this campaign will move towards winning the remaining super-delegates and holding their vote until that first ballot at the convention. It will be interesting how each candidates pitch and argument with the supers and party leadership will go. Its going to get nasty it seems. We already see Clinton surrogates like Lanny Davis calling for Dean’s resignation. How will Obama play it? How will the MSM spin it? And how will the voters perceive it?
Wait, so losing to Clinton in PA means he’ll lose to McCain there? Are you damaged?
For the superdelegates, the math is very simple: if they pick Obama, he wins in November. If they pick Clinton, she loses, and loses big. Obama’s as damaged as he’s ever going to get. Clinton’s thrown the kitchen sink at him, and he still beats McCain by unassailable margins. Obama hasn’t once gone negative on Clinton. The instant she becomes the nominee, the Republican hate machine destroys her.
well fuck!
not the win obama needed, nor the blow out that hrc needed…but the spin is on big time; without acknowledging that the math doesn’t work unless the SD’s, and other back room dealers throw it to her.
should that happen, l’ll have to change my sig, because the revolution will
notbe televised…live from denver.chicago ’68 will look like a picnic in the park if that happens.
Dude, my election predictions are so much more awesome than yours. That and only shit teams win the Superbowl. That said, stop getting my hopes up bastard! A feeble mind like mine can only take so much disappointment.
On to Guam! Guam will prove decisive.
Do you suppose Rush and his listeners had anything to do with this?
Well, I’m done with TV for tonight, gonna practice the banjo for a while, surf around a little and go to bed at an almost reasonable time.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Stacie B. Miller
Director of Communications
Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law (202) 662-8600
(202) 445-6101 (cell)
Election Protection Coalition Fields Over 1,000 Calls
Reporting Scattered Problems Throughout Pennsylvania
PHILADELPHIA – April 22, 2008 (10:30 p.m. Update) – As polls closed across Pennsylvania this evening, the Election Protection Coalition reported receiving over 1,000 calls to the Voter Protection Hotline throughout the day. The Coalition entered more reports into its election reporting database than in any previous state primary, including primaries earlier this year in California, New York and other populous states.
Nationally renowned Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law together with an extensive coalition of partners throughout Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia-based Committee of Seventy, responded to voting problems throughout the state through a comprehensive voter protection program. Nearly 1,000 nonpartisan citizen and legal volunteers monitored polling places throughout Pennsylvania. Approximately 800 volunteers worked in Philadelphia. Voters reported issues by way of the coalition hotline (1-866-OUR-VOTE) and through hundreds of field volunteers throughout the state.
“Our coalition worked since the polls opened this morning to ensure the integrity of the vote in Pennsylvania, and to be sure the process is conducted fairly,” said John E. McKeever, Esquire, a partner at law firm DLA Piper, who serves on the Boards of Directors of both the Lawyers’ Committee and the Committee of Seventy. “Pooling our respective resources and strengths for this crucial primary helped to ensure that all eligible citizens have an equal opportunity to exercise the most fundamental of all rights – the right to vote.”
Jonah Goldman, director of the National Campaign for Fair Elections of the Lawyers’ Committee’s Voting Rights Project said, “In this historic primary season, voters across the country have turned out in droves to exercise their fundamental right to vote. Today Pennsylvanians followed suit. Unfortunately, the heartening story of record turnout is tempered by the real problems voters face as they try to cast a ballot. Poorly trained poll workers, problems with voting machines and inaccurate voter registration rolls caused countless eligible voters to be needlessly refused the right to vote.”
The high turnout exposed many of the fundamental problems that plague the election administration system throughout the state, together with allegations of voter intimidation and disenfranchisement merit further investigation. One of the most troubling issues today was a barrage of reports from voters who have been registered as Democrats for years, but were listed as unaffiliated and so had to vote provisionally. When this problem surfaced earlier in the day, the Coalition took action by alerting the county Boards of Election to the issue and releasing a statement to the media advising voters who encounter this problem to vote provisionally. It is unclear at this time how widespread this problem was.
The most frequently reported problems throughout the day included general polling place issues such as poll workers giving incorrect information, rule violations and poor administration regarding polling locations (250+ calls); registration issues (200); equipment malfunction at the polls (150) and voter intimidation (80+). Some sample reports include:
* At one location, the head poll worker asked for a voter’s registration card, and yelled out to everyone else the voter’s name, that the voter was a Democrat, the voter’s address and that the machine was not set up for a Democrat. The voter felt very disrespected and that this was an invasion of her privacy; she does not want to go back to vote again because of this worker’s behavior.
* One man was told that he could not vote at his polling place because he was a Republican.
* In Delaware County, one voter reported that the voting machines at her precinct were set for Republicans only. She told the poll worker that she was a Democrat and the worker replied, “Not today.” The voter was not able to cast a vote, but The League of Women Voters provided her with the phone number of the Delaware County Board of Elections to report and resolve the issue.
* A voter reported that, at one location, building materials were being thrown off the roof of the polling place to prevent voters from entering.
* One caller reported a polling location with only three voting machines and no printers working. Voters were leaving without being offered emergency ballots.
* A voter took her child with her to vote, but the poll worker wouldn’t let the child into the voting area with her. When the child’s mother asked why, the poll worker claimed that it was because her child “can read.”
According to the Commonwealth’s Department of State, there are 8,320,083 registered voters in Pennsylvania. In Philadelphia, which has just over one million voters, the City Commissioners’ Office reports that nearly 114,000 individuals registered to vote between October 27, 2007 and March 24, 2008, the last date to register before the primary. The rise in the City’s voter registrations is attributed to the intensity of the national Democratic primary and several local contests. Seventy has already announced plans for unprecedented oversight of high-profile and contentious primary races within the City’s First Senatorial District and the 179th and 184th House Districts.
The Election Protection coalition is the nation’s largest nonpartisan voter protection. Pennsylvania partners include The Lawyer’s Committee for Civil Rights Under Law; the Committee of Seventy; Common Cause; People for the American Way Foundation; Avencia; Congresso de Latino Unidos; Dechert LLP; DLA Piper; Drexel University; Greater Philadelphia Cares; KPMG International; League of Women Voters of Philadelphia; Morgan, Lewis & Bocklus; Philadelphia AFL-CIO; Special People in N.E.; Temple University; University of Pennsylvania Law School; The Daily News and White & Williams LLP.
The Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law (LCCRUL), a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, was formed in 1963 at the request of President John F. Kennedy to involve the private bar in providing legal services to address racial discrimination. The principal mission of the Lawyers’ Committee is to secure, through the rule of law, equal justice under law, particularly in the areas of housing, community development, employment, voting, education and environmental justice. For more information about the LCCRUL, visit http://www.lawyerscommittee.org.
was the campaigns decision to announce defeat twp days before the election. Many people will not vote for someone they think will lose. That was the most bone headed move I have ever seen by a candidate or a campaign. “Please vote for me even though I am going to lose.” The campaign consultant who came up with that idea should be looking for a new job. We could have won this and put it away but instead decided to give up before election day. I am so disappointed.