According to the WMUR Granite State poll, Romney’s campaign in New Hampshire has utterly collapsed. Obama leads with independents 47%-29% and he has a 27% advantage with women. Add that up and Obama leads 52%-37% overall and 54%-39% once you push leaners. It seems almost certain that Obama will top 55% in the state, while Romney will struggle to top 40%. That means we will almost certainly win both House seats in the state. The Democrats have a 12% advantage in motivation, too, which shows that it has been important to hammer home the fact that Romney is going to lose. The New Hampshire GOP has received the message and they no longer give a shit.
This is how a campaign crumbles. Remember, I compared it to arm-wrestling. It can look competitive for a long time, but ultimately one side is stronger and the victory can be sudden and jarring. Pollsters were seeing an enthusiasm gap that favored Republicans all year long, and their likely voter models reflected that. But the enthusiasm gap has been closed, or even reversed in some places. That’s why the GOP has launched this absurd campaign about unskewed polls. They can’t let their troops realize the game is over or the floor will fall out below them. And, in New Hampshire, it already has.
Winning:
Even Satchmo had a tear in his eye watching that one.
beautiful
Wow. New Hampshire is historically the bellweather of the true independent, to the degree that such a beast still exists. Ok, demographics change and everywhere in the Northeast the trend away from the GOP is evident as the GOP has become increasingly centered on the racist south. But even so – 15 points. Holy crap.
I saw on TPM today that GOP consultants are complaining that independents don’t believe the bullshit, out-of-context quotes of Obama that Romney is running with (“you didn’t build that”, “few bumps in the road”) but do believe the verbatim quotes of Romney that Obama is running with about the 47%. They thinks it’s unfair. I am thrilled – it means that the tidal wave of Citizens United advertising for Romney is having no effect on the target audience. And this New Hampshire poll fits that interpretation to a T.
Oh, I think Citizens United is having an effect, just not what the Repugs intended. You know that obnoxious guy with the loud voice in the line at Wally World who goes on and on about what’s wrong with the store or the management or the staff and why the lines are so long? After while you just want to tell him to shut the fuck up.
I hope that is the case – and it seems to be.
But in the back of my mind I remember this one anecdote from 1988. A TV reporter was interviewing people on the street and one woman complained about how negative the campaign had become. When asked who she’d vote for she said Bush, because she’d heard less negative stuff about him. Total dimwit.
Citizens United allowed one Romney opponent after another to stay alive in the primary campaign. Gingrich had his billionaire, Santorum had his, Ron Paul had his.
Without the CU decision, Romney would have wrapped up that nomination by March.
All of Obama’s mature and conciliatory behavior toward Republicans in the face of their provocation, which was sometimes painful to watch? It’s paying off now.
I have been seeing the graphs on Nate Silver’s blog widen for a few weeks now. I expect more widening in the coming weeks as some GOP likely voters turn unlikely.
When does the rest of the country see the Romney 47% comments and the other niceties in that fundraising dinner? When do Southern white men see that Romney is selling them out?
89% of the country has actually seen a portion of the 47% video. That’s amazing right there.
C’mon, Tarheel. You know that the southern white males you speak of APPROVE of what he said.
Erik Erikson channeled each and every one of them when he said “this is the candidate we need!!!”.
The thing is, you’re both right.
Southern white males approve of what he said AND he’s selling them out.
I wish I knew what to do about this.
I think there are enough who would be offended with the context in which that comment comes. There is a “this is how we are going to manipulate the rubes” air about the talk.
Wow! It looks like Gov. Romney’s $10 million dollar estate, where he summers in New Hampshire, isn’t going to help him with the voters next month. Romney has had or still has a physical presence in many states: Michigan, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, California, & Utah. I think he can count on Utah’s 6 electoral votes, anyway. However, I remain cautiously optimistic, as my user name reflects.
At this rate, Obama might want to schedule a campaign event in Utah, just to freak out Willard.
Get John Huntsman and Harry Reid to join him on stage.
Wow. In all my private little interactive-map efforts, I generally left NH as a toss-up, from personal experience. But Nate Silver has now colored it in, too.
Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are gone. Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Iowa look done, too. North Carolina up next? Then all BHO loses from last time is Indiana.
Maybe it’s time to mess with their brains in Arizona?
Texas. Have Obama campaign in Texas. It would be like that Tokyo bombing mission in WW2 – the early one where the volunteers for the mission had to parachute into China. Militarily it was pointless but it sent a message. The wingnuts would go into total freak-out mode (not that we could tell the difference).
“Remember, I compared it to arm-wrestling. It can look competitive for a long time, but ultimately one side is stronger and the victory can be sudden and jarring.”
That’s what happened in Libya.
Good point.
High praise.
In the primaries, Mitt Romney was Nathan Jones. In the general he was Nathan Jones.
I was reading somewhere that polls usually tighten as the election approaches. That strikes me as plausible as a rule of thumb, but it seems like a secondary dynamic is also common and that’s the one you describe here. A candidate becomes so ineffectual that the floor falls out and then it’s just a question of where the new bottom is or when the election takes place. I’ve felt for a long time that Romney was in danger of being romped in Mondale-like proportions in terms of vote share if not in the Electoral College, simply because even his base doesn’t like him. If Romney comes off like a dick in the debates, the lead will expand to double digits, and there is no saying where it might stop. The big question I have is whether it will drive GOP turnout down sufficiently that Dems take everything from House to Dog Catcher.
The media has a vested interest in saying that polls tighten as election day approaches. Close races drive revenue and they try to tighten the polls with their coverage as much as possible.
In wave elections, polls diverge instead of tighten.
It is very possible that this might be the wave election that Democrats have been seeking. Because as the Romney campaign collapses, the GOP turnout drops and collapses downticket races.
But that means that Democrats are going to have to work against the complacency that a blowout election brings. And not being able to do that would tighten the polls before election day.
Fortunately, the Dems have a long way to go to make the House look safe–I don’t see people getting complacent until that happens. What might happen, however, is Obama losing a few additional points to Jill Stein.
Losing points to Jill Stein is significant only where those points come from. If it is a state that is +20 Obama, it is less significant than if it is a state that is +2 Obama. Taking a state that is +5 Romney would actually be helpful to Obama’s governing from a more progressive position.
Spot on. No matter how poorly Romney does, no matter how offensive Congressional Republican candidates are – and both those things will continue to damage their poll numbers – rank-and-file Dem GOTV remains a key factor. Whether we have a good night or a great night in November depends really and truly depends on us.
“But that means that Democrats are going to have to work against the complacency that a blowout election brings.”
Spot on. And what this evokes for me is that the older, more routine voters are on the R side of the contest and the Repubs still have a good lock on most of the South. One has to go back to Johnson-Goldwater in 64 to find a really big blowout for Dems. A blowout is harder for Dems to pull off due to this demographic.
On the other hand, in the post WWII era the Republicans have had numerous blowouts.
It’s not just the media – I see Plouffe was out last weekend predicting the polls were going to get closer. I suspect that Obama’s team is carefully balancing promoting the feeling of inevitability – so that their side has confidence – with counteracting the feeling of complacency.
I remember at 6 pm on Election Day 2008 getting a panicked call from our Precinct leader asking me to come back and man the phone bank calling voters (I’d been doing door-to-door most of the day) because they got word Colorado was going to be close and they needed every vote. I did so, despite a minor child crisis at home, only to find that Colorado was called for Obama as soon as the polls closed. That seems to be how Obama’s team works. For the record – everyone I reached on the phone during that period told me they’d already voted that day for Obama (duh).
Running up the popular vote is not a bad tactic to frame a position for governing.
Seeme like this was a 4 pt race as recently as two weeks ago. In other words, is this poll worth a shit?
If I’m not mistaken, this polling organization is the most credible for N.H. Kinda like the Des Moines Register in Iowa. When I saw these numbers earlier tonight I thought “whoah.”
Thanks, that’s great news, but I’m still skeptical.
I think Clinton is supposed to be heading up there later this week ?
Don’t get me wrong, I’d like it to be true, but it seemed so close there up until very recently. This would be an epic collapse.
If this is their first poll in a while, then there might be some sort of weirdness. Wait to see if other pollsters find the same thing.
Also wow. If he’s blowing away Romney that bad with women, what are the numbers with men? That must be Romney’s core.
So I read the NYMag’s long piece on Romney in his days as Mormon leader in Boston, and wow. I find the description of Romney back then kind of terrifying. He seems so utterly empty and then when he is filled by some outside force totally hews to it until a new outside force fills him.
That is… bizarre. He definitely does not seem quite like a person.
Our local newspaper ran a NYT article about how Romney is changing his ad tactics and pulling away from the economy theme. Here in Ohio, which has been a key state, our economy has actually improved, and so that plus the fact that Mitt would have let our auto industry tank makes our voters pretty skeptical of Mitt’s plans to do anything to help us.
But if Mitt starts flailing around with random attacks on our military preparedness or our relationships with the Middle East, or health care, his message will be so watered down that voters, who at this stage of the game are sick to death of campaign ads, will not care what he has to say.
The 47% video broke that camel’s back. It took that video off the blogger’s pages and made it available to anyone with a TV.
To points:
The ballots Americans cast have to be counted. Republicans have their ways.
An Obama mandate is nothing without the Senate and House too.
RealClearPoltics charts showes a Romney uptick of 1.3% (closing the gap) and an Obama drop in approval/disapproval rating of +3.2% to naught.
All polls are false.
They are inaccurate. They do not reach enough people to be accurate, and they often do not reach certain segments of the electorate.
They are also often purposefully skewed by the samples chosen. Pollsters have to please their clients, just as do politicians and hairdressers.
Some polling companies are outright owned…by the DemRats, by the Ratpiubs, by various media groups, by the PermaGov itself or its Keystone Kops, the CIA.
The networks and other media have a vested interest in keeping the contest close. There’s more money to be made in a close fight, don’tcha know. But they also have a stake in the outcome. A PermaGov stake, self-inerest in terms of who would do more for them in office and also who is favored by their corporate owners and advertisers. Pity the poor hustlers…it’s complicated, sustaining a set of trillion dollar lies.
So…ignore it all.
The fix is in…that much is obvious and has been obvious since the Rombot was elevated to permanent frontrunner status during the early primaries. A more perfect designated loser could not have been created. Gingrich would have been dangerous on sheer political talent; Paul would have been dangerous on every level and the rest of those turkeys were simply too obviously batshit stupid crazy.
It is probably not in the PermaGov’s best interests to let Obama have control of the Senate, though. He might turn on ’em.
Watch.
Bet on it if you have any spare change.
Bet on it.
AG
The polling models predict control of the Senate but not filibuster-proof control of the Senate. That seems to be a good way for the PtB to hide their hand. (Especially since they own a fair number of Democratic Senators.)
About your sig line, AG.
What is the lesser of n evils? Still evil? Or is there a boundary condition between good and evil? Which candidates are on which side of that line if there is?
PtB ?
“PtB” = the powers that be.
Thank you!
Oh.
“PtB”
I thought it might mean Post-traumatic Bullshit.
You…when something truly awful happens like the totally illegal and falsely justified invasion of iraq or the collapse of the U.S. economy and then afterwards our so-called “new” leaders throw out line after line of bullshit rather than try the real culprits in a court of law?
Like dat.
I looked up the term “Post-traumatic Bullshitter” in the dictionary.
Guess whose picture I found.
Yup.
The dictionary provided a reference as well.
Like dat, too.
Talk about yer prescience!!!
Obama wasn’t even in the Illinois legislature in 1996, but he already had his hustle act together even then.
And now he’s going for the big hustle.
All the marbles.
A second term.
Peace in our time!!! (Or at least that’s what the media will claim. Them drone murders are so hard to prove.)
Bet on it.
Watch.
Later…
AG
I think you need to factor in where those results are coming from, though. It just so happens that most of the recent poll results are from outfits that have given Romney some of his better figures throughout the cycle. So, naturally the RCP average will show tightening when those polls are released. Wih the exception of CNN’s most recent poll, I don’t think there has been much difference between the most recent poll and the second most recent poll of any other polling outfits.
It’s less than eight hours after you posted, and clicking on your links brings me to charts that make your statements out of date already.
There is a lot of noise in polls. Not every little wiggle means something.
OH MY GOD! Blowouts have consequences. collateral Damage abounds. Has anybody seen this yet?
http://hillbuzz.org/will-there-be-professional-consequences-for-the-tokyo-rose-act-erik-erikson-is-d
oing-at-redstate-com-14436
Talk about eating your own. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
I’m lovin’ it.
http://angryblackladychronicles.com/2012/10/01/wingnuts-convinced-grover-norquist-is-working-with-th
e-muslim-brotherhood/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=wingnuts-convinced-grover-n
orquist-is-working-with-the-muslim-brotherhood
With any luck Chris Christie will be right. Thursday morning the pundits will have said Wed was was a game changer. It changed the game from lean to game over.
Fingers and paws crossed in this household.
After all the grief the pundits and GOP gave Gore for not carrying his home state of TN don’t ever let them forget that Mitt failed to carry the three states in which he owns a residence (CA, MA, NH) and the state he’s from that elected his father governor three times: 1962, 1964, and 1966.
Just reading Taibbi on Bain and Mitt, – probably y’all saw it already, but just in case.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capi
tal-20120829
We have been working really hard in NH and I did notice a big change in my calling after the 47% video.