Steve Coll is a smart dude and an outstanding author. (Disclosure: I interviewed with him for a job in August 2008). He knows the Intelligence Community very, very well. Coll doesn’t think Leon Panetta is the right man for the job at the CIA. First, let me do justice to Coll’s argument. He lays out four main responsibilities for the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI).
Still, the C.I.A. director has four important jobs: manage the White House relationship; manage Congress, particularly to obtain budgetary favor; manage the agency’s workforce and daily operations; and manage liaisons with other spy chiefs, friendly and unfriendly.
Coll acknowledges that Panetta is well qualified to manage relationships with Congress and the White House, but he doesn’t think Panetta is well-suited to manage the workforce, daily operations, or our relationships with other spy chiefs around the world. Specifically, (and this is where Coll’s argument is strongest) Panetta hasn’t been involved in national security in the post-9/11 world, and that puts him at a disadvantage.
The essential problem is that Panetta is a man of Washington, not a man of the world. He’s seventy-years-old, spends his time on his California farm, and he’s been out of the deal flow, as they say on Wall Street, for about a decade; he knows California budget policy like the back of his hand, but what intuition or insight does he bring to the most dangerous territories in American foreign policy—Anbar Province, the Logar Valley, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas? Compared to his counterparts in Pakistan, Jordan, Israel, Britain, etc.—the critical relationships in national security that the C.I.A. Director alone can manage—he is a relative novice not only about intelligence operations but also about the foreign-policy contexts in which they occur.
In fairness to Coll, he also recognizes that Panetta will have value.
He will make sure the White House is protected from surprises or risks emanating from C.I.A. operations; he will ensure that interrogation and detention practices change, and that the Democratic Congress is satisfied by those changes; he will ensure that all of this occurs with a minimum of disruptive bloodletting.
Yet, Coll doesn’t think Panetta’s strengths outweigh his weaknesses. And, while I don’t dispute Coll’s main arguments, I do disagree on this last point. Panetta’s strengths do outweigh his weaknesses. They do so because Coll exaggerates Panetta’s weaknesses and gives short shrift to his strengths.
It’s important to remember that Panetta was the chief of staff to the president of the United States for several years in the mid-1990’s. In that role, Panetta worked every day with our Intelligence Community, including the chiefs. He worked with foreign heads of state and their high-ranking emissaries. Panetta was the second most important consumer of intelligence and knows what is useful and what is not. Coll doesn’t pay enough attention to Panetta’s relevant experience as chief of staff.
Panetta has two other key areas of experience. As Director of the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) he worked on the classified intelligence community budget. Having familiarity with that process is a major bonus for any Director. Panetta also served for 16 years in the House of Representatives, including as chairman of the House Budget Committee. It would be hard to find anyone with a better sense for the requirements of Congress.
Coll does well to identify Panetta’s main weakness. Panetta has not been working with intelligence chiefs in Pakistan, France, Germany, Israel, and Britain, and he will have to play catch-up on the issues. But Coll fails to mention that Panetta served on the Iraq Study Group which took a look not just at Iraq, but at our overall strategic position and interests in the world. Panetta may not be versed in the details of the Logar Valley in Afghanistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas in Pakistan, but he can learn that stuff very quickly.
The reason Panetta is a strong choice is that he is an outsider who has publicly opposed torture. But he isn’t just a front-man to put a happy face on U.S. intelligence, he’s a very competent manager with all kinds of very valuable experience. Steve Kappes is a master-spy, but he can’t bring a quarter of the assets to the table that Panetta can bring. Let Kappes run operations. Everything will be fine.
In my estimation, Steve Coll IS intelligence community. That’s why he’s upset re Panetta.
The spooks are always upset when outsiders come in and ruin their “fun and games,” as some insiders referred to their black ops.
I don’t know for sure what you mean by saying Coll is the Intelligence Community. He’s a lot like Sy Hersh. He has the best sources in the IC around. He will reflect their concerns in his writing. He may occasionally push a narrative that the IC likes over what might be a fairer approximation of the truth. But I think he’s still independent and makes up his own mind.
He’s a favored source. That has many implications, not all of them good or bad. But that makes him one of my LESS trusted sources, precisely because of his proximity to the intel community. Those who take the good info often fall for the crap info as well, in my experience. Sy Hersh has had some amazing successes, and some really horrific blunders (his book on the Kennedys is essentially ahistorical, for example).
I’m frequently hearing that slowing the expansion of covert ops is fear #1 and much of the rest falls into two buckets: fear of the unknown and fear of the bean counter.
Many of the best CIA heads were outsider/administrator types. I am sure they were met with as much caution when they started.
It’s kinda funny, but a common reason many in the CIA (which is factional to say the least) site for liking the current DCI is that he ‘makes them feel good about what they do’.
While there was a morale issue post 9/11, I think that’s code for unambiguous support for quasi-legal activities and a sense of continuity and stability. Very emotional stuff for spooks!
The consequences of this selection will likely include what I see as Panetta’s task (after which he steps down): remove or weaken those who participated in rendition and torture.
Those guys to be effected know who they are and won’t give the real reasons, but are kinda bummed that their careers will take this downward turn since they felt they had no other options when they made these ‘bad choices’.
I think the fact that he is likely to be free of a personal agenda is his real asset: people will know what he is doing and why without having to untangle his personal connections to it all.
Overall reaction seem mixed. That’s to be expected.
Another way of making my point is that David Ignatius is every bit as connected as Coll, yet comes to the exact opposite conclusion.
And for some reason, Ignatius has never bothered me as much as some of the others. I read one of his novels, and I felt the true man, with his distrust of the community, coming through.
The bottom line for Obama is that he can’t afford to be blind sided and played for a fool by the intelligence community as Kennedy was with the Bay of Pigs. The key thing is that Panetta reels in the agency, stops the torture and fun and games, and ensures that the CIA once again can be relied on to respect the law and the democratic process.
The more the free wheeling types squeal and are reigned in the better. If the budget can be brought under control and proper congressional oversight restored, then so much the better. Then Panetta can go home to his ranch knowing that he has done a key job and hand over to some proven intelligence professional who can be relied on to respect the law and President.
Panetta seems just the type of experienced heavy hitter to do this job – someone who can’t be messed around or led by the nose.
first things first:
If I understand right, you interviewed for a job with Coll…as in a job offer, he doing the nod?
If that’s so and he passed you up, then Coll ain’t too bright.
re Panetta pick for CIA Director -lack of Intel experience. That’s a slim to none excuse.
Remind me that some of the last CIA Directors had no such experience.
Panetta is a breath of fresh air with the appropriate amount of disinfectant.
Explain to me, as someone who knows nothing of the politics within the Agency, exactly how someone who has been a Chief of Staff for the President cannot administer the personnel at the CIA.
And how dealing with other heads of intelligence, friendly or unfriendly or ambiguous like Pakistan’s ISI, is not like any other politics. I think that he is a quick study at understanding the players and their motivations.
What Coll is alleging is that Panetta can be snowed, picked, and shucked. And that inability to sort out the truth within your agency and in dealings with foreign officials is especially dangerous after 9/11. What about 9/11 makes it more dangerous than any other time. Bush blew away nonproliferation monitoring by outing Valerie Plame Wilson. How would Panetta do any even close to being that dangerous?
So you were thinking of leaving us for some fancy, shmancy journalism job?!!
never read this guy before, but like what he has to say regarding Panetta:
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-rutten7-2009jan07,0,7523046.column
difi has apparently had her kumbaya moment, as she has now rescinded her objections to panetta…via huffpost:
oh dear, her feelings were hurt…but now that that’s all sorted out, she’s cool.
Did Rahm slip a horse’s head under her sheets?