This is my take on situation on war between Russia and Georgia over the latter’s separatist regions and its consequences for antagonists and Russia-Western relations.
Georgia
Common refrain now is that Saakashvili gambled and lost. Dearly. Of course he tries to rally people around himself as a war leader and will try to push American project of joining NATO. However with infrastructure destroyed and army disintegrated his grip on population may weaken. For the moment Georgians do not seem to have alternative to Saakashvili especially after he successfully removed his rival Badri Patarzakashvili, (media tycoon and business partner of Rupert Murdoch and Boris Berezovsky, he was at the centre of last year opposition movement against Saakashvili and died earlier this year under mysterious circumstances). However immense human and material costs of South Ossetian war will anger people after the end of actual military campaign.
Russia
Most commentators in the West are wary of Putin yet acknowledge that he emerged out of this conflict as clear winner. Whether he overplayed his hand will be seen only in future. It will depend on results of fundamental reshaping of Russia-West relations. Russia of course tries to use her leverage in the West on Iran, war on terror, burgeoning economic ties with Old Europe and first of all energy supplies to break possible anti-Russian Western alliance. Putin should be preparing strategy how to maximize damage for Western interests (there are 100 shades of grey starting from Western businesses in Russia, cooperation in UN security council down to Western wars in Middle East and covert support for insurgents) if anti-Russian alliance will materialize.
The West
The West is divided between US (adding UK and New Europe), Old Europe (France, Germany, Italy) and the rest which never had any opinion. US invested heavily in Saakashvili and Georgian army and it was huge humiliation for Washington that their puppet’s army was cut to pieces in just few days. That’s why expect more loud bi-partisan voices in US (from Cheney to Holbrook) asking for revenge. However this may be achieved only with Old Europe’s help (because the price that Russian may be asked to pay will be mainly diplomatic or economic). So the main question is whether Berlin or Paris are prepared for the start of the Cold War and inconvenience if not disruption for their lucrative trade with Russia.
Most people think it is unlikely at least for the time being but some negative policies for Russia may well continue like antimissile projects or enlargement of NATO.
The Rest of the World
The speed of this war of course did not give opportunity for the rest of the world to react, especially for such behemots as India or China (India is preoccupied with her rule in Kashmir crumbling after 60 years while China of course is in Olympics frenzy). But my impression was that reactions were mostly negative if only caused by lack of adequate information. Indian newspapers and TV channels almost did not report about the conflict except short excerpts from Western news agencies and I remember a curious headline in pro-American newspaper Times of India “2000 killed in Russian air raids”. The silence in former parts of Soviet Union is also intriguing.
One immediate outcome of the chill in Russia-Western relations will be that sides will start courting developing countries and the West have here big advantage despite its bad reputation due to ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However I do not see that any side will win more allies. Most countries like India will prefer to sit on the fence taking favors from both sides. Another casualty may be Dalai Lama and Hollywood campaign to liberate Shangri La. No doubt the West will start making advances to Chinese, and will be ready to forget about Tibet.
And the list of consequences of Cold War between Russia and the West is endless.
with a speech on Georgia. Despite his firm rhetoric he did not speak about what punishment awaits Russia if she will discard Western demands.
Such a disappointment for Cold Warrior studs like Holbrook or Cheney who were eagerly waiting for announcement of American sanctions.
It seems that whole last week American administartion is caught in indecision and quarrels over its Russian policy and Bush could not move against Putin without Europeans on board.
Anyway Russian analysts should be in high demand now trying to elaborate how they can punish Putin for humiliation the West have suffered in Georgia.
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Nice analysis and right questions put forward!
Rice went to Tbilisi just as tensions between Russia and Georgia were escalating. Standing next to Saakashvili during a press conference, she said that Russia “needs to be a part of resolving the problem and solving the problems and not contributing to it.” Saakashvili, for his part, was clearly thrilled to host Rice.
“We are also very grateful for your support for our peace plan for the conflicts and for your unwavering support for Georgia’s territorial integrity,” he said.
Interviews with officials at the State Department, Pentagon and the White House show that the Bush administration was never going to back Georgia militarily in a fight with Russia.
After mixed U.S. messages, a war erupted in Georgia
For now, the Bush administration decided to boycott a third meeting at NATO at which the alliance’s governing board, the North Atlantic Council, was preparing for a meeting with a Russian delegation that has been called at Moscow’s request.
Typifying the administration’s dilemma, a planned late-morning White House briefing by national security adviser Stephen Hadley was postponed “until further notice” due to ongoing developments in Georgia and in Moscow, where Sarkozy was meeting with Russian officials on behalf of the West.
Bush in Beijing and Russian PM Putin in Ossetia
≈ Cross-posted from my diary — Medvedev Declares End of Hostilitie ≈
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Holbrooke has no credibility.
Ditto McCain – his top adviser is on Georgia’s payroll
we hope this is not marching into an accident..waiting to happen under the cover of humanitarian aid:
George Bush warns Russia and announces US airlift to Georgia– The Times, UK