I wonder what Republican voters will think when they learn that their votes in the Pennsylvania primaries mean nothing to the Republican establishment.
“The Republican Party needs to put forward a ticket which allows us to attract swing voters, attract Democrats,” [Republican Rep. Phil] English (R-Erie) said, “and build a working coalition to make a state like Pennsylvania competitive.”
Complicating things – and perhaps playing into party chieftains’ hands – is the way Pennsylvania Republicans choose their delegation. At a time when Santorum most needs to cut Romney’s advantage in delegate strength, GOP strategists say he could wind up with few, if any, delegates here – even if he carries the popular vote.
In the state’s two-tiered presidential primary, the popular vote is a nonbinding “beauty contest.” Potential delegates to the summer GOP nominating convention run separately on the ballot in their home congressional districts – uncommitted to any presidential candidate.
The aspiring delegates on the ballot include a virtual who’s who of party elders: members of the GOP state committee, current and former members of Congress, local elected officials, and activists with strong party ties. Though Pennsylvania’s Republican leadership is officially neutral, it has been leaning toward Romney, and there is what one operative called a “presumption” that delegates will be receptive to what the party – and Gov. Corbett, also officially neutral – wants.
“Winning the primary doesn’t mean the delegates follow,” said Alan Novak, a former state GOP chairman who is supporting Romney. “Most of the delegates will be familiar with the process … pragmatic political thinkers.”
Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, both of whom have Pennsylvania roots, have managed to place supporters on the ballot as delegate candidates in many congressional districts. But Republican operatives figure only about a half-dozen of those candidates are solidly in the Santorum camp.
The contours of the campaign played a part in this. Santorum began as an underdog who bet everything on the Iowa caucuses – which he narrowly won – and then scrambled to organize in succeeding state contests, leaving him necessarily more focused on day-to-day survival than recruiting potential delegates back in Pennsylvania.
All of which make it easier for state party leaders to muscle delegates into Romney’s column, regardless of how well Santorum does with primary voters.
The most important thing here is that the people of Pennsylvania know Rick Santorum best, and we, including most Republicans, think he’s a sanctimonious fraud and a nasty unpleasant person.
But it’s also important that people understand that the nominating process is not an election. It’s a process where voters are led to believe that they are making a choice but in which their wishes can be discarded at will. Go vote for Santorum or Romney if you wish, but the party bosses will most likely ignore what you say if they don’t like what they hear.
I don’t like Santorum at all, but he deserves a fair chance to get the nomination. He isn’t being treated fairly by the Republican establishment.
they aren’t interested in collective suicide.
Have they been paying attention to how Romney has run his campaign?
I think they’d rather down in quicksand than be dropped in a vat of acid.
Romney’s campaign is looking worse with each week. The guy spends massively and yet can’t knock out challengers.
Back in January, who would have expected to hear Romney celebrating delegate pick-ups in Guam?
He’s shown a real failure to adapt to the changing circumstances. Going into 2012, Romney was positioning himself as a competent conservative who could appeal to the middle. But now he’s simply blathering. On Fox News Sunday he was making the most empty charges against Obama – that he doesn’t have the experience (!) to deal with foreign policy. When Romney was asked what he’d do about Afghanistan, all he said was that he’d seek the council of general in charge over there.
Romney is supposed to be a quick study. but I’m not sure anymore. He only talks in headlines, not exhibiting much knowledge about deeply held conservative philosophy. And this is a minor point: Romney didn’t fill out brackets for the NCAA tournament. He could have looked over the field, read a two-sentence summary about each team, and filled in the card. Use whatever standard you want (better defense, on a roll, the coach) and fill it in. But he just couldn’t do that. It’s a small, but significant sign that he will not, or cannot, connect with the average Joe.
Yes, Santorum would probably lose big in the general, but Santorum might get the party faithful to come out big in red states and make secure at the state level the Republican gains of 2010. Romney has a severe problem exciting the base.
Let’s not forget that Santorum has the populist flag, not Romney, and populism is still strong in this country. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Republican poo-bahs pivot to Santorum, given his surprising resilience in the face of being outspent 5 to 1.
Oh My God–we agree! Santorum is despicable! Only someone as pathetic as Romney could have put Santorum in this position.
Potential delegates to the summer GOP nominating convention run separately on the ballot in their home congressional districts…
So the delegates are actually on the same ballot as the presidential candidates? So people probably just check a box there without really even knowing what they’re voting for. And if they see a familiar name, they’re probably inclined to check that one over a bunch of unfamiliar names. And there’s probably a long and incomprehensible explanation of what the delegates actually do on page 57 of the voter information pamphlet.
Boo:
If Mittens gets over the hump(1,155 or what ever delegates he needs) with out the establishment’s help, then this is a moot point. If he doesn’t, I wonder what kind of backlash there will be.
well, it’s going to be bad. And it will be worse if it’s done by states like Pennsylvania voting against Santorum on the first ballot even though he won the state.
I pray that you are right. And I hope that crackup doesn’t end any time soon.
the entire GOP Nominating process is a fraud.
and these GOPers are JUST getting the clue that the thing is fucking rigged?
He was elected from PA, but moved out ASAP. He lost in 2004 (?) partly due to his residence status.
Where is he from at this point?
It’s particularly disgusting that he was not a resident of PA, but charged his pretend home school district a huge sum to allow his wife to miseducate his children in their home in VA.
yes, really egregious
He lost in 2006. By 18 points!! To a potted plant that didn’t even campaign.
Hopeless…all I can say now is Rubio in 16!
Rubio will probably be worrying about his Senate seat. The worms are beginning to turn in Florida and he’s … well, he’s Rubio.
He’s a cuban. Hispanics in general hate HATE Cubans. Cubans get a free pass, and all other hispanics get persecuted to the nth degree. He is a totally fake candidate. Just another fascist anchor baby who will have his own issues about citizenship.
We shall see…I can usually tell who the Left is most afraid of by how visceral their reaction is…based on that barometer, you Progressives are scared crapleas by Rubio! You guys love to talk about how “Demographics Equals Destiny”, assuming that the G O P is done because it is the party of old, white males…guess what…there was actually once a time where blacks voted overwhelmingly Republican…if the GOP is smart, it will target Hispanics as an essential part of our base…Hispanics are generally socially conservative, and value hard work and self-sufficiency…if the GOP plays its cards right, we win this group. Rubio would be a great first step.
But they’re not smart. And we’re almost hitting the threshold when they’ll never go back with Obama. 70-14. At this rate we’ll be hitting 80-10 by 2016.
You’re kind of slow, aren’t you. Cubans are not the same as “hispanics”. In fact, there is no such thing. The Repukeliscum have alienated a large proportion of hispanics, but Cubans who are the heirs of the Battista bullies, criminals and thugs from Cuba are fascists. There is no similarity between Cubans and other hispanics.
Tell me, why did that change?
By that standard then you have to say that the left is really scared by Santorum and Gingrich. rools eyes
I don’t think the GOP understands the fundamentalist part of their base and has not gamed out how screwing Santorum out of the nomination will play. It is not that “Santorum is a candidate we like”, it’s that “Santorum is a tool of The Lord”. That’s makes those who oppose him perhaps just misguided, but those who oppose him underhandedly tools of Satan. I love the prospect of the GOP running with a religious contingent loudly calling them tools of Satan. Most of the big Christian leadership won’t, of course. They are political players. But there are a zillion small-time preachers who are more sincere and have less to lose turning against the GOP.
Beat me to it. If the Santorum succeeds in preventing Romney from getting a majority and he’s still the nominee…there will be blood.
One more thing: the fundamentalist base is crucial for downticket races, too. This is the crowd the GOP has so effectively lured to the polls with anti-gay initiatives in the recent past.
The big question is, given the very real efforts and results to implement religious dictatorships at the state level, will the fundies be encouraged to turn out further by their local results, or will they be depressed by their treatment at the national level?
They can’t be excited by a Romney ticket, and even Santorum has the distinct disadvantage (from a Southern perspective) of being a Catholic, but across the US they’re seeing victories (so far) against abortion, contraception, and the ability of people of color to participate in elections. Which instinct is going to prevail this year?
I actually think the reason they are pushing so hard on the contraception thing is precisely because they intend to screw Santorum if they must. They’re trying to appease them pre-emptively.
Sorry, but that’s a lot of pronouns. Do I understand your meaning correctly that the establishment GOP (Romney & supporters) are pushing contraception in order to appease the fundamentalist base, thus stealing Santorum’s thunder and screwing him out of the nomination?
Not to steal his thunder, but to try to keep the fundies from turning on them too hard if they have to take the nomination from him underhandedly, for example, by getting pledged delegates to flip, or by doing what’s suggested in this post. I don’t think this appeasement will work, but I think that is the intention. The GOP bosses are not stupid when it comes to practical politics. They know going after contraception is a loser, but they can’t afford to lose the fundies. You’ll notice all this started right after it became clear that Santorum is a contender.
OK, that makes a fair amount of sense. I don’t think it’ll work either, but it certainly resembles Romney’s tin ear at work there. The thing is, they’ve really painted themselves into a corner trying to out-fundie Santorum. They can’t afford to lose the fundie base, as you point out, but they also can’t afford to alienate the women voters in the general–and worse than that, the more time they spend beating the culture drum against women, the more firmly they fix the impression in women’s minds that the GOP is their enemy.
My guess is Romney will let go of the contraception/abortion issue as soon as he’s confident he’s got Santorum out of the way, and trust that the base will swing around to him eventually, realizing that he’s the only alternative left to a second Obama term. There’s almost certainly going to be at least some depressed turnout effect, but who knows. The GOP has planted so many seeds of Obama hatred that it may not really make a difference come November. Plus, last I saw polling on voter enthusiasm (about a month ago), Dems were still trailing the GOP by a significant amount.
Contraception is primarily a Catholic issue – it’s a secondary issue for Protestants (facilitating fornication) while it is a primary issue for Catholics (essentially murder). This issue came about with the Obama administration issuing the mandate right around the time Santorum became a serious contender, and Santorum is Catholic. While it is possible, I don’t think that’s coincidental – reproductive issues skew favorably towards the Democrats and Santorum was guaranteed to overreach on the issue, forcing Romney right on the issue as well. It’s a point where the Catholics and Protestants in the GOP could part ways since it’s not a hill upon which many Protestants are willing to fight and die while Catholics may well dig in their heels.
Point being: I believe they were maneuvered into this position by the Obama team, and quite skillfully at that.
All good points. It’s hard to gauge how these things are going, not being physically in the US to hear the everyday talk. I keep thinking of Huckabee saying “We’re all Catholics now,” and wondering if that’s taken hold to any significant degree.
None. It’s like folks saying “We’re all Irish” – only on March 17th and only pertaining to wearing green and drinking (not like the Irish are the only ones to drink or wear green). Bring up anything Gaelic and the sheep are separated from the goats…
While the Protestants don’t make much of contraception per se, they are the ones who’ve been pushing these “life begins at conception” laws. Those logically and legally rule out birth control pills as well, as the pills do not, strictly speaking, prevent conception. They stop the fertilized egg from implanting, so it dies. IUDs too. There is a difference with the Catholic view, which is that contraception per se (except, for some reason, rhythm) is bad. In practical terms, that means strict Catholics would also oppose condoms and Protestants wouldn’t. But as long as we’re talking the pill, they end up in the same place. FWIW, this is why I think Rachel Maddow is wrong to say Romney and Santorum are the same on this issue. Romney has endorsed personhood at conception, which implies opposition to birth control pills, but Santorum seems from his rhetoric to endorse the official Catholic position, which also rules out condoms, diaphragms, etc.
Report: Backroom Deal Kept Romney On Illinois Ballot
Pema Levy March 18, 2012, 7:09 PM
The scale of the problems that led the Romney campaign to drop challenges to Rick Santorum’s petitions in Illinois and allow him to appear on the ballot became clearer this week, according to a report from the Daily Herald of Arlington Heights.
Last week, BuzzFeed reported that the Romney campaign dropped challenges to Santorum’s signature petitions in several Illinois counties even when he lacked the requisite number of signatures, basically allowing him to appear on the ballot in almost every part of the state. The strange decision, BuzzFeed noted, appeared to have come from Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford, who officially withdrew the challenges. Rutherford offered basically no explanation, telling BuzzFeed, “We decided to be spirited and let it go.”
Now it appears there’s more to the story. Rutherford, who was responsible for collecting signatures for Mitt Romney, made two crucial errors that led to a deal between the two campaigns. Not only did he struggle to get enough signatures for Romney, but he had the signatures notarized out of state, an error that could have prevented Romney from appearing on the ballot at all. The Romney campaign had to send paid staffers to collect signatures in Illinois to get Romney on the ballot, according to Politico.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/romney-santorum-deal-allowed-both-to-appear-on-illinois-ba
llot.php?ref=skyboxes
wow!
Things are certainly getting pretty heated in the primaries. this is from a few days back but still
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/raucous-gop-caucus-in-st-peters-is-shut-down/ar
ticle_a8eb35ec-7050-11e1-acac-0019bb30f31a.html
There are 2 accounds of the Paul guys that were arrested that basicly alledge that the leadership of the meeting basicly reneged on a deal to allow Ron paul people to chair the meeting. Its from the daily paul of course so “ITS ALL A COMSPIRICY AGAINST PAAAUL!!” but in combination with this other stuff stuff it actually has something of a ring of truth
http://www.dailypaul.com/221346/this-is-brent-stafford-from-missouri
http://www.dailypaul.com/221418/im-the-camera-man