I think Vaughn Ververs slightly overstates his case, but he’s right about one thing. Once Al Franken joins the Senate, the Democratic caucus will have sixty members. And that means that the Republicans will no longer have the ability on their own to filibuster bills. Whenever a filibuster is successful it will be because at least one Democrat is willing to buck their own party’s agenda. This is not that important procedurally because there is often a Democrat or two that opposes legislation in the Senate. But it’s important politically because the Democrats will have lost the ability to argue that the Republicans are responsible for obstructing their agenda. In the future, it will be clear that individual Democratic senators are wielding a veto pen.
This will change the pressure points in the Senate. Obama will be less concerned with pleasing Republican moderates than in appeasing Democratic centrists like Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh. The main change, however, is the leverage that Obama has over the Democratic centrists. Prior to reaching sixty, senators like Ben Nelson could vote with the Republicans to sustain a filibuster without incurring the blame for the result. The filibuster usually would have been sustained regardless of how Nelson voted. But, now, everyone will know that Nelson (or whichever Democrat filibusters) is solely responsible for frustrating the president’s agenda.
The Democratic centrists just gained leverage at the Republican moderates’ expense, but they also gained a whole lot more pressure to vote with the caucus.
The Republicans gain something from this, too. Since they can’t sustain a filibuster anyway, they’ll be under a lot less pressure to remain united in opposition. They’re basically free to join the Democrats if they want to. Over time, I expect that a general decline in Republican unity will be the biggest result of Specter’s defection. Look first to the voting behavior of the Republicans that are up for reelection like Lisa Murkowski and Richard Burr. But, also look at senators that prize bipartisanship like Richard Lugar, Orrin Hatch, and John McCain. Something is gonna shake loose soon and I think it will be the Republican base’s hold over the caucus, with a resulting loss of unity in opposition.
Agreed. I was listening to Bayh on Morning Joe this morning, and realizing that sadly, he’s now going to be the face of opposition. I hope it costs them politically to go up against this so popular (and with good reason, IMO) president in their own party..!
Actually, I don’t think this changes the calculus all that much for the White House. Team Obama was always going to go where they could to get votes – if Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson were holding things up but Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter could be swayed, he was going to work on them anyway. I don’t think that’s changed, except that there’s one less potential Republican target to sway and one more Democratic centrist to bargain with.
It may (emphasis on MAY) help with some folks a bit further to the right who want to work with Obama but don’t think they can. Dick Lugar comes to mind. McCain will do what McCain wants to do – I don’t think this changes the equation where he’s concerned.
But I actually think that this is going to paradoxically make the activist base of the Republican Party grab the reigns even tighter and “punish” those who step outside of orthodoxy even harder. They have to find a new target now for their “Ten Minutes of Hate” – a new RINO as a target for their outrage. It could end up being Snowe, but she’s reasonably safe in Maine and neither the Club for Growthers or the American Taliban are threats that she needs to take very seriously right now (plus she’s not up for re-election any time soon).
I’ll bet that McCain becomes the next target, actually. Limbaugh called him out by name yesterday when the news of Specter’s party change hit, and he’s the only Republican up for re-election in 2010 that likes the “moderate” label. Plus he pissed off the right-fringe of his party in Arizona with his fairly reasonable immigration stance (that he had to denounce during the election to get the nomination, of course), so he’s already a vulnerable primary target (as Specter was until yesterday). I’ll bet he’s where the outrage machine turns next in their desire to make the party more “conservative”.
And while that may be the case in the Senate, that unified GOP opposition will continue daily in the House.
Evan Bayh will think a truck ran over him if he obstructs Obama and Obama turns Rahm loose.
I’ve been generally disappointed with Obama, but Obama has often mentioned “The Chicago Way”. Well, the real Chicago Way is to decapitate those who oppose the Party majority and Rahm relishes the job.
Haha, as if Obama would ever spend political capital with Congress on helping Democrats.
sorry, I don’t see Specter’s second career flip flop as a plus in any way.
he’s just one more corporate lackey. he can’t even support something as basic as EFCA; he flipped on that as well as soon as the lobbyists for the Chamber of Commerce and other big biz interests started dialing up his phone to whine about “how much money they would lose” due to paying their workers an extra fifty cents an hour.
“loose”, not “lose”.
thx.
Ha ha ha. Looks like Specter got punked.
sweet, and reid looks like an idiot too!
God i hate that man, and now it looks like his colleagues are pissed off too.
i think I’ll make some calls and stir the pot.
I think you mean Reid punked himself.
There aren’t a lot of things that can get the entire Democratic caucus to start thinking that a change in leadership might be in order. One source I read said that this would put Specter at 8th in seniority in the current Democratic caucus – of the 59 current Democratic members (counting Specter) 51 will be bumped down a spot to make room for him in the seniority list. (Franken won’t be bumped when he gets seated because he’ll be seated after Specter regardless of whether Specter’s seniority counts or not. Sigh.)
Suddenly, Reid has just made 51 members of his caucus potentially quite angry with him. I wonder if any of them are angry enough to challenge his leadership over this. And if so, who might actually make that kind of move.
And in case people missed it in the other diary – see http://www.consortiumnews.com/2009/042909a.html for some useful background on Specter.
this is going to change the paradigm in the senate in many ways. not the least of which is that the excuse reed has been using to duck his responsibility for failure to move the agenda forward has suddenly vanished.
marcy wheeler at fdl pretty much nailed it yesterday:
it’s somewhat ironic, as harry’s claiming a lot of credit for bringing specter into the party…be careful what you wish for, eh harry.
Booman, I’ve read you for quite a while now, but this is the first time I’ve been prompted to post anything. I must ask because you seem to have a certain obsession with calling right-wing Democrats “centrists” when they clearly are anything but. Why do you persist in calling ducks “swimming chickens”? It’s mind-boggling and maddening simultaneously. Someone else called you out on this previously with a great analogy. It went something like: If you’re in a room with with 10 Nazis and 1 fascist, do you call the one fascist a “centrist”?
Blanche Lincoln is NOT a centrist.
Evan Bayh is NOT a centrist.
And Ben Nelson is the most NOT centrist-y of the all.
They are all Right-Wing Democrats. Let’s just be honest moving forward. You’re politically correct colloquialisms are offensive sometimes.
No offense.
i actually choose centrist over moderate to describe democrats and the opposite for Republicans.
Moderate – Centrist. Tomato – Tomahtoe.
It’s dishonest to describe them as either moderate or centrist. They are right-wing, corporate characters throughout. They make Lieberman look like Stokely Carmichael! What have they done in moderation? Anyone can be labeled a centrist or moderate next to Rush Limbaugh or Karl Rove. Are they your metric?
I’m not trying to argue with you. Really. Just what have they and Arlen Spector — Mr. Anything to Keep MY Divine Righted Seat — done to deserve such generosity and magnanimity from you? They’d all call you a glassy-eyed liberal in a minute when you’re really must more centrist than they are. See the distortion?
Centrist isn’t a compliment or an insult. It is a description of a politician that lies on the intersection between the parties.
Moderate contains the implication of reasonableness, which is a compliment. That’s why I tend not to use the term to describe centrist Democrats that voted with Bush.
Good points all. The dynamics will change.
Some are suggesting that Olympia Snowe of Maine may be the next defection. I agree also with latest Mahablog post asserting that most parties maintain some semblance of representation of the people but today’s GOP drives away the part of the public that doesn’t represent the party’s opinion…kind of bass-ackwards.
I expect more defections. Many in the GOP are distraught at what has become of their party.
It is one thing to prevent the up or down vote and another to end filibuster but vote against the bill that might have been filibustered.
This should be interesting.
And Lugar is already coming around…