Adam Serwer has an apt turn of phrase when he describes the current agitation on the right as a “fear of ideological annihilation through demographic change.” Obviously there is a racial component to what we’re seeing, but there really is an ideological component, too.
A number of factors conspire to make the American government a hostile place for liberal or progressive ideas, including (on the far end) anything resembling European/Canadian-style socialism. There’s no point in talking to your congressperson about the merits of socialized medicine, for example. He or she can’t get an eighth of the votes they’d need to create such a system. If we cut the country in half, though, and created a Blue America (composed of the coasts and upper midwest) and a Red America (composed of the South, Plains, and Mountain states), we’d see something much different. The two countries would quickly drift apart, with Blue America embracing a more European economic system that is socially tolerant and secular in outlook. Red America would move to a more Wild West-style laissez faire economic system paired with severe government intrusion into personal morality and privacy, and severe immigration restrictions. What keeps our current system stable (yet paralyzed) is the rough parity between Blue and Red America, and the Senate makeup and procedural rules that give Red America outsized influence.
Yet, what cannot be done through legislation can be done through demographic change. It’s not only non-caucasian immigrants that pose a threat to Red America, it’s the culture of today’s youth which is tolerant of racial and sexual orientation differences, and is a bit more secular in outlook than their parents.
Non-whites should not be considered automatic Democrats. Muslims and Latinos come from religious traditions that align nicely with many of the socially conservative values that Republicans espouse. Indians and Koreans are famous for their entrepreneurial initiative, and share all the concerns that white small business owners have about governmental red-tape. But none of these groups can consider themselves welcome in Red America. Consider what co-founder of the Cordoba House, Daisy Khan, told Sally Quinn on the phone.
“It’s hard for us to imagine we are in the thick of a controversy like this. The Republicans are really going after us.”
Latinos know how Ms. Khan feels. Blacks have felt that way forever. And, since most Republicans can’t tell Hindus, Muslims, and Sikhs apart, almost no one of color can avoid the sensation that Republicans are “going after” them.
This creates a self-fulfilling problem for the Republicans. Their racism is driving away some of the immigrants that might vote with them on economic issues, which accelerates the blueing of America, which makes some forms of socialism more likely to take root here in the United States.
To go over this once more for clarity, the Republicans fear that people of color don’t share their values on both religious and economic issues, so they are panicking at the browning of America. But many people of color actually do share many of their values on both cultural and economic matters, and they’re being to driven to vote against the Republicans anyway. The more non-whites are inclined to vote with the Democrats, the more non-white immigration can be seen as a kind of Democratic voter-drive. And the more that conservatives see immigration as a straight-up threat to their political prospects, the more they alienate new immigrants with their toxic rhetoric.
All of this might seem encouraging if you are interested in a more pluralistic, tolerant, secular society that takes care of its vulnerable people, but the problem is that the Republicans are ascendant at the moment and are about to get a bunch of xenophobic, intolerant, assholes (to put it kindly) elected to federal office. History tells us that this is not something to take lightly just because demographics will correct the people’s error in fairly short order. History tells us to fight this rising tide of hatred and intolerance the same way our fathers and grandfathers fought it on Omaha Beach and Guadacanal.
Yet, it’s not all about racism. It’s also an awareness that the current status quo cannot hold in the face of demographic change. The Republicans could preserve more of the status quo if they would stop assuming everyone of color is their ideological enemy instead of working to make sure that they are all their political enemies.
Is there anyone within the Republican hierarchy who gets this? I wonder. Are there any quotable senior Republicans on this? I wonder if the message of a more inclusive Republican Party could come from the Bush paterfamilia?
George senior referred to his “little brown ones” with affection (seems like a really horrible description twenty years down the line) and the rest of the Bushies from Texas and Florida seem to be Hispanic friendly. George junior muddled along in Spanish on occasion. Or, have the Bushes spent most of their political capital along the way? Could be that they tarnished the Republican brand too much to continue to be players in that party.
So soon you forget. Why do you think Turdblossom pushed Dubya to do immigration reform? Because that was one math that Rove actually had a clue about. But I disagree with Boo. It’s all about racism. The top dogs of the GOP played with this ticking time bomb for a long time(since Nixon) and thought they could contain it. Now they can’t and we are seeing what happens. It’s just too bad the TradMed is too stupid to see it. I guess we can be thankful for one thing. They are shining a light on it, though it won’t make the GOP implode as fast if the TradMed were honest about it all.
There is little ground for optimism. The GOP can keep it up for another 50 years.
Angry, engaged minorities roll apathetic or detached majorities all the time.
So long as that emerging left-leaning, pluralism-embracing majority is flat out working for a living, raising kids and having lives, the semi-professional (often because retired), live-and-breathe wedge politics forces of the right have the upper hand.
In this battle, being normal is a handicap, and being sane is a detriment.
The ground for optimism is, I think, demographic. Every year this decade, approximately 4 million citizens will turn 18 and be eligible to vote.
First, let’s make a conservative estimate (based on the 2008 vote by those 18-29) and say—for purposes of illustration—that about half of them (so, 2 million) will vote in the average election. Second, let’s say (again, a conservative estimate, based on 2008) they split 60-40 for Democrats.
That yields a 400,000 vote margin in favor of Democrats (1,200,00 minus 800,000). So under this scenario, in 2020 the Democratic presidential candidate would start with a 4 million vote cushion provided by under-30 voters.
That’s what smart pols like Karl Rove fear.
The Republicans have many kindred spirits in Little Havana, so it’s not a matter of color for them. The problem is how to keep people from actually growing up. Terrible education is the Bush family legacy to America.
Promising a government that will act ‘in loco parentis’ isn’t going to attract many smart and able young people to the party.
” Indians and Koreans are famous for their entrepreneurial initiative, and share all the concerns that white small business owners have about governmental red-tape.”
As a liberal small business owner, I’ve never understood this ‘concern’ as expressed on the right. Outside of filing our tax forms, I’ve never experienced any type of Gvt intrusion, regulation or hassle. Not federal, state or local.
Maybe I’m just lucky.
For many of them, “intrusion” is a euphemism for taxes. And of course for the industrial concerns, “intrusion” is code for regulations protecting things like, I don’t know, the environment or worker safety.
The analysis is somewhat superficial I think. In my view a substantial part of our current reactionary hysteria (media hyped as it is) is the deep need to deny the overwhelming and public implosion of neo-con and neo-liberal regimes the last five years have witnessed. And I think this tendency to pretend that the catastrophe and fiasco of the Bush administration didn’t happen comes straight from the top, including much of the corporate media which supinely abetted the Cheneys and Rumsfelds of the world.
Of course I’m incredibly naive, so I still can’t quite imagine the Obama administration would engage in or countenance another bout of neo-conservative (and so necessarily self-destructive) meddling in Iran. I believe this despite the overwhelming error of our current policy in Afghanistan, surging towards the infinite horizon of indescribable victory behind the Alfred E. Neuman head of Saint Petraues.
Anyway, back on topic, I find the demographic analysis convincing in abstract. Unfortunately I’m deeply worried about the irreversible mischief that will be perpetrated in the 20-40 years before a theoretically more enlightened electorate arrives.
they’re racists, BooMan. they are who we thought they were.
Another demographic that they SHOULD capture are Filipinos. I know many who are Republicans.