I don’t know about Sarah Palin running for president in 2016. I suppose she could. It’s a bit early to be making predictions about what will happen four years from now, particularly with so much upheaval around the globe and climate change, etc. Yet, right now, I’d feel pretty confident about predicting that there will be a strong third-party challenge from the right. I think someone with billions of dollars, or access to billions of dollars, will get fed up with the GOP and make a vanity run reminiscent in many ways of H. Ross Perot’s 1992 kamikaze campaign. It could be someone like Michael Bloomberg who wants to be a radical gun-control centrist pro-business pro-climate control pro-empire Republican. Or, it could be an empty vessel to carry the water of the lunatic right.
As things stand right now, I cannot see the right coalescing around one candidacy in 2016. Their party has become too regional, too religious, too white, and too FOXified. One person cannot contain all their crazy.
The thing I find most interesting is if the religious fundies and other assorted GOP lunatics will back them. They hold so much sway at the lower levels of the GOP that a properly moderate GOP nominee coupled with a real conservative ™ firebreather indie might convince them to jump ship. That scenario is about the only way I can see one of the major parties dying. The infrastructure that supports it reforms or decamps to become another party.
Palin’s day has passed. She’s a marginal player from here on out.
She’s the answer to a trivia question. She’s gone, in four short years, from being Dan Quayle with tits, to being Dan Quayle with tits.
I think some in the GOP will feel the time has become safe to try to seem reasonable, interested in actual governing, and unwilling to say they hate anyone.
They will lose.
They may get the party nomination but they will lose.
They will lose because I think it is most likely that a third party will spring up, possibly not very well funded but funded well enough to make a lot of noise for 2 years prior to the election, that will be a warm home of 18th century notions of state’s right, strict constitutional powers, gun rights, white power, and anti-intellectualism/anti-science. That group will never give up until their guns are pried from their hands to fit them in their coffins.
I think some in the GOP will feel the time has become safe to try to seem reasonable, interested in actual governing, and unwilling to say they hate anyone.
Romney coulda been that guy. He had the record for it, but he just couldn’t stand to let the nuttier primary candidates get even a temporary edge on him.
This makes even more sense after Rove’s disastrous spending spree during this campaign. the billionaires are going to want more control over their money.
Problem is, the billionaires are also smart enough to understand the concept of a split vote and what it means for their access to power. So it’s likely the koch’s will still hitch themselves to the GOP. But I would imagine at least one conservative billionaire – maybe one of these junk food morons – will pull the trigger for a third party. The ego trip alone would be too tempting.
Yeah, that’s about right.
But don’t give the billionaires too much credit for smarts. Plenty of them can’t even do simple math.
Just yesterday, the world richest descended on Austin, TX for the debut USA Formula One race. Texas’ VIPs came out in force.
Alex Webber tweeted that he was asked by some Texas Yahoo at a VIP dinner where he was from. “New Zealand” he replied to which he was complimented, “WOW your English is amazing.”
Yep, they have all they want and smarter people are eating cat food.
For those who don’t know Webber is the #2 driver on the #1 team in Formula One and has been world famous for about 10+ years.
Some Polish-sounding dude won NASCAR. I had never heard of him.
Kazlowski. He is from Michigan. A bit of an underdog. Promptly got very drunk on his sponsor’s Miller Lite and did interviews all evening. Some pretty hilarious and now viral.
It amazes me that anyone believes the conservative elite ever, ever, ever watch nascar.
Alex Webber? It’s Mark!!!!!!!!!!
Doy! :/
As things stand right now, I cannot see the right coalescing around one candidacy in 2016. Their party has become too regional, too religious, too white, and too FOXified. One person cannot contain all their crazy.
As things stood on New Year’s Eve 2010, could you see the right coalescing around Multiple Choice Mitt?
There’s nothing like a hanging to concentrate the mind.
What did I think back then? I don’t even remember.
Does anyone think on New Year’s Eve?
I’d had this conversation quite a long time ago with a friend, and the basic consensus was that Mittens was the GOP Establishment’s candidate, and that historically the Establishment’s candidate got the nomination once all the dust had settled. Personally I would have been a bit surprised if he had not received the nomination – and that is with the usual caveat that it was a given that Mittens was an underwhelming candidate.
I suppose the question becomes, who would the Establishment want for 2016? I don’t know if that is clear right now, but I suspect that by 2014 it should be pretty apparent.
Who they want is someone like GWB that has the fundie base in his pocket and is therefore free to spend the entire campaign espousing compassionate responsibility. Crispy Creme fits the bill and the GOP is dumb enough to think that Marco at the bottom of the ticket will satisfy Latinos.
The usual line is that Romney was “pandering” to the right. It’s possible that he had no choice, that had he tried to be more reasonable they would have bolted during the 2012 campaign. Before the primary debates I saw that as a possible scenario if he didn’t toe the line.
I don’t see how Bloomberg would be a challenge from the right. Plus he’s from Great Satanlandt, so wouldn’t have a chance with the crazyists even if he tried to lurch right. Not so sure Perot was a challenge from the right either.
Also don’t see where they couldn’t find a perfect embodiment of their um, unique perspectives. Ryan, Beck, the high god itself Limbaugh, Trump, Rove, Pam Geller, the list goes on and on.
Right, Bloomberg killed himself with the Tea Party by banning 32 ounce Slurpies. I’m not joking. I’m serious. They see him as a Librul masquerading as a Republican. And, yes, they hate NYC and basically the whole Northeast.
Bloomberg would not be after tea party members if he split off. He would be after wall street types, establishment republicans, and ‘moderates’. He would leave the tea party types behind, which would accomplish the same thing as the tea party being the ones that split off.
Of course none of the above will happen. There will be no split off, and the republicans will nominate the hardest establishment guy in the race. When haven’t they in the last fifty years?
Nixon
Ford
Reagan
Bush1
Dole
Bush2
McCain
Romney
They nominate them because they bring the money in, and the crazies rally around the guy. Has the last two years already been forgotten?
.
Then Bloomberg would be attacking from the Center, not the Right.
I think the concern is for a Ron/Rand Paul, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee to split like the Dixiecrats did.
IMHO, Bloomberg could never make it through the primaries. Chris Christie might not because he said something nice once about the AntiChrist (Obama). Bloomberg might do better to switch parties and join the DLC. Petraeus worked for the AntiChrist like Huntsman, so he’s out. They would have to get someone from the business world like Jamie Dimon, or Carly Fiorina. I think Rubio has the best shot.
Santorum/Ryan or Ryan/Santorum – next in line…
Only if those two split from the GOP and run on the Vatican party ticket.
Santorum will have been out of office for ten years by then and we just saw how well it works to run a candidate absent from public office for six years.
Oh please, can we please not waste any time whatsoever going forward on the cretinous Sarah Palin?
In the past presidential contest, she made no efforts whatsoever to set up an actual presidential campaign.
She is uneducated, uneducable, and a complete moron.
Can we please not waste time on a fake candidate who will never ever take the steps necessary to be an actual candidate?
It is long past time for this buffoon to disappear from the national radar.
you pretty much missed my point.
I’m looking at the “deep bench” of Republicanism today (you can tell I’m bipartisan because I spell out Republicanism instead of ReThuglicans or ReTealibans or other). I’m not impressed.
Chris (Fuck You, anyway) Christie: In NJ, which, I will remind you, voted in Frank (Methuslah) Lautenberg when Senator (I took more in bribes than last 3 NY mayors combined) Torricelli was indicted for various crimes. There are Mafia bosses that were charged and convicted of lesser offenses than the Torch. Hell, there are mob bosses who have DONE less than Frankie. Capture NJ, NY, MA, VT, CT, RI??? Is the Pope a bear in the woods?
Bobby (I’ve been a dork all my Life) Jindal: This dumass is from LOUISIANA. In case you don’t know this, this is the single most corrupt political construct in the NATION. Bar None. except maybe for Memphis. There is NO WAY he is clean. And it will come out. Trust me, the Cajuns hate everyone … separetly but equally. I got land SE of NO … I know.
DeMint: South Carolina. Need I say more?
John Thune: South Dakota. See DeMint, only no one can pronounce his name.
Jeb Bush: His wife has him wrapped around her little finger. She isn’t going to go on the campaign trail.
I don’t see any of the currently viable candidates on the Republican (see? My bipartisanship is showing again) for real as 2016 Presidential candidates. VP? Absolutely!!! Any one of them.
Nope. the next Great Republican Hope is currently unknown. And it isn’t Ayotte, either
I still think it’s going to be Jeb Bush. I thought that he would have gotten the nomination if he’d run in 2012 and still think so.
First, let us understand that Reagan and GWB had two important and distinct attributes that appealed to different GOP factions. First, for the “base”, the extreme conservatives knew RWR and GWB were “one of them” so they could spend the majority of their campaigns pretending to be more centrist. Second, for the GOP owners, both RWR and GWB were extremely mallable. Both preferred getting short summaries (half page for RWR, verbal for GWB as even reading half a page was too hard for him) of any major issue so of course the person who summarized the issue was in actuality the decider.
Jeb is the only candidate who fits that bill. He’s considered a bona fide wingnut by the base but will be able to play the centrist card for the media. He’ll be a willing puppet to the owners.
I know, I know, you’ll tell me that GWB ruined the Bush name. In fact that did probably prevent Jeb from running in 2012 … but memories dim and by 2016 the taint on the name will be gone. And do remember that although a lot of wingnut bloggers bitched about Bush’s deficit spending AFTER the 2008 election, the base actually thinks Bush got a raw deal in the media. They completely believe, as firmly as they know evolution is a lie, that the 2008 crash was caused by Barney Frank forcing those hapless bankers to issue mortgages to dark skinned takers who live off the government. The deficit bitching was just thrown out there as a way to explain their 2008 election loss (“we weren’t conservative enough”) but deep down they don’t actually blame that on Bush either, but on evil Pelosi.
Jeb Bush in 2016. The problem is they have no bench. Consider what their options were if Romney had bowed out a year ago due to health problems – nothing but sheer insanity. Ditto for 2016.
DeMint is another of the milquetoast, negative charisma GOP guys. Like Rmoney, Bill Frist, and Pawlenty.