Hopefully, you’ve heard that only two candidates qualified to be on ballot in Virginia for the Republican primary: Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. It’s rather inopportune for this news to come out a mere week before the first contest, in Iowa. It makes Newt Gingrich and the other non-qualifiers look extremely unelectable at the exact time that they’re trying to make the opposite case. If I’m opposed to Romney, I have to take a harder look at Ron Paul. As far as I am concerned, there are three things to look for as potential outcomes of the Virginia fiasco.
First, it could take more air out Gingrich’s tires, but also any momentum Rick Perry or Rick Santorum might be building in the Hawkeye State. Ron Paul could be the beneficiary of that, and he might post a stronger victory in Iowa than people are anticipating. There’s another subset of voters who are opposed to Ron Paul on foreign policy issues who may just throw up their hands and settle for Romney. We might see a result where the third-place finisher polls quite far behind the second-place finisher. In other words, we could see a strong Paul victory, followed by a relatively weak second-place finish for Romney, with the rest of the pack in single-digits.
Second, Gingrich is still polling well ahead in both South Carolina and Florida. His job is to do well enough in Iowa and New Hampshire that his polling lead in the South doesn’t evaporate. Failing to get on the ballot in Virginia is a major blunder that makes Newt’s job much harder.
Third, now that the Virginia race has become a one-on-one contest between Romney and Paul, we get to find out which candidate has the true ceiling. Ironically, Ron Paul has a lot of support from rank-and-file members of the military. Members of the U.S. Army and Navy are his two biggest financial contributors. Yet, Virginia is awash with active and retired military officers, who will tend to be opposed to Ron Paul’s positions on military policy and spending. And then there is the Intelligence Community. The Virginia primary will be a true Clash of the Titans, and we’ll learn something most of us want to know. Also, remember, Virginia law prohibits write-in votes in the primaries. This will be a true race for 50+1%. The assumption has always been that neither Romney nor Paul could actually win such a contest, but one of them will.
If Ron Paul wins in Virginia, it’s hard to see why he couldn’t win the nomination. But the Republican Establishment will do anything to prevent that from happening.
Grab your popcorn. This is going to be interesting.
Paul seems to be the current non-Romney in Iowa. As has happened to all previous 4 occupants of that position, the spotlight exposes some of their… eh, problems. Which is why people seem to actually consider Santorum as a possibility.
I lack the necessary qualifications (i.e. clown college degree) to judge the mindset of a typical Iowa GOP caucus goer. But the Virginia situation might appear to make Paul more professional and electable. Which could sustain him in a top 2 position out of Iowa.
Which raises his chances in New Hampshire and, just as importantly, lowers Romney’s. I think Huntsman is poised to eat into Mitt’s NH share.
So I’m doubling down on my estimate of the post-NH situation: a weakened Romney and an ascendant Paul. The GOP establishment types aren’t going to like this. South Carolina voters will probably choose Newt or Perry or Dominionist to be determined later as the non-Romney non-Paul candidate.
The media will have great fun with this. And Florida — won’t even venture a guess.
But come Super Tuesday, when Paul is the only non-Romney option in Virginia, and surely the favorite in Alaska and Idaho caucuses… the media will love this day.
I think that’s Ron Paul’s high point in the campaign. But he will sure have put a stopper in Mitt’s March of Inevitability. The non-Romney candidate who has now emerged could drag this on.
To paraphrase Barney Frank, I’ve not led a good enough life for the race to the right which will follow. Must run out to buy stock in Daily Show and popcorn.
They weren’t serious candidates. if only 2 Democrats qualified for a primary in a major state, the MSM would say how ridiculous the party was. but, crickets for the GOP.
Gingrich is hilarious.
The two are comparable only in the sense that they are both disasters. I assume that is the point he’s making, right?
Yeah, I don’t see that level of self-awareness.
Since both candidates are well organized and well funded, either can do some real damage to what should be the final nominee. It just warms my heart to see the Rep money boys forced to shell out big bucks to kill off one of their own ticket and to see those that aspire to Paul’s various hatreds lose their gun money.
Hate is a hard thing to shake but the sheer volume of attack ads is bound to splinter the focus of hate towards Obama. Sooner or later some are gonna look in the mirror.
You also don’t have to register with a party in Virginia to vote. It’s an open primary. Expect a lot of Dems to wreak havoc.
Speaking of which:
Link
This helped McCain win in New Hampshire and South Carolina (Romney and Huckabee respectively would have won if just Republicans voted).
I got home (in Virginia) from vacation yesterday, and there was a phone message from the Gingrich campaign dated Wednesday, IIRC. I almost never get phone spam from Republicans. Sorry I couldn’t do my part to get Newt on the ballot.
You’re becoming crazier with your anyone-but-Romney mania than actual primary voters, Booman.
…Ron Paul isn’t going to win Virginia. You’re grasping at straws.
I didn’t say he was going to win Virginia.
What am I supposed to do with this then? You’re just fishing for something, anything interesting to write about for the next six months?
“Rep. Paul, with the benefit of hindsight, do you really believe that the United States shouldn’t have entered WWII, even after Germany and Japan declared war on us?”
“Rep. Paul, do you really believe that social security and medicare are unconstitutional?”
Yeah, the “Republican Establishment” is really gonna have to work hard on that one…
His fuckwad of a son just had to scam a single state. Papa Paul will have to do it at least thirty times. It’s not going to happen.
And his opponent is so much better?
I don’t like saying this because of past historical implications, but Ron Paul is pretty much defiantly unAmerican.
Look, guys like you and me are going to find Romney a joke. Fine. Whatever. It’s not our say that he’s gonna win.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry had decades of experience in this game, and they can’t even get on the ballot in the south. It’s over. Romney is the only professional-ish candidate left. He’s the only one who was willing to challenge (and get obliterated by) Barack Obama. Everyone else hid in the corner.
If you want excitement or intrigue in 2012, you better hope that some Euro bank goes belly-up and the money markets freeze again. Or Iran has a successful nuclear test or something crazy like that. Otherwise, this election has zero pulse.
There’s Huntsman.
There’s always a chance that Republicans will get over their fear of the Kenyan Kooties and notice that he’s actually a conservative with a very respectable record. Isn’t there?
I said Huntsman had an opening in New Hampshire like two months ago — not that it was a good one — but Joe’s been dismissive of him (for good reason).
I doubt he’ll go anywhere. He is upticking right now with 12%, though. If Romney under-performs in IA, and Huntsman over-performs, it’s possible for a surge in NH.
I doubt it…but it’s faintly possible.
Plus, this VA ballot thing is an absolute disaster. It’s not that strict of a requirement…10k registered voters, 400 from each district. I could probably get that done…
If Republicans are going to get over their antipathy for Huntsman, they’ll have to get Fox News on board. I actually watched the last (or second to last, not sure) debate on Fox, and every time they cut to commentary and also in the post-debate wrapup, the only person they hated more than Ron Paul was Jon Huntsman. It was pretty weird watching how they’d talk up Newt and Mitt, and then the knives would come out and they’d spend extra time slicing up Paul and Huntsman.
Huntsman. They hate that dude over there.
now that the Virginia race has become a one-on-one contest between Romney and Paul, we get to find out which candidate has the true ceiling.
Maybe not. Maybe turnout just crashes. Maybe half as many voted are cast in the Republican presidential primary in 2012 as were cast in 2008, demonstrating that both candidates have a ceiling of 25%.
It seems that the Occupy Wall Street movement has started on an electoral strategy for 2012. At least in Iowa. They are advocating uncommitted delegates be sent to the national conventions for both parties.
Whatever your opinions about this particular strategy, if it gains traction it could be a very interesting 2012 convention in both Tampa and Charlotte.
My guess is that it will work well enough in Iowa, but most primary states will have already shut out the possibility of uncommitted delegates. But I’m not up on the ins and outs of party primary rules.
In other news, it appears that Ben Nelson is retiring. At this rate, the unpopularity of incumbents problem might solve itself before next November. Wonder how many others will be taking the hint.
It seems that both the Iowa Republican Party and the Iowa Democratic Party will not be allowing “uncommitted” as a choice of candidates in their caucuses. This departs from previous practice in Iowa. Reportedly, in 1976 “Uncommitted” won the caucuses.
A possibly naive question: Why would someone vote for “uncommitted”, unless they knew the delegate(s) personally? Aren’t they just surrendering their choice to some stranger?
I don’t know how the Iowa caucus system works, but my sense is that the caucus sends a delegate to the county caucus, which sends delegates to the state caucus and so on. At the local (precinct?) level, it’s a sure bet that folks know the delegates. From there on, it’s a matter of numbers. The uncommitted delegates are instructed, as I understand the proposal, to select candidates (and not just for President) that truly represent the interests of the 99%.
You questions are good ones.