A few days ago in Politico, one of Romney’s “closest advisers” was quoted as saying, “We’re going to win. Seriously, 305 electoral votes.”
Sorry, but this is Rovian bluffing. Romney’s campaign is desperately trying to create an air of “inevitability” about the (non-existent) “momentum” that has Romney “playing offense all over the map”.
Here’s how you can tell. Go to www.270towin.com or any other website that has an electoral map calculator. Take the nine remaining swing states (CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI) and add them to the 23 states and 191 electoral votes Romney already has locked up. The total is 301 electoral votes. The only way Romney gets to 305 is if, in addition to winning all nine swing states—five of which currently have Obama ahead in the polls—he also wins Hawaii, Maine or Rhode Island.
At this late date, a presidential candidate’s “closest advisers” know the electoral college map like the back of their own hands. Telling a reporter, “Seriously, 305 electoral votes.” when Romney is losing Maine by an average of 17 points in the latest polls is seriously ridiculous.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
The only fitting response to such puffery:
But can he get to 269? Which is all he needs to win.
It could happen – and certainly Rachel Maddow has discussed what would go down under such a scenario (as have, no doubt, others). At the moment, it doesn’t seem very probable. I won’t bet the farm on it.
Sure he can get to 269, or 270, or more.
But if Obama wins Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, he wins.
If Obama wins Virginia, New Hampshire and Ohio, he wins.
If Obama wins Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire and Nevada, he wins.
In short, if Obama keeps the narrow (but mostly long-lasting) leads he has in several states, then he gets re-elected.
Can Obama win Nevada twice? Rolling the dice double or nothing?
Seriously Obama needs Ohio and should have it but Bain Capital is counting the votes!
Oops! (Blush.)
Should have been Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
I see a hypothetical that gets to exactly 305 for Romney, without any enormous improbabilities.
Romney wins Florida, NC, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
Obama wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, Iowa.
Could happen, though it means Romney would be a lot stronger in Midwest than polls currently are pegging him.
Ok! Start at 270win with the default. Throw Iowa, Michigan, Ohio (stolen), Pennsylvania (Sandy), Virginia (stolen in the North,racists in the South and West), and North Carolina (voter suppression) to Roney and he has 274.
Sorry. Romney doesn’t need NC for 274 in the above scenario.