I don’t mean this seriously because the we didn’t face an either/or situation. But I wonder what Obama’s approval rating would be if his policies had done a lot more to create jobs and lesson the foreclosure crisis but the cost had been a slumping Dow Jones index. If, just theoretically, the unemployment rate was below 8% and gads of people had had the principal on their mortgages written down, but the Dow was at 6,000, would Obama be more popular?
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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Most people don’t have stock portfolios or, at least, don’t have much of one beyond a tiny 401k. What does the DOW mean to the majority of Americans? Very little to squat.
I have to say that I lost close to half my net worth last fall, which wasn’t much anyway. I gained back about 70% since Obama became president. Am I definitely in the majority in this experience.
We have as well – percentage-wise. We need that money – I cannot answer your question, but I’m in no position to complain.
You overestimate how many people have 401(k) plans and underestimate the fact that without signficant employer contributions, fewer people sign up for the 401(k) plans that are there.
For those with 401(k) plans, the volatility would depend on the portfolio. Agressive investors might not have gotten back much of their losses yet. Folks overconcentrated in one asset group might have had either a windfall or still be seeing falling prices.
Good question, but I think it was inevitable that his numbers would fall. Many had put him on a god-like pedestal – his fall in the polls was inevitable.
But it’s really sad to see so-called progressives helping tear him down. We should be looking for positive ways to change the world, not negative ways.
yes
I’m not sure. I don’t think his poll numbers would be great with a 2% reduction in unemployment if the DOW was THAT low. The Village would throw a fit and set the narrative.
I’m not sure how you get from 8% unemployment and a 7500 DIA to less than 8% unemployment and a 6000 DJIA except by this:
There was rapid growth in non-DJIA companies that DJIA companies failed to turn into profits either because of lower revenues or higher costs.
But in answer to the contrived question that you asked, I think that Obama would be more popular, but people would be worried about continued progress toward a prosperous economy. And that would be only because most people think that what happens to the DJIA reflects what will happen to them in six months or however far out the news mantra puts it. But few actually know what the DJIA is and what companies are in it.
Well, since we’re playing a thought experiment, the markets could have been rattled by a massive shift in federal policy that included nationalization of banks, strict regulation of mortgage products, massive write-downs of losses, and a massive federal jobs program that shocked them culturally.
So you are admitting that the Gods of Wall Street would tank the market on purpose? .. because that is what you are implying
I don’t mean to imply that at all.
People make trades based on some gooey feeling, not as a strategy to determine the actually number on the indexes.
While there are a few ‘Gods’ who can really move things in one direction or another, I am not talking about them.
What I am suggesting is that Obama could have made decisions that might have been hostile to Wall Street, thereby resulting in a lower index, but that were simultaneously good at creating jobs and keeping more people in their homes.
Under that scenario, since there was a massive jobs program, Obama would be very popular especially since is stabilized or lowered unemployment.
On the ground level, it would probably be better (not to mention policy) for his numbers. But I don’t think that would show up much in polls.
What you would have to take into accound would be this: remember the coverage when the stock market was doing poorly right when he got into office? FOX constantly harping on the “Obama bear market” and all the other news outlets just swallowing the sh*t whole? We would have had that, with the added “it’s been a year and it’s still not fixed”, going on this WHOLE TIME. While the stock market is not really a great indicator of the normal economy, most people don’t realize that and would automatically assume that things were going poorly – and pull down his numbers even more.
The ONLY way he would be better off (right now) in that situation is if he had both been able to frame the low stock market as “Wall Street is unhappy because I’m taking care of main street” AND also brought unemployment down to a more normal 4-6% range. It would have been extremely hard, given the situation, to meet either of those goals – much less both of them.
And all in all, he’s still fairly popular.
it’s not an either/or situation.
it’s also not in a vacuum.
at every turn, the truth is MAIN STREET is getting the shaft…
and, they don’t see a White House fighting, truly fighting for THEM.
they see the criminal bankers.
they see the nearly criminal and watered down credit card bill.
they see the government program SUPPOSEDLY setup to help those in foreclosure having a 1% success rate.
ONE PERCENT?
everything about THAT is an albatross around this White House and the Dems neck.
now, it’s semantics about whether Cash for Clunkers was a successful program. The GOP has some sort of vocabulary that could twist it.
but, they don’t need to twist ANYTHING here.
ONE PERCENT.
can you imagine the commercials the GOP can run on that single program, that will encapsulate the underlying feelings of disgust against the Dems and the WH about their neglect on Main Street? I’ve never done any advertising, but even I could write those ads.
if we were at 6% unemployment and folks weren’t being thrown out of their homes, I don’t think they’d give a crap about the Dow.