I agree with Matt Yglesias, but I’d put it in slightly different terms. The Bush administration was a colossal failure on every front, but especially from the point of view of a Tea Party Republican. When you look at a Governor Scott Walker or a Governor Rick Scott and you see the House Republicans trying to destroy Medicare, you realize just how far from satisfying the Bush administration was for movement conservatives. Bush expanded the welfare state, while everything these people believe says that the welfare state is unconstitutional and evil. Lower taxes and lax regulation are nice, and Bush packed the courts with lunatics, which is nicer. But torturing terror suspects and ripping up habeas corpus is no substitute for attacking public unions and screwing the elderly and destitute.
So, when teabaggers look around and see Governor Tim Pawlenty, he reminds them of George W. Bush without the swagger and the endearing ability to make liberals go apoplectic. If Pawlenty is lacking something it’s a record of being a strident and unmerciful prick to the poor, to minorities, to Muslims, to gays and lesbians, and to unions. Never mind that the lack of such a record is precisely what makes Pawlenty a plausible national candidate; he doesn’t excite the base.
Now, Governor Chris Christie, on the other hand, has the whole ‘dick’ thing down to a science, and that’s why you keep seeing Republicans begging him to run. But the suits are looking at Governor Mitch Daniels instead, and they actually hope that Bush’s failed accountant is going to give the party an adrenaline boost. As Steve Benen drily notes, “As a rule, political parties — especially ones that rely on a radical, hysterical base to win elections — do not get adrenaline boosts from bland wonks.” To that I’d add that movement conservatives don’t get excited by candidates who call for a truce on social issues.
It’s hard to see what Daniels has that Pawlenty lacks. As far as their records, Pawlenty has the advantage of not having presided over the decimation of the U.S. economy. The lack of any Washington-taint should be marked in T-Paw’s favor. And it’s not like Daniels has some compelling personal story or some superior ability to connect with the average undecided voter. There guys are both bland politicians. Their lack of scariness is their best asset in a general election, but the same feature makes them both lame primary candidates.
The GOP should probably stick with T-Paw and then maybe pick Daniels as his running-mate. It’d be a kind of Clinton-Gore thing, where the GOP picks a midwestern ticket of competent wonkish executives, a little on the youngish side, and with a strain of reasonableness not often observed in the modern GOP. They’d probably lose, but they wouldn’t lose really badly, and that’s all the GOP needs to win over the Senate and hold onto the House.
I wouldn’t waste my time with Marco Rubio. He’s too much of a crook and he’s way too green. And it wouldn’t fool the Latinos anyway. Do you think if we had to reelect Supreme Court Justices that black people would vote for Clarence Thomas? Plus, personally, I am beginning to get offended by the Agnews, Quayles, Cheneys, and Palins the GOP keeps throwing at us. How about someone who isn’t a crook and/or an idiot for a change?
I still think Rubio gets nod as VP. He probably delivers FL and while he doesn’t do much with latinos nationally, he’s probably a net positive with that crucial demographic. And he’d want it, even if its a losing ticket, since it makes him a viable candidate for 2016.
I wonder if T-Paw and Daniels both running cancel each other out and allow Romney to take this? And if there’s a brokered convention, who does that favor? Probably the most electable candidate, but isn’t that Romney?
It’s impossible to say who a brokered convention would favor. Even the day before such an event it would be hard to predict. Quite possibly, it would favor someone who didn’t run at all.
I could see Christie being the guy they go with in a brokered convention. I think he’s one guy that all the various groups in the GOP could live with- basically Romney with a tough guy attitude and no Mormon issues.
It’s an easier choice to accept a nomination than to make the decision to run for the nomination. So, the list of possible recruits grows quite long. Christie would definitely be nominated for consideration.
I’ve always hated the idea of a brokered convention. It screws the people who’ve run all year and their supporters.
Umm.. what kind of person who is neither would EVER run as a Repug?
Well, I guess I would as a false flag candidate.. Any donations available for my GOP run for the white house?
My platform? I promise to waterboard, briefly enslave, and then kill everyone who earns under 20k a year, at home and abroad. You all have 30 days to get your paperwork together. I am already watching you.
The platform is awesome, but I want more disenfranchisement. Something along the lines of Newt’s citizen’s tests.
Only if I get to baptize them too.
Rubio is my biggest fear in 2016. I’m not worried about him in this cycle. I don’t know how you can say you don’t fear him.
Agreed. There’s a whiff of Obama circa 2004 on this guy. Rising star, not a lot of baggage, fresh face, etc. Sky is the limit for him.
I just don’t see a reason to be a Republican that doesn’t begin with being a crook, an idiot, an asshole, or some combination of the above. Further, since Nixon, it’s a requirement to possess at least two of those qualities to win the nomination (unless, of course, you’re the never-elected incumbent, in which case just one will barely get you past Reagan).
You seem rooted to the idea that the USA needs a “reasonable” GOP for the political system to function. Yes, the electoral system more or less forces a two party dynamic, but there is no reason why the GOP has to be one of those parties. Better it goes completely insane and is consigned to history. Wait…
With Christie’s negatives now up an addiitonal 8 pts to 48 he’s weakening by the moment.
And the longer the GOP waits to endorse even a small group, the more they will end up needing a last minute “name” to enter and grab their audience. When you have a party that relies on emotion rather than debating facts, a Pawlenty just won’t catch fire.
The machine tells me that Obama is weakest on the economy so the best contender from the right would be a Rep with a good grounding in economic issues. Mmm, maybe Rudy is as close as they can come because I can’t find any Rep who can tout a strong economic success? Endangered species. And Rudy, well, that’s just sad.