If it’s hard to be an effective senator in your first term, it’s even harder to be effective in your first two years. Appointed senators often find that they are not fully accepted until they have run and won a mandate from the voters. It was not until recently that first-term senators had the temerity to even speak on the Senate floor. To be successful, new senators need to establish that their word is good and to demonstrate a strong work ethic. If they are good at raising money, that helps.

We have a large class of freshmen senators this year, and it’s hard to project who will become influential long-serving members and who will fizzle out. One key is the ability to be reelected. Let’s take a look at the freshmen class (in order of expected long-term influence on the institution).

1. Mark Warner (D-VA)- Warner enters the Senate with immense popularity. His executive and business experience will place him in good stead. He should have excellent fundraising abilities. As Jim Webb already serves on Foreign Relations and Armed Services, I expect Warner to tackle economic issues and to represent his home state’s interests in the Intelligence Community. Expect to see Warner serving on the Finance Committee before long, and perhaps on Budget or Banking in the shorter term. He should be able to serve as long as he wants, building up seniority and eventually holding a key gavel. Role models: Kent Conrad, Max Baucus, Jay Rockefeller

2. Tom Udall (D-NM)- Like Warner, Tom Udall won election in a landslide in a state that is trending blue. Expect Udall, like his father, to become a national leader on environmental issues. He may also serve on the Indian Affairs committee, where he may make a quick rise. Udall will join Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders as recent additions from the House Progressive Caucus. He could quickly become a leader of an expanding left-leaning faction in the Senate. However, New Mexico is not so blue that we should expect Udall to vote as progressively as he did as a member of the House. Role models: Barbara Boxer, Claiborne Pell

3. Caroline Kennedy (D-NY)- Assuming she is appointed to the position, I expect Kennedy to hold this seat for the rest of her life. Both her name and her state should assure that she is influential (like Hillary) long before she rises the seniority ladder. She is almost assured to follow her Uncle Teddy’s example, both ideologically and as a workhorse. If she had more raw political skill, I’d place her at the top of this list. Role Models: Teddy Kennedy, Hillary Clinton

4. Mark Begich (D-AK)- Begich is immensely talented, but he will have to use all his skills to maintain his hold on this deep-red seat. If it were not for the threat of losing reelection, I’d put his long-term prospects higher on this list. Begich will need to tend to Alaska’s unique interests in the oil and gas industry and feed its rapacious appetite for pork. For this reason, expect Begich to win a seat on the Commerce or Energy committees, and to be quickly elevated to a position on the Appropriations Committee. We may not always like how Begich votes, but we’ll love the hard work he does in committee. Role models: Daniel Inouye, Jeff Bingaman, Robert Byrd

5. Mark Udall (D-CO)- Mark Udall ran like crazy to the right over the last several years as he prepared for a state-wide run in purple Colorado. I believe his instincts are good but he strikes me as an excessively cautious politician. I expect he will continue his work on the Armed Services Committee in the Senate and will represent the Air Force’s interests quite strongly. Despite his fairly progressive credentials, I would not be surprised to see Udall become a national security senator in the mold of John Warner or Carl Levin. His seat is not safe, but he could be a long-serving senator with a big profile. Role models: Gary Hart, Carl Levin, John Warner

6. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)- The most important thing you need to know about Jeff Merkley is that he was the speaker of the Oregon house. That means that he understands how to rise to the top of a legislative body. That is a different skill set than getting elected as governor, and it will pay to keep an eye on whether Merkley immediately begins raising a lot of money or volunteering for thankless jobs (like serving on the Ethics Committee) that will help him quickly rise in the leadership. Merkley might be the most progressive new member of the Senate, but I expect he may wind up working on Agricultural issues as a way of shoring up support from the eastern part of his state. Role models: Tom Daschle, Paul Wellstone, Russ Feingold

7. Al Franken (D-MN)- Franken may have to wait for some time to take his seat, and that may result in him being 100 on the seniority list. His first job will be to get his fellow senators to take him seriously. He’ll have to take whatever committee scraps are leftover and make the most of them. But if Franken can establish that his word is good and that he is a hard worker, he will eventually fit in. We know he is an expert at media and he’ll have no difficulty getting quoted. If he can win reelection, he’ll be on his way to replacing Paul Wellstone as a major voice in progressive politics. Role models: Bill Bradley, Paul Wellstone, Russ Feingold

8. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)- Shaheen has extensive executive experience, which should be a useful asset during her first-term. Shaheen is already almost 62 years-old, so I don’t know how likely she is to serve more than two terms. I also don’t know what kind of profile she is going to carve out. She might work on agricultural issues, concentrate on national security, or more on finance and budget. Role models: Debbie Stabenow, Maria Cantwell, Tom Carper

9. Kay Hagan (D-NC)- Hagan came from nowhere to defeat Liddy Dole, but she comes with a political pedigree. Her uncle was U.S. Senator and Governor of Florida, Lawton Chiles. She should fit in quite well in the Senate. I expect her to serve on the Banking Committee, representing the considerable banking interests of the Charlotte area. She will have to raise her profile to assure her reelection, but she has promise. Role models: Diane Feinstein, Blanche Lincoln, John Edwards

10. Mike Johanns (R-NE)- Johanns served as governor of Nebraska and as Bush’s Secretary of Agriculture. He should be able to hold onto this seat as long as he wants it, building up seniority. Don’t be surprised if Johanns rises to a position of considerable importance in the Senate. Role models: Chuck Grassley, Pete Domenici

11. Jim Risch (R-ID)- it’s no honor to replace Larry Craig in the U.S. Senate. Risch has executive experience as Interim and Lieutenant Governor. Provided that he doesn’t behave erratically like Rep. Bill Sali, Risch should be able to hold onto this seat as long as he wants it. That should enable him to build up seniority. Having said that, I don’t think Risch has the kind of personality that will translate into him becoming an important voice in his party and I don’t think he has the intelligence or work ethic to become a respected member of the Senate. Role models: Mike Crapo, Jim DeMint, Jim Inhofe

12. Mike Bennet (D-CO)- Bennet has never before held elective office and I don’t know much about him. He is currently the superintendent of schools in Denver, but he has held a variety of important positions, including in the Justice Department. He will need to win reelection before he is taken seriously by his colleagues, but I expect he will work initially on the Health, Education, Labor, & Pensions Committee under Ted Kennedy’s leadership. If he can place his stamp on the No Child Left Behind reauthorization, he’ll be off to a good start.

13. Ted Kaufman (D-DE)- Kaufman is a placeholder who is not expected to run for reelection in 2010. By that time, Beau Biden should be rotated home from Iraq and he will take his father’s position in the Senate.

14. Roland Burris (D-IL)- It is not assured that Burris will be seated in the Senate, nor that he will even seek reelection in 2010. For Burris to become a successful and influential senator, he will have to climb out of a very large hole.

How do you see it?