Do you have any predictions? Here are some for you to work with:
North Carolina
PsiFighter37 (Obama 58% Clinton 42%, Delegates: Obama 63, Clinton 52)
Poblano (Obama 59% Clinton 41%, Delegates: Obama 66, Clinton 49)
Elliot (Obama 59% Clinton 40%, Delegates: Obama 65, Clinton 50)
Indiana
PsiFighter37 (Clinton 53% Obama 47%, Delegates: Clinton 38, Obama 34)
Poblano (Clinton 51% Obama 49%, Delegates: Clinton 36, Obama 36)
Elliot (Clinton 51% Obama 49%, Delegates: Clinton 36, Obama 36)
after all is said and done?
I predict President McCain, quite possibly by a landslide.
That’s what I think. It’s a gut feeling, but I predict that: Clinton will not drop out; I think she’s going to try to fight it out on the convention floor; and that when all is said and done, the Democratic candidate (and the Party) will look about as appealing as a Ford Pinto, exploding edition.
Sorry to be pessimistic, but that’s where I am today.
And actually, I almost would prefer a president mccain. Not enough to vote for him of course.
For whatever reason, it has been determined that Bushes shall never be held accountable for anything. I don’t know what powers-that-be came up with this concept, but since Bush Senior’s administration, democrats and republicans have been happy to play along. Somalia got dumped on Clinton, all the Iran-Contr people were pardoned, Clinton cleaned up Bush’s recession, and now Georgie wants to dump Iraq on whoever the next democrat is.
Maybe I’m cuckoo-bananas, but I get the distinct impression that an all-out effort to prop up what’s left of the economy until GWB leaves is underway, so he won’t have to assume full blame for the impending disaster: better to dump that one, like everything else, on the Dumbocrats.
McCain may have media friends, but from what I’ve seen no one in Congress likes the guy very much. If he wins the presidency, perhaps his nasty disposition will help derail SCOTUS appointments while the economy falls to complete and utter shit on the GOP’s watch.
it’s not like Obama or Clinton have especially unconventional ideas for dealing with the economy. Nothing new at all.
I’m latching on to your comment as an encouragement for everyone to head over to Firedoglake where Peter Edelman of Georgetown is guest posting today. He is blogging about the Supreme Court and he gives a decent summary of where “we are at” on the court and why the court should be a major concern to progressives.
For those who constantly say that the court is lost already – head over there and learn why it is not lost yet but is hanging by a thread. All of our happy thoughts about things that a progressive Congress (assuming we ever had one) could do are also hanging by that thread.
I predict Obama will win the nomination. I predict Hillary’s promised support will be tepid, at best.
I predict that when ANY media scrutiny is shown re McCain, he’ll go down in a hurry.
Obama will be our next president. And this country will have finally turned a major corner, away from the warmongering of the Clintons and the Bushes alike, and into a more peaceful, cooperative future.
at the knees herself, a la Lieberman. If she can’t win the nominatin, she’ll continue to dog Obama’s steps by feeding oppo to the Repubs.
I predict long memories for everyone if she tries to run again in 2012.
Man, even right-wing Dems gave grudging support to the party back in the day. This kind of thing she’s doing is unprecedented.
I predict that come 2012, if Hillary should choose to run for re-election to the Senate, that she will find herself facing a primary opponent with at least $20 million cash-on-hand – and that I’d be willing to fork out the first $2,300…
And I’ll match that.
I will, too. Con gusto.
I think you are wrong about Obama having nothing different on the economy. And I don’t have the specifics but others have done the work on it and I read up on it.
He has a circle of advisors that will handle things differently. And like McCain I am not a economist. So I can’t word it for you. It is full of supply side shit I don’t get.
But be assured, it will be different.
Franklin Roosevelt didn’t campaign on what he ended up doing. He had to make the changes when he got in.
Things like putting people to work in public service, is one idea he has. And spending the money rebuilding here, instead of Iraq is definitly a difference.
Zander1 did a diary a while back comparing economic stances on the whole financial sector mess. Far from being “nothing different”, Obama’s declared policies were orders of magnitude better than anything Clinton or McCain had to offer. Theirs were basically “keep doing what we’ve been doing, but do it better”, his was “fix the fucking problem already, people!” Though I hate to say it, at this point anyone who believes that Obama isn’t significantly to Clinton’s left on every issue that matters is a “low-information voter”.
I fear your prediction may well prove a damned good one.
I predict Nuclear Winter come May 31. Hillary will use the nuclear option.
Don’t count out Indiana. Polls have been wrong. And the ones that have her way up are nuts. I have been on the ground the past week and my area, which should be Obama land, they were 100% Obama and if they didn’t already vote, they sure were.
Of course she will win the Clinton hillbilles in the South. But the delegates are weighted in the North and the Indy areas.
So even a squeaker win for Clinton he will be ahead in the delegates.
However, voter rolls have been scrubbed in the areas where Obama is supposed to do well. I’m concerned that the Voter ID bill will prevent some of his supporters from voting.
I think it will be a split decision. But she’s still not going to catch him in delegates or the popular vote.
Also of note, the consensus of these predictions is roughly that Obama will emerge with a 99-88 pledged delegate advantage and an additional 130,000 popular vote margin.
Good point on the voters rolls. However, we went through the same thing in the Congressional races and it worked out ok.
But yes, you are certainly right, and it will hurt in Gary. But the Obamanites did a good job of being sure everyone is aware.
This is one issue Obama has been in the lead on in the Senate. Of course as far as I know it is not completed. But he will have more sway when elected.
I’m not too worried about the voter rolls . . . yet. A diary up on Big Orange is pointing out that before the purge there were more voters registered than there could possibly be registered voters in Indiana.
Still, I think it will come down to Obama will win NC, Clinton will win IN, and even when he erases the gains she made in PA she’ll keep dragging this out . . . as . . . long . . . as . . . possible.
Somebody please just shoot me. Don’t put me in suspended animation or I might wind up like this guy:
I think that whatever the most annoying result could be is what we’ll get. And this will drag on and on and on and on and on and on…..
mark your calendar. May 31, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to address the Michigan – Florida “seat the delegates” fight.
l predict a long, hot summer, with major disturbances in colorado during the period surrounding august 25-28.
and does the poster in this photo creep anybody else out?
brings to my mind russian propaganda posters from the lenin era…
click images to enlarge
gaaaaaaaaaaaa
Ewwwww. Just . . . just ewwwww.
I think the artist’s work is far more Eastern than that!!
Check out this Mao poster, almost worth an intellectual property fight, eh?
And yes, ew.
I think you’re actually looking for a Mao poster for the comparison. More apt simile, too, in my opinion.
They are scrambling behind Sen. Obama, in a pathetic and desperate display of me too-ism.
they’ve been playing “catch up” since the campaign started. running a late 20th century rovian/reichwing program, while obama put together a group of people who had, as it turns out, a pretty damned good idea of how to run a 21st century, 50 state one.
other than the occasional gaffe…wright comes to mind…it’s been brilliant, imo.
Oh, it’s been rich:
Obama has tons of college kids in his shots from Iowa. OK, we can get college kids, too!
Yes we can. Yes we will!
At one time, both she and Teflon John were saying that they were “fired up and ready to go.”
Of course, it’s getting harder and harder to see the difference between the two. One has more hair?
I predict I will get up Wednesday morning and avoid the cable talking heads for fear of ruining my day with reports of Hillary’s continued “comeback” or her “resiliency,” no matter what the numbers actually are.
Winner!
Seriously, when will this thing die? It’s like Iraq, if Hillary wins it means she must stay, if Hillary loses she must stay, but leaving is not an option because otherwise Reverend Wright will win, or something.
Well, lemme be the first commenter on this thread to make an actual numeric prediction, FWIW…
North Carolina
Obama 54.5% Clinton 45.5%, Delegates: Obama 61, Clinton 54
Indiana
Clinton 53.8% Obama 46.2%, Delegates: Clinton 38, Obama 34
I’ll write it up later, put I ran the numbers, adjusted for varying education levels, and traditional black turnout of 29%. It should be much higher. And here what I got.
Obama 54% Clinton 46%
CD-1- Obama 71-29, 4-2
CD-2- Obama 55-45, 3-3
CD-3- Clinton 52-48, 2-2
CD-4- Obama 60-40, 5-4
CD-5- Clinton 58-42, 3-2
CD-6- Clinton 57-43, 3-2
CD-7- Obama 51-49, 3-3
CD-8- Obama 56-44, 3-2
CD-9- Obama 52-48, 3-3
CD-10- Clinton 60-40, 3-2
CD-11- Clinton 59-41, 4-2
CD-12- Obama 67-33, 5-2
CD-13- Obama 57-43, 4-3
Totals: Obama 40, Clinton 37
The rest split 21-17.
Overall: Obama 61, Clinton 54
Not bad considering the very generous assumptions.
My picks:
NC
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%
IN
Clinton 54%
Obama 46%
I predict that PsiFighter’s prediction will be spot-on, once again. Consider:
PA Prediction vs. PA Results
I’m willing to bank on that level of precision.