I don’t know or particularly care whether or not the Obama administration is intentionally pursuing a policy of undermining Netanyahu’s coalition government (although I lean towards Josh Marshall’s view). But, I do know this: if Obama wants to get Netanyahu to do what he wants, he must make it clear to every Israeli that Bibi is acting under extreme pressure.
I may not agree with the prevailing political attitude in Israel right now, but I recognize that Netanyahu was just elected on a platform that is completely at odds with Obama’s policies. Netanyahu should not be expected to violate his campaign promises without a very compelling reason for doing so. It would be unfair and probably fruitless if Obama failed to put massive pressure on Netanyahu. This probably has to come in the form of a threat to withhold military aid, but I’m open to ideas for intermediate steps.
Ha’aretz puts it like this:
Netanyahu now understands what he already knew before the [Cairo] speech: The moment of political reckoning that he so feared is now rapidly approaching. The thunder he hears in the distance is the sound of the Likud legions and the West Bank settler hordes rolling down the mountains. The light on the horizon is not that of a new day, but of a train coming right at him – a night train from Cairo.
Netanyahu will have to decide over the coming weeks whom he would rather pick a fight with: the powerful U.S. administration, whose president sees himself in an almost messianic role, or his own coalition and members of his party.
The Obama administration can make his choice easier by being very visibly tough.
Exactly right.
“Almost messianic”? Ugh.
I noticed that, too. What is it with this idea that Obama supporters, or Obama himself, see him as a messianic figure? Sure, there’s a considerable sense of relief after eight years of Bush, but for me at least, my main expectation of Obama is that he won’t completely screw the pooch, not that he’s going to save us from doom or lead us into utopia.
Obama plainly thinks his approach is going to be effective; the guy practically oozes self-confidence. But it was the last president who had a messiah complex. This one has merely ordinary levels of hubris for a politician.
…to a cynical stump. They lack the hope that their values and objectives will be pursued, or the confidence that their actions can make a difference. They have embraced defeatism. Coming from that point of view, President Obama’s ambitions seem irrational.
Saudi FM to U.S.: Cut off aid if Israel doesn’t end occupation
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1090732.html
I think Obama looked at the coalition Netanyahu put together, and decided that even by Israeli standards this one is destined to be short-lived and achieve nothing. Not only does Netanyahu’s indebtedness to far right parties leave him no room to manoeuvre within his coalition; but Avigdor Lieberman came into govt with a money laundering investigation hanging over his head, and has now been interviewed four times by police who suggested last week they have enough evidence for a serious indictment. And indictments are usually the point where it’s hard to stay in office.
I think it’s going a little too far to say Obama’s trying to topple the Israeli govt, I think he just wants a particularly brittle coalition govt to die a natural death, and very quickly. If he can be seen with his insistence on the settlement freeze to have hastened its inevitable end, all the better for him. I’m sure Obama would much rather deal with a Likud-Kadima-Labor coalition, especially one that understands that the US is set on a two state solution and is no more obligated to play ball with a democratically-elected Israeli govt that opposes it than it was obligated to deal with a democratically-elected Palestinian govt that opposes it.
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Obama’s visits to Riyadh and Cairo this week, is an attempt to revive the Madrid conference coalition, which president Bush, Sr. formed after the first Gulf War, in October 1991. Incidentally, then too, the Likud, led by Yitzhak Shamir, “leveled harsh criticism”
against the U.S. administration and “expressed disappointment” at its refusal to recognize the natural growth of the settler population. We can assume that Obama has also heard the news that its number (without East Jerusalem) has grown since then, from fewer than 100,000 to almost 300,000. Enviable fertility indeed.
≈ Cross-posted from my diary — Neo-cons and Strange Bedfellows Up In Arms about Vocabulary ≈
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."