Let’s stipulate, for the sake of argument, that there really is a voter in the actual world who is agnostic about which party he or she prefers but is really, really concerned about the federal debt. This is the prototypical swing-voter that Third Way is always yammering about. We have to appeal to this voter. Now, what would this agnostic voter think if they learned this about Mitt Romney’s tax plans:
Regarding taxes, Romney said, “I’m going to probably eliminate for high income people the second home mortgage deduction.” He also said that he would “likely eliminate deductions for state income and property taxes.” The campaign is already attempting to walk the comments back, with a Romney adviser telling CNN, “He was tossing ideas out, not unveiling policy.”
For starters, Romney’s tax ideas, while reasonable, would raise nowhere near enough money to offset the huge tax cuts that he has in mind. Those tax cuts would increase the deficit by $900 billion in 2015 alone. Meanwhile, eliminating the deduction for state and local taxes, one of the largest tax expenditures for the government, for everyone saves $72 billion per year, and saves far less if the elimination is limited to upper-income Americans.
Romney is proposing adding trillions of dollars in debt. He isn’t saying that this is what he wants to do, but that is what the math tells us will be the logical result of his tax policies. This shouldn’t surprise a student of history because two out of the last three Republican presidents enacted huge tax cuts that resulted in trillions of dollars in debt. Romney is just following in the shoes of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
If our agnostic voter was faced with this information, I imagine he or she would become quite alarmed. They’d probably want to know if what Obama is proposing is better or worse.
Let’s take a look:
President Barack Obama unveiled a $3.8 trillion spending plan on Monday for 2013 that seeks to achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade but does little to restrain growth in the government’s huge health benefit programs, a major cause of future deficits.
Obama’s new budget was immediately attacked by Republicans as a retread of previously rejected ideas. The budget battle is likely to be a major component of the fall election campaign.
The president would achieve $1.5 trillion of the deficit reductions in tax increases on the wealthy and by removing certain corporate tax breaks. Obama rejected GOP charges of class warfare. In his budget message, he said, “This is not about class warfare. This is about the nation’s welfare.”
So, Obama plans to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade while Romney’s proposal would add nearly a trillion dollars in debt in 2015 alone.
I think our agnostic voter might be a little discouraged about the prospects of getting our debt under control under either scenario, but at least one candidate is trying to make things better, while the Republican is trying to make things worse.
But if you don’t really give a crap about the deficit and your main concern is that you have been Taxed Enough Already, then you will probably prefer Romney.
I cannot conceive why Democrats are so stupid. Let the Bush tax cuts expire and then pass the Obama middle tax cuts and reform.
Because the Republicans control the House, Obama’s Middle Class tax cuts will never be passed. The choice is between Clinton’s tax rates and Bush’s tax rates.
BTW, I vote for Clinton’s. It’s a little more on the Middle Class, but Bush’s tax rates require gutting the Great Society and Romney’s tax cuts require gutting the New Deal as well.
It’s not just “a little bit,” it’s two grand for the median income taxpayer. Plus another $800-1000 on top of that for the expiration of the payroll tax cut.
Let me know if the median income is set to grow by $3000 to compensate any time soon, and then we’ll see just how much politicians are really willing to reenact Clinton era tax rates on the middle class in this current economic environment.
Unless there’s an epic, EPIC landslide this November, all congressional factions and the White House will go into the lame duck session with proverbial guns against their heads. It will be ugly. History says that the scenario bodes well for President Obama’s prerogatives and his ability to mitigate economic damage, and that it bodes poorly for the psychotic teabagger cult. History also says it is extremely unlikely the Bush tax cuts are just allowed to expire wholesale without amendment.
The payroll tax cut was supposed to be a temporary stimulus, unless you are willing to cut SS/Medicaid to compensate for the permanent funding cut.
$2K for the median income is only 4%. Personally, I did fine under Clinton and barely noticed Bush’s tax cuts. Part of my income became taxed at 10% instead of 15%. You say this $40 a week? OK, I’ll accept that. It’s not worth throwing away the poor. It’s like the biblical story of Esau selling his birthright for a meal.
Ending the payroll tax cut paradoxically makes simultaneously fucking with the middle class’ income tax levels more difficult, not less.
If you really think Obama’s Christmas gift to the nation upon his reelection will be an across-the-board tax hike and a trillion dollars of spending freezes/hikes that congress isn’t actually prepared to realize, you’re just another deficit fetishist trying to pretend politics no longer exist.
Fucking with the middle class is easy, almost routine. Fucking with the 1% is much harder, almost impossible.
So your prediction is Obama is reelected and continues, maybe expands, the Bush tax cuts. Possible, very possible.
He can do what he wants as a lame duck, never again accountable to the public. Which is my argument against term limits.
BTW, I’d much rather have a job and/or pension than a trivial tax cut. Very few of the people I work with even noticed the payroll tax cut. We noticed a lot more that the cafeteria raised the lunch price from $5 to $5.50 (now $6.50).
I don’t think Republicans will control the House next year.
Joe, I took his comment to be in the present tense.
He wrote “…will never be passed.”
I’m saying, they could be passed after January 2012.
No, he didn’t. Here is the entire post:
That’s the post I responded to originally, not it’s parent.
They will in the lame duck session and thats when The Bush tax cuts have to be extended or dropped.
I agree. Obama has definitively won the fight over who is more “reasonable” and “willing to compromise,” and who is obstructionist. If there is a deadlock over extending the middle-class tax cuts like there was in 2010, the Republicans will get blamed for it. Especially if Obama is winning the election, the Democrats will be in an excellent position to call the Republicans bluff when they threaten to let the entire tax-cut package lapse.
Keep quoting Romney, I think that will be the defining way to attack him in this election. There’s a lot of good material in there.