Lisa Mascaro and Kathleen Hennessey of the Los Angeles Times have a piece on the Republican capitulation. As I predicted repeatedly that he would, the Speaker is now in the process of explaining basic economic and political reality to the Tea Party elements of his caucus. Because they would not believe anyone from the Obama administration, nor any outside experts (a.k.a., economists), nor even their wealthy benefactors, Boehner was forced to have Rep. Paul Ryan give them a presentation.
At a closed-door meeting Friday morning, GOP leaders turned to their most trusted budget expert, Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, to explain to rank-and-file members what many others have come to understand: A fiscal meltdown could occur if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.
House Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio underscored the point to dispel the notion that failure to allow more borrowing is an option.
“He said if we pass Aug. 2, it would be like ‘Star Wars,'” said Rep. Scott DesJarlais, a freshman from Tennessee. “I don’t think the people who are railing against raising the debt ceiling fully understand that.”
Perhaps we should all adopt Death Star metaphors to communicate more effectively with Tea Party Republicans. It appears to be somewhat effective. In any case, we’re seeing precisely what I told you we would see. Boehner had to capitulate. Cantor got to play the role of bad cop. Now basic reality kicks in, and Boehner needs to explain to his caucus that if he has to rely on Pelosi for votes, he’s going to have to give on taxes, too, making it that much more painful for Republicans to walk the plank. In an effort to avoid a double defeat, he has scheduled some stupid, pointless votes for the next week that he hopes will satisfy his craziest members.
At the same time, Republican leaders orchestrated a series of public moves intended to soften the blow for conservatives. They agreed to give the House an opportunity to vote on two top conservative priorities: a so-called cut-cap-and-balance bill, which would order $111 billion in cuts in federal programs for 2012 and impose a cap on future spending, and a constitutional amendment that would require a balanced federal budget.
The Democratic leadership in the Senate is also expected to allow votes on one, and perhaps both, measures.
It’s more wasted time, but it might do the trick. If it doesn’t, it’s time for Pelosi to step into the limelight and make some demands on revenue. With the enemy in full retreat, they cannot organize themselves for defense.
I’ll believe it when (1) August 2 passes after getting a deal and (2) the legislative language sets up the Repulicans for Congressional defeat in 2012.
What Pelosi could have as a bottom line, but probably won’t) is 218 Republican votes for increasing the debt ceiling. Then, the Democrats could leisurely “vote their conscience”. If that included 218 Republican votes for raising revenue, I would say that politically we won even if economically we lose.
The big task if we are to have a prosperous, inflation-free, bubble-free economy is to drive a stake through the “no new taxes”, “drown government in a bathtub” mindset. And hang garlic around it. In the the bright sunlight.
Well, yes, that is effectively the threat. She’s already in talks with Boehner, according to the LA Times piece. But she doesn’t need him to have 218 Republicans votes. She needs him to pay her for a sufficient number of Democratic votes.
In fact, I would consider it very unfortunate if Boehner can collect 218 votes without having to pay a ransom.
Depends on what those 218 people have to vote on. Democrats in the Senate are leverage too.
This isn’t a capitulation. They are going to cut $1.5-2 trillion and add no revenues. That is what I thought the end would look like, and you said there would most likely be a clean vote. So…I don’t get it. Why were you, B-Joe, and joe all claiming how wrong we (me, Calvin, others)?
I mean, I’m still waiting to see the end result, and I would love to be wrong.
Forgive me if I am off the rails here, but from my reading of the situation they haven’t agreed to a damn thing. Obama OFFERED 1.5 trillion in cuts as part of negotiations, and then sat there waiting for the Republicans to come up with cuts of their own, or basically doing something other than sit there and say “And? What Else?” Just because Obama placed that on the table does not mean a thing about the final package, especially now that the house Democrats are part of the process.
If Boehner has to go to Pelosi for votes then she will be adding her own conditions. According to the link Booman posted there is no way a Democrat will vote for just cuts without tax increases, for example, and I don’t think the cuts will be a savage with Pelosi holding the scalpel as well.
Agree When I mentioned the 1.5 T figure a few days ago, I was told that I had poor reading comprehension.
Of course, I understand that “nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to” yet its funny how this figure keeps coming up, in article after article.
Yglesias had a good piece on why Obama might prefer these cuts to nothing at all…the logic is that they would come later, and thus not be anti-stimulative. In fact, I suspect they may not come at all. In other words, they might be something of an empty promise to do something or other after 2012. Let’s hope.
Could be that the 1.5T figure keeps coming up in article after article because everyone’s just going with the figure that first emerged as the “middle” answer, and nobody’s bothering to actually pursue whether it’s still true.
“One highly-placed source indicated about 1.5T….” ~ Newspaper A
“According to recent reports (Newspaper A) the current budget deal is 1.5T….” ~ Media Pundit B
“Our sources (A and B) indicate that the plan now before negotiators is 1.5T….” ~ News Show C
And so it goes.
Finally something Ryan is good for!
Thank gawd Pelosi was continued in her role as Minority Leader, now, as ever, she will exact the best ransom.
to 35%.
That is the single reason why the extremely wealthy are paying 16% in taxes.
That’s not going to happen on this round. We’ll be lucky to exact a ransom on corporate jet deductions, oil company tax credits, and ethanol tax credits.
As much fun as it is to see how many times you can use the words “capitulation” and “rout” and “debacle”, etc. in a week, wouldn’t it make more sense at this point and wait and see what legislative magic our dear Senate ultimately comes up with?
Because if there’s one group of people that can craft a deal that leaves literally nobody happy (except for the Treasury department, I guess), it’s the Senate. The Senate is where good things go to die a horrible death.
Maybe the grownups are finally getting the kids’ attention. And they’re still gonna take it down to the wire.
2012 might be a better metaphor. I haven’t seen the movie, but from the trailers and reviews I’ve seen, the story line is just hoaky enough and apocalyptic enough to register with the tea party crazies, and the title itself lends that little extra sense of urgency.
This spoof trailer was so much better than the actual film…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW2qxFkcLM0
could be wrong (hope not), but it seems to me that it’s very difficult to specify $1-2T in cuts in a bill without having a huge amount of work in the background to write the bill.
With lazy-ass GOP wankers like Boner in charge, a “huge amount of work” is nagahapen.
Okay, okay, I suppose that there are some huge hacks that could be done quickly, but that’s the kind of stuff that won’t pass. (stuff like “let’s abolish the Dept of Education! Stupidity for Everyone!”)
So they’ll pass something simple and whine about it a lot. Or not pass anything in a fit of pique, and act amazed when they’re the guest of honor at the resulting Auto de Fe.