Buried in a story about a challenge to the Voting Rights Act filed by a conservative activist lawyer and former law clerk for Justice Clarence Thomas was this interesting tidbit:
Ten percent of white Alabamians voted for Obama, compared with 48 percent in states not covered by the [Voting Rights Act].
I have to say, I was surprised by that figure. I assumed that southern states would naturally have a lower percentage of white voters who voted for an African American and Democratic President (if only because they are so solidly Republican), but I was thinking the percentage was likely more in the range of 70% against Obama and 30% for him. That 90% of all white people in Alabama voted against Obama is sad. And that figure isn’t much better in Louisiana and Mississippi, the two states which sandwich Alabama (Louisiana just under 15% and Mississippi at roughly 11%). In each of these states fewer whites voted for Obama than they did for Kerry in 2004 by a significant margin. Only white voters in Georgia (23% for Obama) and Texas (26% for Obama) come close to matching the voting pattern in these three Gulf Coast states in 2008. Contrast that with other traditionally red states where Obama garnered more white votes than Kerry had in 2004:
There were a number of states with considerable increases (labeled in the chart for a five point or greater gain.) The most interesting are North Carolina (up from 27% to 35%) and Virginia (up from 32% to 39%.) Clearly Obama could not have won those states on the white vote alone, but those shifts amount to roughly a 5-6 point boost in statewide vote share, certainly enough to matter.
Also interesting are traditional red states Indiana and Kansas, with gains from 34% to 45% and from 34% to 40% respectively. Also Montana and North Dakota are notable, with gains from 39% to 45% and from 35% to 42%. While the Democrat didn’t win three of these four states, these shifts demonstrate that they are no longer as out of reach for Dems as recent past elections might have suggested.
Obviously, the majorities of white voters in all of these states voted for the Republican candidate, but to a far lesser extent than they had in 2004 when the Democratic nominee was white. All, that is, except for states like Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana where one can only assume Obama’s race was more important than his politics. Heck, even in lily white Utah, hardly a bastion of Democratic voters, more whites voted for Obama in 2008 than they did Kerry in 2004.
Which isn’t to say the rest of the country is living in a post racial world. Far from it. I know plenty of people who voted against Obama in part because he was black, or they believed he would favor blacks over whites once in office. But 90% of the whites in my white bread suburban community didn’t vote against Obama. Here’s hoping the US Supreme Court Justice Kennedy doesn’t overturn the Voting Rights Act. Obviously, it is still needed nearly a half century after it was first enacted by Congress, with the full support (and professional arm twisting tactics) of a President from Texas.
Do they have numbers for Appalachia, or only statewide?
I think if you want to google hard enough you can find county by county stats for some states. I do know that West Va. had fewer white votes for Obama than Kerry % wise — by 1%. So, I don’t think that’s statistically significant. Alabama was 8% lower for Obama than Kerry in a much better year for Democrats.
Alabama is more significant, but West Virginia is a traditionally Democratic state with a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, and two out of three Democratic representatives. It is a lot like Arkansas in that regard. And Obama did much better than Kerry almost everywhere.
Funny thing is .. Arkansas is pretty anti-union(thanks to WalMart and Tysons I suppose) .. but WV is heavily union(mining and such)
Um…Steven: Nitpick: Louisiana and Mississippi don’t “sandwich” Alabama. Mississippi and Georgia do. Louisiana and Alabama have no common border (LA is west of MS, AL is east).
Know your Confederacy!
cheers, Geov
This post isn’t logical. I mean, I think you’re right, but the assertions you make are not logical.
Could you elaborate on that a little? What, specifically, do you find not logical?
It doesn’t logically follow (in the sense of actual logic) that people who don’t like black people, will disenfranchise their votes.
I mean it actually DOES in the real world, but not in the abstract.
But since this is an issue in the real world, the logic must be limited by real-word constraints. To examine the issue in the light of pure possibility would be an inane and misleading exercise.
Actually, there is both anecdotal and statistical evidence that a significnt number of people who don’t like black people DID vote for Obama. That’s why I came to the conclusion, while the campaign was still going on, that the problem for Obama wasn’t racism as such, it was racism plus stupidity. In other words, there were some racists out there who were intelligent enough to rank their prejudice on a scale of importance and find that some other factors outweighed it.
Still, it’s not surprising to find an irreducible core who just couldn’t or wouldn’t do that, and to find that they are not randomly distributed through geographic space, but clustered, statistically, in a few particular areas.
Nobody Black would be surprised, if you’ve ever been to Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. Add in Florida, and there are 4 Southern States where my Black behind just couldn’t live.
There’s the South, and then there are those places.
Of course, the Voting Rights Act is still needed.