It would be a whole lot more fun to watch Mitch McConnell squirm if I didn’t have to worry that he and Boehner are incapable of making a responsible move. They stood by, and even in some respects lent encouragement, as this brand new strain of Crazy metastasized throughout their party. Now they seem shocked to realize that they have the cancer, too.
This is pretty simple. They need 218 members in the House and 60 members in the Senate to sign off on a bill that will raise the debt limit. There’s no way to get seven Democratic senators to sign off on a bill that is opposed by the president and virtually every Democratic member of the House. Therefore, McConnell and Boehner need to tell their caucus that they either simmer down or they’ll be forced to cut a bill that has more appeal to Democrats than Republicans. Of course, the Crazy response to this will be that, if that’s the case, maybe the Republican Party needs new congressional leadership. So, say goodbye to those big offices and all the perqs.
It’s almost touching to watch McConnell try to explain to the Crazy that a balanced budget amendment isn’t going to pass, let alone be signed by the president. It’d be even funnier if McConnell told them how bad of an idea he thinks it is. How could they loot the treasury if they couldn’t spend money without raising taxes? At that point, would the GOP even have a soul? A purpose?
So, here we are with McConnell letting the train run off the tracks and he’s unwilling to do more than make a couple of nudges towards basic reality. He hasn’t prepared his caucus for the coming capitulation at all. And it’s getting very late, even for a game of chicken. Everyone knows that McConnell is bluffing. He doesn’t have the power to do what he’s being asked to do. He can’t do it. And he wouldn’t want to do it even if he could.
I just hope the White House is right, because they’re convinced that McConnell and Boehner will value their relationship with Wall Street more than their relationship with their Crazy base. But maybe it’s their jobs that are most important. If so, the country is screwed.
Surely the Senate isn’t actually working for sixty final votes on the deal, right?
Just sixty cloture votes? Because of the stakes? I don’t see how Republicans get more than a dozen or so Democrats (and Lieberman) to vote with these shenanigans. And you know that a couple of their own aren’t going to vote for it because they’re all just so damn teabaggy. Rand Paul, that Lee guy from Utah, DeMint, etc. But I can’t see why Reid/Schumer can’t get a bunch of their own to just vote for cloture and then keep their fingerprints off the final vote? Or would that be sandbagging the President?
Although I’m still not sure I understand the parameters of what is being negotiated on to begin with.
The White House is in an interesting position on this issue. They’re convinced that they can win because McConnell and Boehner value their relationship with Wall Street more than their relationship with their Crazy base. That is most likely true as back when Obama met with Republicans for the Q & A in Baltimore, he warned them that they were painting themselves into a corner.
But Wall Street is no longer the major large source of funds for Republicans. Wall Street has already dealt with its legislation; now they are focused on gelding the enforcement. The same really is true of the health industry, despite all the GOP sturm and drang about Obamacare. Who still has uncertainty about the shape of the future are the fossil fuel companies, employers bad enough to be subject to union organizing efforts, and of course the US Chamber of Commerce, whose future depends on having businesses dissatisfied about something that government is doing–something, anything, taxes are a perennial. And all the “small business” lobbying organizations that have copied the US Chamber’s model. And right now, these guys love Citizens United and they love the Crazy.
But what happens when the trainwreck actually happens? Wall Street in a Citizens United era can secretly desert the GOP. Business Roundtable corporations more dependent on the state of the dollar than “burdened” by government regulation can secretly desert the GOP. And fund Obama.
And the President maintains control over the operation of the Treasury. As well, revenues will continue to come in and the President can move resources to increase IRS enforcement. The President gains emergency powers not to spend money that Congress has earmarked. And can spend on what he deems essential to the government surviving the pressure to default. The exercise of going through every budget line item at a somewhat micro-level will pay dividends in time saved if the GOP forces a trainwreck. In that case, it is the President alone who decides what are essential services. At that point, the President as executive has options. The Congress’s only option is to either back down or let the President deal with the crisis alone. There are a lot of areas that the GOP does not want cut. What the President will be wise not to do is punish GOP grassroots constituents collectively and selectively. But corporations firmly driving the GOP? Open targets. And the legislative branch itself. One big open target.
For example, wrt the legislative branch, the Treasury could defer payment of all salaries in the government of amounts greater than the median family income of the US. Civilian and military–including the Supreme Court. That would be “shared sacrifice”. And prevent layoffs.
The Treasury could defer payments to all companies who had not repaid funds defrauded from the government. There are a bunch of military-industrial complex companies in this category.
HHS could up enforcement of situations in which medical providers are charging Medicare patients above what Medicare allows and then dunning them under the idea that they signed an agreement to pick up the difference. And step up fraud enforcement.
Interior could start fining mining operations for safety violations and denying permits to operations that had not paid their fines (cough, cough, BP).
The economy will be hell in the short term, but at least it will be clear for all to see who is causing the pain.
Does Obama have the guts to do this if the GOP push the country over the cliff? We’ll know by October 1.
And then there’s the FY2012 budget authorizations.
I don’t know for sure, because the WH won’t discuss it, but they are not likely to allow us to default. So, it could go to the 14th Amendment argument. They don’t want to do that, but they are not inclined to obey Congress of Congress is this irresponsible.
I’m ready for the 14th Amendment option.
I was stunned to see it in the 14th Amendment.
It had to be in there. It avoided claims from slaveowners for the seizure of their “property”, and prevented creditors of the Confederacy from seeking payment from the US government. Fortunately, they sought to reassure creditors of the US that Congress could not arbitrarily cancel US debts through default. The presence of this in the Constitution is one reason that the “good faith and credit of the United States government” means more than empty words.
It was necessary to resolve issues hanging over after the end of the Civil War.
A lot depends, I think, on who is perceived as paying politically for the situation in Minnesota. Everyone seems to be treating that shutdown as a dry run for the debt ceiling.
At this point, if I knew how to place an economic bet that they won’t raise the debt ceiling, I would put a large chunk of money on it.
I think part of why the White House seems fairly comfortable at this point is because of that awareness of the 14th Amendment option which would in a stroke render Congress’s cooperation and contribution irrelevant. Once that door opens, will there ever be a serious issue over raising the debt ceiling again? I doubt it. No, it would represent a shift in a fundamental power. The President can simply grab the wallet out of Congress’s hands and say “dammit, I’m tired of waiting for you. I’m just going to pay the frickin’ bill.” The Republicans may be inviting this as a way of avoiding the inevitable showdown with the crazies if they cave on the debt ceiling, but to everyone who isn’t a member of the crazy brigade they would just come off looking weak and ineffectual. They seem to think it might benefit them to do this because they can then paint the Dems and Obama as spendthrifts, but that’s not how it’s going to play in the campaign. Moreover, Wall Street can’t help but get rather nervous that the ONLY people the Republicans seem to be listening to are the crazies.
As I point out, the GOP has stronger corporate owners than Wall Street. Two out in Wichita, for example. A bunch in Houston. A brewery or two. And Rupert, the big media kahuna. There’s enough from these guys’ networks to backfill any donations Wall Street holds back.
This 14th Amendment Option <pulls out pocket Constitution and reads it> Holy Cow! If it goes this far and Obama starts using his executive power over the Treasury this way, Fox Noise will be screaming he’s a DICTATOR! Wing-nuts could start shooting… Obama can go on the news networks that will ALLOW him to talk to the citizens and calmly explain about Congress abdicating their responsibility all he likes but the SCREAM MACHINE could push the idiots to, ya’know, actually do something. That could bring Martial Law down on our heads…
Remember Bush II saying how much easier it would be if he were a dictator? All things considered, I’d rather have Obama be my dictator… because it’s now beyond obvious that our system is fucked up and somebody needs to take control. It would be a friggin’ relief if he just said, “You think I’m a Marxist/Stalinist well, here it comes…”
I’m not willing to give up my liberty for security but I’ll give it up for REVENGE! Forget frog-marching, I want to see all these crazy nutbags, traitorous tycoons and half of the Supremes & Congress lined up against a wall and shot! The Crazy has driven me crazy.