I wonder how different things might have been if back in 1979 the Washington Post had run editorials calling for the U.S. to break ties with the Shah of Iran. Would we have been condemned to thirty-two years of implacable hostility, mutual terrorism, and lack of trade? Would real democracy with respect for human rights have taken root in Teheran? If we had supported the legitimate aspirations of the Iranian people would they have turned to rule by clerics and adopted a policy of exporting terrorism and armed resistance to U.S. interests?
Or, would we have lacked the credibility to turn on a dime and disown our sponsorship and responsibility for the Shah’s police state?
These questions are unanswerable, but it is interesting to see how anxious and incoherent the reaction in Washington is to the developments in Egypt. Some, including John Kerry, are warning us that Egypt may come under the influence of the Muslim brotherhood. Meanwhile, the Center for American Progress is completely sanguine about such a possibility, as if the Muslim Brotherhood is a force for moderation that shouldn’t concern us at all. They may rue the day that were so dismissive. On the other hand, they may be completely vindicated. Personally, I think the only really stupid analysis in a situation like this is analysis that provides any strong degree of certainty.
If Mubarak’s regime falls, there is no telling what will replace it, or how long Egypt might experience instability and/or lawlessness. No one knows how the next government will position itself with its neighbors, Europe, or America. We don’t even know if they’ll actually win their human rights and a representative government. Or, if they do, whether or not it will erode into something as lame as Iranian democracy.
We may find that these revolutions will spread to other places, from U.S.-aligned emirates on the Persian Gulf to major client-states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
This could be a fantastic development and a birth of freedom reminiscent of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the emancipation of Eastern Europe. But we should neither assume such a happy outcome, nor think that we will find these new democracies to be natural allies.
Can the U.S. pivot from supporting stability and the status quo to supporting the legitimate aspirations of the Arab world, even when those aspirations are hostile to our interests?
Maybe we could do that with wise leadership and a loyal opposition. But can we do this in a country with a disloyal opposition that is rabidly anti-Muslim?
I’m pretty scared right now. I gotta tell ya.
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Democracy is such a wonderful ideal when it overcomes a major rival in the Middle-East … and creates chaos. Every revolution offers new chances.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
LIVE coverage of the demonstrations in Cairo from Al Jezeera:
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
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How many more are to die because of greed, oil consumption and political rivalry ….
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
as i remarked to a friend who was ecstatic over the protests, “be careful what you wish for”.
considering the US’s long-standing role in propping up dictators in the Middle East, even if the revolts in Egypt (and Tunisia, and Algeria, and Jordan, and Yemen, and who’s-next) result in democracies, there is no guarantee that they’ll be our friends. After all, we have not been the friend of those currently revolting: they have no reason to trust the US.
so while I celebrate the popular revolts that may topple dictators, in my mind always a good thing, there will be ramifications for the US, many of them quite negative. But it is also true that, in our quest to maintain our dominance (or to maintain stability, depending on your point of view) we have supported dictators and repression: any blowback is of our own making.
“there is no guarantee that they’ll be our friends“
It’s a pretty sure thing that they WON’T. But, as I have said numerous times already, it’s really not ABOUT you, and the sooner Americans begin to understand that, and respectfully let other people run their own business, the sooner the United States will begin to develop real friends instead of the bought and paid for “friends” they have always had.
the u.s. basically finances the egyptian military. it’s huge aid package from the u.s. was basically the bribe to get it to sign off on the camp david accords. after 30 years the military establishment is completely dependent on u.s. aid. whoever ends up in charge next is going to have to keep the military happy, which means they will find a way to be nice to the u.s., at least nice enough to keep the gravy train flowing.
We thought that would be true in Iran…
iran never got an aid package nearly as large as what the u.s. currently gives egypt. nor was the shah’s military almost completely funded by washington, as egypt’s military currently is.
Some thoughts from Israel:
No question that the US is not interested in taking down its dictator Mubarak in Egypt.
From the Al Jezeera LIVE screen: “President Obama urges Egypt to institute reforms.”
Does he mean like, real democratic elections? Doubtful.
Much has been made of the role of Facebook and Twitter. And my personal hunch is that yesterday when we saw the press conferences pushed back later and later it was a WH conflicted between communications govt to govt vs a WH that was watching the grassroots communicate through Twitter that ended up being in direct conflict with the the never mind rhetoric of govt.
As our Admin listened they made an initial choice to gingerly position neutral and then lean away from the police state.
This morning I woke at 4 am to CNN news showing the streets filled with protestors, again organized (probably as a result of internet partially restored) and surging the Dept of Interior (police headquarters. There is blood, there are screams of terror and determination.
It is ugly and terrifying business and when not if Egypt topples the message will be lifted throughout the Penninsula and I am fearful of what it will bring.
Despite the human wall in front of the Cairo Museum looters were able to get inside the museum last night and it’s reported they have destroyed two of the mummies.
I’ve been in that museum and there are thousands of mummies in there. Two destroyed is pretty damn good considering the entire protest is being held within meters of that building with civilians defending it.
very good that they are defending it – saw that the military is now protecting it
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"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
This is so desperately reminiscent of what the Americans stood by and allowed to happen to the wonderful Iraq National Museum in 2003. Egyptians are so incredibly proud of their history. Who would do this?
Is that a rhetorical question? I’d say the kind of people would do it who are looking to make an Egyptian pound or two. Or is it the CIA?
That was at least largely the case in Baghdad 2003, but destroying valuable artifacts does not sound like a good way to go about it.
We don’t know if such news reports are reliable. If people have broken in, I assume that got out and took things with them. Why would they otherwise have broken in? Pleast note, I’m not saying the reports are not reliable. Maybe they’re incomplete.
They interviewed the head of the museum on Aljazeera, english. Some things were damaged, iirc nothing stolen. it wasn’t looting, sounds like crowd out of control. Watch the Aljazeera coverage.
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
I wouldn’t doubt that they are incomplete. In fact it is quite likely. It is also a fact that the Egyptian, Israeli, and U.S. governments have operatives among the population that they could send out to the demonstrations as agents provocateurs, and they may have done so. Hard to say at this point.
If this whole thing is a conspiracy, we’re completely lost. In fact we are anyway, because nothing good is going to come out of this for the Egyptians. Sorry, just my two cents, as they say. Wait and see. It is certainly odd that people would break into a museum for the hell of it. Think about it. The Egyptian Museum must be a fortress. No one just breaks in.
I don’t suggest that it is a conspiracy. However, the U.S. and Israel are bound to try to protect their interests in Egypt, and Mubarak is their guy and has been for 30 years, so it is not entirely out of the question that they would take steps intended to discourage or discredit the insurgents while making the usual hypocritical statements about supporting democracy.
I’m not saying they have done anything or even that they will, just that it would not be surprising if they did.
Why would the CIA loot a museum? that incident has been well covered. The Bush admin refused to allocate military to protect the museum despite the pleas of museum officials and archaeologists and ME scholars way in advance of USA arrival in Baghdad. The looting of archaelogical sites went on for years and is a tragic loss, was part of the international illegal trade in art and antiquities engaged in by ppl of all nationalities.
Who has suggested that the CIA looted any museum. Are we reading the same comments?
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When American History dates back a mere 225 years!
US Army camp at Babylon’s Hanging Gardens
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
American cultural boorism is sometimes beyond belief, isn’t it?
Not a helpful comment and also not true.
It wasn’t intended to be helpful. The U.S. military and the U.S. in general DID behave with incredible boorishness in Iraq, desecrating, marring forever, and even destroying precious antiquities. They set up bases at UR, the birthplace of Abraham, and at Babylon. They destroyed significant portions of those and other sites. The soldiers carved and spray painted graffiti on artifacts thousands of years old, stole bricks and other items from those and other ancient sites. The military thought and/or knew so little of the importance of Babylon that they rolled heavy tanks over as yet unexcavated areas, crushing the substrate, and filled sandbags from the site, probably destroying not only valuable artifacts, but the layering that informs archaeologists of the record and relationships. And they did this with the sanction of the U.S. government, and the apathy of most of the American people.
If that is not culturally boorish, then I have no idea what is.
PS I forgot to mention that they also used precious antiquities at ancient sites for target practice. Oh yeah, boorish.
Yes, I know all about that, see my comment above, although as you pointed out above what’s happening in Egypt is not about the USA so why bring it up anyway? Generalizing from that to all USAians is offensive, and, as I said, incorrect.
No, I did NOT bring up the USA at all. My remark was in response to a comment pertaining to the U.S. military base that was set up in Babylon which was in response to the looting/damage in the Egyptian National Museum. It was Oui who introduced the subject, not me. If you want to yell at someone for bringing up the Americans in Babylon, yell at Oui, please.
guys, I find this really offensive. are we in some national pissing contest here?
well the USA has nothing to do with the damage to the Egyptian Antiquities (as you point out above, this whole thing is not about the USA), though in line with Egyptian pride in its heritage the crowd was already trying to protect the antiquities and subsequently the military have added protection. In a crowd of 50,000 ppl anywhere one can find disrespectful boors imo.
Agreed that the U.S. likely has nothing to do with the damage, and the discipline and organization of the crowds has been pretty impressive especially under the circumstances.
In our area we have a group of self-described “anarchists” who come to every large demonstration, then go out and wreak havoc and destruction in the surrounding blocks (and guess who gets all the publicity). You are right. Any time there is major unrest, or a breakdown of order (including catastrophes such as earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.) there will be some people who use the opportunity to loot and/or destroy.
For the record, in my comment about Babylon I was not referring to boorish individuals, but to the incredible general cultural boorishness of the military and American contractors.
not sure what you mean by the Penninsula in this context
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"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
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"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Marc Lynch gives Obama good grades for his handling of the situation:
Obama’s handling Egypt pretty well
If there was ever a time I was thankful a Democrat is in office, now is the time.
People whom I respect a great deal would not agree with this analysis, and I don’t think much of it either.
“folk wisdom about decades of U.S. collaboration with Mubarak“
I hope his use of “folk wisdom” is not intended to be as dismissive as it sounds. It is a fact that Mubarak has decades of sometimes nasty collaboration with both the U.S. and Israel, generally to his personal benefit and to the detriment of the Egyptian people, not to mention the people of Gaza. And that collaboration does include torture for hire aka “special rendition”. Egyptians know this.
As for what the Egyptians need, they and not the patronizing Mark Lynch know that.
“should [not] think that we will find these new democracies to be natural allies.“
The likelihood of Middle Eastern democracies being “natural allies” of the 21st century empire is slim to none.
“I’m pretty scared right now.“
When are Americans, including so-called “progressives” going to understand that it isn’t ABOUT you (meaning in this case the collective you that is called the United States)? Without constant U.S. and other western manipulation, people will over time evolve the kinds of governing systems that suit them. Stop insisting that they evolve the kinds of systems that suit you.
Mubarak’s chances are slim right now. The citizenry of Egypt has been frustrated for a long time, and now they have unity and momentum. Prediction: The army will not fire upon citizens, and people will not stop protesting until the regime falls. Most likely the army will coordinate a new election for President and Parliament with advice from the US on how to run it.
The big factor here is that the good relationship between Egypt, the US and Israel has allowed a very prosperous and non-Islamist army to exist. It just so happens that a bunch of important people in the Egyptian Army are visiting the Pentagon this week. I’m guessing, and hopefully, that if the Mubarak regime falls (which I think it will), it will be a more-or-less managed transition to the next government.
“The army will not fire upon citizens…“
Too late for that.
“Most likely the army will coordinate a new election for President and Parliament with advice from the US on how to run it.“
I really doubt Egyptians are ready to allow the U.S. to “advise” them on a new election. The “good relationship” between Egypt and the U.S. has not been a relationship between two mutually respectful sovereigns, it has been a relationship between a self-serving empire and a self-serving dictatorship. It has also been a relationship that has for decades ignored (or worse) the needs, the welfare, and the basic rights of Egyptian people.
Jes’ keep on ‘a watchin’ that there news, Booman.
They gotcha!!! (Once again.)
Have you read my own take on it today?
Maybe it’ll make you feel a little better.
Or…maybe it won’t.
Oh boy!!! Egypt!!! A new “Hottest thing ever!!!” topic for ever-hopeful leftinesses!!!
Maybe you should.
Remember my post several years ago on Egypt? The one where I sketched out quite clearly what was up there and made a pretty accurate prediction about what was going to happen eventually?
We ARE “At War”. My observations after a week in the Middle East.
Why weren’t you “pretty scared” then, Booman?
Because I wasn’t an accredited newsperson/CIA asset?
Give me a break.
Why haven’t you been you “pretty scared” since you came into some kind of socio-political consciousness by the plain fact that about 90%+ of the world’s population has been kept in economic imperialism-enforced slavery by the Western European/American axis for over 400 years and to a man would like nothing beter than to see us hung by our thumbs over a very slow fire.
In fact…I think I smell something burning right now!!!
Why not?
Fear is addiction, and the U.S. mass media is perhaps the greatest pusher of addictive substances ever to exist.
Bet on it.
If you don’t read it in the news or see it splashed in full color all over the TV and internet…you ain’t scared.
Well, brother…you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
Bet on that as well.
AG
P.S.
Wake the fuck up.
Okay. This is great, congrats. I’ve also recently read more or less the same at Empire Burlesque. And I remember even learning about your visit to Cairo here at Booman. So this is what I now want to know from you now. What is going to happen in the little ol’ US of A (which keeps a piercing eye on the whole world!)? This should be really much easier to call than the seething crowds of Cairo since you live right in the middle of things and have been made in the USA. Will the people take to the streets to express their anger at their overlords? Well, I guess Obama, Bush, etc. are not quite as ‘bad’ as Mubarak.
Bush is out of office, we elected his admin out without taking to the streets. Yes, Mubarak is very much worse and not limited to 2 four year terms.
No, the overlords, not the goverment as such, the money brokers who are supported by the presidents and the rest. As if Mubarak is a one-man show.
First you must define your terms.
“Bad.”
Define it.
Responsibility for total amount of blood spilled and lives ruined worldwide?
Mubarak is a piker in comparison. A rank amateur. A street thug in the hire of Godfathers.
Or are you asking about style?
Polish.
Panache.
Yeah, Mubarak loses.
He is not as polished as are the bosses because he and his vile little slum fiefdom are infinitely less wealthy than is the American Empire. The images of “Obama, Bush, etc.” have been buffed to a fine lustre by the massive amount of media attention that is heaped upon them. Plus…like the bosses of any large-scale criminal enterprise…they maintain layer after layer of deniability between themselves and their dirty deeds guys.
Like Mubarak.
You also ask:
Please.
It has taken 30 years of complete failure, of garbage in the streets, bad food, foul air and blatant police brutality/corruption on every level for the Egyptians to finally get fed up. Plus their media is laughably weak in the hypnosis department compared to our own well-honed hypnomedia achievements.
Americans?
In the streets?
Not until there are food, water and fuel shortages, the everyday services to which they have become accustomed begin to disappear and the media go dark.
Now?
Not a fucking chance.
Why do you ask?
AG
The question was ironic. That’s all, you knew that. So, why did you ask?
I want also to say you do a nice job of outing Bush, Obama, etc. Mubarak is small change in comparison. But US people know that theirs is the greatest, so don’t quibble.
“…it is interesting to see how anxious and incoherent the reaction in Washington is to the developments in Egypt….Personally, I think the only really stupid analysis in a situation like this is analysis that provides any strong degree of certainty.“
It is hardly surprising to see how anxious and incoherent the reaction in Washington is when you see the crew that is taking the lead on it.
The truly knowledgeable Helena Cobban (who is married to William Quandt, another extremely knowledgeable Middle-East expert), hits it perfectly in on her blog with Obama’s know-nothings discuss Egypt.
As Helena notes, it has been thus for many decades. There are also some interesting comments below the post.
i respect cobban’s opinion a lot (and full disclosure, i know her daughter), but it is pretty funny that helena suggests bill quandt without mentioning that he is her husband.
People who read her blog regularly know that he is her husband, so it is not necessary to mention in that context. Note that she also has not suggested that she should be consulted in these matters when clearly she should.
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See also my new diary – Post 9/11 Failed Bush Policy and Aging Dictators in ME
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
I love the BooMan Tribune and especially BooMan himself who I believe is not only a gentleman and a scholar, but also a world-class mensch.
My only disagreement with this post is his emphasis on The Washington Post. I believe it was then-President Jimmy Carter who created the ill will with Iran that still persists to this day. Jimmy Carter preached human rights while, at the same time, toasting the Shah’s fabulous human rights record! And we should remember that it was Carter’s allowing the Shah into the US (for cancer treatment) that precipitated the Iran Hostage Crisis. And then there was that ill-advised hostage rescue attempt. His Secretary of Defense–Cyrus Vance–resigned over it.
Say what you want about the chattering classes–The Washington Post, John Kerry, Center for American Progress, etc. But the buck will ultimately stop with President Obama.