As reports come in that NATO is bombing Gaddafi’s compound, we don’t even know where he is. Everything is smoke and mirrors in Libya, as has been the case for my entire lifetime. I’m with Andrew Solomon. The truth has been a casualty in Libya for so long that it seems too much to expect any honest accounting of objective reality from there any time soon. I don’t know a single soul whom I trust both to understand Libya and to tell the truth about what they know. How can a country so long abused by propaganda and the insanity of Gaddafi’s Green Book be expected to act in a predictable, functional, and rational manner? Soloman expresses my feelings quite well with this:
The workings of the Qaddafi machine are shrouded in seven veils of obfuscation, and it is unlikely we will ever get the full story about what has gone on there, insofar as such a story is even knowable. Saying what will happen is an even dicier exercise; those who cannot know the past are destined to befuddlement, though things are looking pretty grim for the regime.
I don’t know that things are looking any better for the country. Can the victors equitably and peaceably share the spoils? I don’t have a goddamn clue, and anyone who tells you that they do is going out on a limb or simply lying to you.
Booman, it sounds to me like you would like a straight reporting of facts. There are famous experiments where people see the same event and everyone has a different perspective so I see truth as a different matter — more of a cosmic, metaphysical concept.
What I look for are people that tell me their perspective and beliefs while they are reporting facts as they see them so that I have a way to evaluate their information. If they make sense and fit with the way I see the world [not Tea Party or radical right], then I add that to information I have.
I enjoy reading your perspective. I don’t believe I’ve seen you mention Juan Cole, but he’s also someone who fits my criteria. He tells me why he thinks the way he does and what he has observed. He’s been talking about Libya.
http://www.juancole.com/
I’m so far removed from understanding the situation in Libya that I just appreciate you, Juan Cole and others that I respect and feel I at least get what I consider is an informed perspective.
The war is not over. It is an information war and a cyberwar in addition to the normal fog of war.
There are some things that appear to be true. The coastal highway is open from Sebetha, west of Tripoli to Misrata, east of Tripoli. Gaddafi launched two Scud missiles from Sirte, aimed at Misrata. NATO intercepted both of them.
Gaddafi’s troops are trying to keep the coastal highway cut off between Sebetha and the Tunisian border with an mortar and rocket attack on Zwara from two nearby towns.
NATO is attacking Gaddafi’s compound tonight, and reporters at the Rixos Hotel (who are essentially hostages) reported that they interviewed Saif al Islam, who the TNC supposedly captured and was holding yesterday for the ICC. And Mohammed Gaddafi escaped house arrest.
All the US thrashing about is premature. But it is clear that Gaddafi is about gone.
I’m mildly concerned at the moment that Saif Qaddafi was supposed to be arrested and possibly on his way to the ICC, and then, oh by the way, he’s actually free and hanging out at the Rixos hotel. What. The. Fuck.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/23/us-libya-saif-idUSTRE77M01S20110823
Think the rebels were looking for Saif and his ego let them know where he is now.
First rule in this conflict. Believe no one.
Gasp! Not even Obama?!
Am I a bad person to admit that I don’t give a damn about “spreading freedom and democracy” in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Colombia, Somalia, Ethiopia (pirates?! LOL), Greenland, etc. or anyplace else where the US drops it’s bombs (of peace and security)?
You are a wrong person if you think that what is happening in Libya is the US spreading freedom, rather than the Libyan people taking it for themselves.
You are a mistaken person if you think there is any comparison at all to the conquest of Iraq.
Pardon me. All of this “fog of war” propaganda has gotten me all confused.
There’s plenty of good, reliable information out there if you’re interested in finding it.
Al Jazeera English has been great. Juan Cole. Richard Engel.
The thing is, there’s an “if” statement on the end of my sentence. Not everyone is actually interested in having reliable information on which to base their opinions. There are those who believe that the proper ideological stance is all one needs.
I assume that Obama has some good intelligence, but I don’t he is any expert on Libyan society. It’s one of the reasons I opposed getting involved. We don’t even know who we want to be in charge of Libya, or who might be a unifying force and who might arouse violent resistance.
Boo, I really need help here because I see no difference between this “hostility” and Iraqiranistan. The common demoninator is “resources” also known as oil or probably natural gas. The rhetoric has become less silly (“kill them over there to keep them from killing us here”) but I can’t find one reason to invest myself in any way. After the US deposes this dictator (whom the US installed or helped to install and enjoyed in the first place a la Saddam but never mind that), the US will install another US-friendly dictator until the new one decides to skim more than his quota from the top or actually tries to (OMG!!!) do the devil’s work of nationalization, then it’s deja vu all over again with the deposition and another round robin.
Then the poor troops. I believe I’m supposed to laud their service to our country. But I really don’t. I see them as dupes serving the plutarchy that controls this country’s political class. I don’t believe they’re protecting our country but making the world more dangerous. Then I’m called unpatriotic when I fail to Pledge Allegiance.
I guess this is the Ballad of the Blue Leftist. I know this note is disjointed and lacks focus but I’m at work and I don’t have the time to compose a thesis. These are simply stream-of-conscious concerns that I cannot shake in the midst of all this cheering because the Wicked Witch is dead.
Remember, “oil doesn’t spill.”
I can’t find one reason to invest myself in any way.
You’re not much of a liberal if you don’t consider Arab Spring to be something to support.
After the US deposes this dictator (whom the US installed or helped to install and enjoyed in the first place a la Saddam but never mind that)
Wait wait wait – you think that the US helped to install Moammar Gadhaffi? Um, no. He led a coup against a US-allied government, with Soviet backing, during the Cold War, kicked us out of the country, and became a Soviet client.
the US will install another US-friendly dictator
You’re saying this, six months after we kicked Mubarak, a long-time American ally who was the cornerstone of our foreign and security policy in the region, to the curb?
The Transitional National Council just put out a statement that they will not allow any NATO based in Libya. But they’re just little puppets who will install a dictator. Sure they are.
A Vision of a Democratic Libya: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=democratic+vision+libya&aq=f&aqi=&
;aql=&oq=
I’m sorry that I don’t believe you or anyone in this debacle and that that’s a problem for you. This entire charade is destined for befuddlement. Your righteous indignation leaves me cold. Also, Arab Spring sounds stupid. Who could be against flowers?
You don’t know nuthin’, and you’re determined to keep it that way.
Fine. Congratulations.
And you know it all from the comfort of your armchair. Congratulations to you, too.
I certainly don’t know everything.
But I’ve made an effort to keep myself informed.
Checking my gut just isn’t good enough for me.
Heh, not even the Angry Arab is this cynical. That’s quite an achievement.
“Arab Spring.” I knew that that term had a familiarly manipulative, let-freedom-ring air to it. Sounds like the “Miracle of Chile” that was engineered by Nixon, right-wing corporations and the CIA in 1973.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_of_Chile
“Sounds” to whom?
I’d say your comment illuminates you, much more than anything that’s happened in the Middle East.
We’re not the ones putting people in charge.
This is a feature, not a bug, that there is no Libyan Ahmed Chalabi waiting for us to drop him in and declare his king.
It’s always a crap shoot when you overthrow your country’s dictator. Look at the Russian Revolution. Look at what happened in France after Louis XVI.
I don’t see this as a reason not to back the youth/labor movements that overthrew Mubarak and Gadhafi, though.
How do you know that we’re not putting people in charge? That sounds like an ideological stance and it seems as though it’s all you need, sir.
The Transitional National Council just put out a statement that they will not allow any foreign bases on Libyan territory. This is a government that is still waiting for us to release $30 billion we froze in Gadhafi assets.
But they’re going to allow us to install a puppet?
That sounds like an ideological stance…
I’m sure it does, to you. You’re clearly not familiar with a factually-based viewpoint.
The UN will determine when and how he US releases those funds. I don’t expect the Obama administration to play the sort of games with that money that Bush played with the oil-for-food money in Iraq.
This isn’t smoke and mirrors. This is just the fog of war.
I don’t know a single soul whom I trust both to understand Libya and to tell the truth about what they know.
I trust Richard Engel and Juan Cole. I think they have pretty good records.
How can a country so long abused by propaganda and the insanity of Gaddafi’s Green Book be expected to act in a predictable, functional, and rational manner?
Libya has a culture that goes back a lot further than Moammar Khadaffy.
Here is some clarity. The TNC military and a whole bunch of volunteers, some at the last minute have taken Gaddafi’s compound, a complex of tunnels and bunkers and there are lots of Libyans with Gaddafi souvenirs, from one of his military hats to a gold gun to the golf cart seen in one of his first speeches after NATO actions began.
A dozen or so journalists (and not just from Western media) are virtual hostages in the Rixos hotel, which seems to be the last part of Gaddafi’s compound that has not been surrendered. Western media outside the hotel and with the TNC forces report that there is a tunnel that goes from the compound to the basement of the Rixos hotel.
The tribal leaders in Sirte are reported to be surrendering their weapons.
The coastal highway is now clear from Tunisia to Misrata.
TNC troops now hold all oil refineries and terminals in the country and have dispatched additional forces to protect oil wells from sabotage.
The explanation (note choice of words) by the TNC of the mysterious Saif al Islam “escape” is that they heard the rumor floated but could not confirm it. So they decided to play it as if it were true, which had some positive political results. Thirty countries recognized the TNC. The ICC asked for Saif. And Saif got forced into the open; they knew he was in the Bab al Azizia compound. The money quote: “The results were beneficial.”
Friday, the contact group and the TNC will meet in Qatar. The likely outcome is a bridge loan to stabilize the country and get the economy moving again. A bridge until the UN releases the money seized from the Gaddafi family, allies, and business entities. Apparently some of this $19 B + assets are real property that might take some time to sell.
Jabril delivered a speech this afternoon. The most quoted line among the Libyan (and expat) Twitterati was “Democracy is not just institutions; it’s a mentality.” Rank and file Gaddafi regime personnel have received a blanket amnesty except when they committed “crimes against humanity” or war crimes. One of the regime high officials who defected late will allow himself to be put on trial for the actions he took during his four years of authority.
African Union countries are in a diplomatic bind, most having supported Gaddafi. The TNC will be asking for Libya’s seat at the African Union and the Arab League. The only major sub-Saharan country to recognize the TNC so far is Nigeria.
Two oil tankers have left Benghazi for Quatar, and three are waiting their turn. A bunch of cargo ships are waiting to dock in Tripoli. Ironically, one or two carry supplies that were intended for the Gaddafi regime.
The TNC is working deliberately and quickly. And there is a lot of experience among the TNC organizations in the technocratic aspects of running a country. They are not starting with inexperienced sons and daughters of Republican ideologues.
What is striking about the pictures from Tripoli is how young the bulk of fighters are. The seasoned leaders, some of whom are seasoned for six months, are in their forties or so. Apparently there are a number of expats who have come from the US and UK and other countries back to Libya just to help get this job done.
Volunteers from Tripoli have been manning makeshift field hospitals near the areas of greatest conflict. There is a lot of self-organization and improvisation going on. One structural engineer who was a TNC fighter cobbled together a reconnaisance drone.
But you would know none of this if you relied on the US media. There are outstanding CNN and other US personnel in the field. Their reports go out on the international versions of CNN, for example. Little gets aired in the US. Skynews (ironically) has provided outstanding on-scene coverage. Al Jazeera’s coverage has been respectful of the hard reality that are hidden behind the celebrations.
I have a better sense of what is going on in Tripoli than I do in Washington — except for an earthquake and a small but growing demonstration against the tar sands pipeline.