Let’s discuss Steve Benen’s observations on the latest New York Times/CBS Poll that shows Congress is now confirmed as considerably less popular than the Herpes simplex virus. This is especially true of congressional Republicans.
Of course, if congressional Republicans, perhaps even motivated by self-interest, wanted to boost the institution’s approval rating, they could do so rather easily — they could work with Democrats on a jobs bill, among other things. It would work wonders for their poll numbers.
But we know that won’t happen. The GOP’s far-right base wouldn’t tolerate it; Republicans wouldn’t risk boosting the president’s standing; conservatives don’t understand the basics of economics anyway; and since the GOP wants to undermine Americans’ confidence in public institutions anyway, it’s inclined to reject job-creation efforts to advance the larger goal of pushing voters to give up on Washington altogether.
Still, less than a year after the Republicans’ “wave” 2010 midterms, nothing says “buyers’ remorse” like a 12% approval rating.
The polls appear rather unambiguous. People hate Congress and they really hate congressional Republicans. But is Benen correct when he says that the Republicans could turn things around by cooperating with the president and passing a bill that would potentially create a couple million jobs? That’s not clear to me. As Benen notes, the Republicans want to undermine confidence in public institutions. If people don’t believe in government, they will tend to prefer Republican rhetoric and resist progressive proposals. It’s hard to argue that they haven’t been successful. At the very least, they’ve been successful enough that a generalized anti-government attitude is strong enough to sustain a counterbalance to the fact that, when polled, the people tend to support the president’s proposals.
Let’s start with a depressing observation. Because congressional Republicans are now as unpopular as they were during the height of the 2008 economic collapse when the country was absolutely exhausted from eight years of Bush, there is little downside risk to continuing to obstruct. What risk exists is in failing to improve their polls numbers. But their poll numbers are only one factor in how congressional Republicans will fare in next year’s elections.
Most obviously, if the president does as well in the suburbs as he did in 2008, his coattails will wipe out dozens of Republican seats in the House. The GOP therefore has a powerful incentive to make the president look weak. They can accomplish that by simply refusing to pass any bills that he’s willing to sign. In addition to making him look weak, they also can prevent any measure from passing that might improve the economy. An improving economy will almost ensure Obama’s reelection, particularly because the Republicans do not have strong presidential candidates.
Another factor is noted by Benen. Cooperating with the president would upset the Republicans’ far-right base, potentially depressing their turnout. Of course, the president cooperating with the Republicans can depress his base. As for the middle, they’d be happy to see a functional government that can actually work together to solve problems, but they’d probably reward the Democrats for that more than the Republicans because it would show that government can work and that the president can bend Congress to his will.
Now, if at any point in this process the Republicans actually put the good of the country in front of their cynical ideology, this would be a no-brainer. If you have a 12% approval rating, you’re doing everything wrong and should try something else. We only have one president at a time, and he should be allowed to try to fix the economy based on the advice of his economic advisers. If it doesn’t work, people will elect someone else. If it does work, that’s great for the country.
But the Republicans want to destroy Obama’s presidency more than they want to help people who are out of work, losing their homes and, increasingly, living in poverty.
As a result, their current maximally-obstructive strategy probably makes the best sense for them.
The ‘Steve Benen’ link circles back to this post.
thanks. That should be fixed now.
correct link to Benen’s article
achh, Boo, you beat me by 18 seconds
As a result, their current maximally-obstructive strategy probably makes the best sense for them.
That depends. Will it let Orange Julius keep the Speaker’s gavel past January, 3, 2013? I have my doubts, even with newly gerrymandered districts. All the more so if the President drops the post-partisan nonsense and makes the case that only Democrats want to fix things so more elected Democrats need to be elected(Yes .. I know it probably won’t get framed that way .. but that should be the goal .. how ever it is framed).
I didn’t say it would work. I said, given their nihilism, it makes more sense to bring everyone down to their level than to try to lift all boats.
Great post and deep thinking. The question is: what’s the end game for the GOP’s doubling down on obstruction and extremism after the disasters of the 2006 and 2008 elections? I think one road is for the financial and business elite to shift their support to the Dems unless the GOP can at least marginally participate in keeping our government functioning. Under that scenario, I think you see a few half measures passed in Congress to keep the economy from going over the edge, and then Obama gets a 50/50 shot at beating either Romney or Perry. Another road is for the GOP to keep on obstructing anything and then, as you suggest, taking their chances that a double dip will give their candidate a great chance of winning. What’s left unsaid is what happens when 2012 turns out to be another extremely close election, perhaps one candidate winning the popular vote, losing electoral college, or what if there’s voting shenanigans in one of the GOP-controlled swing states, or what if the changes in PA make the difference. How will the country react? The Tea Party I believe is ready to take this thing in an authoritarian direction- we’re already there. What about the dems? If the military had to choose, what would they do? I know this is doomsday type stuff, but I think its time to think hard about how all this could play out.
Looks like Boehner isn’t properly hewing to the Tea Party line.
Boehner Gets Primary Challenge
Sounds about right, huh?
I hope David Lewis wins.
In Boehner’s district that might not be out of the question.
Damn. I figured his biggest threat was Cantor wanting the Speaker’s gavel.
The GOP strategy will reach a point of diminishing returns. It may already have reached it. Maybe Nate Silver could figure this out.
Working or not, the GOP strategy is a kind of protective crouch. They have zero to contribute to helping this country, in fact everything they do makes matters worse. And this hasn’t changed in nearly three years. That’s time for people to figure it out, figure out how it works, figure out how to use it to their own advantage. The Republicans have maneuvered themselves into a corner, baring their fangs like a cringing cur but unable to get anybody on their side besides those that are already in that corner with them.
The biggest joke on them (and on the emoprogs as well) is that they really, truly believe Obama is weak. That’s what he wants them to believe.