If you have ever flushed a bug down the toilet, you know that the bug never had a chance. The power of the water overwhelmed their ability to cling to the bowl and crawl their way out. But, if you have ever tried to flush a bug down the bathroom sink, you may have discovered that the power of the faucet was inadequate to the job. If the Republican Party is the bug, the question is, are they in the toilet or are they in the sink?
It’s interesting that Chris Cillizza attributes the Republicans’ bad Election Night almost exclusively to demographic change and a bad turnout operation. I think he should consider that talking about “legitimate” rape and 47% of the people being parasites could have had an impact. The lack of any positive message beyond tax cuts was kind of a problem. The hostility to blacks and Latinos and gays and college women who use contraception? Possibly not helpful. Thoroughly alienating the academic and scientific communities? Not exactly a vote-getter.
Mr. Cillizza provides us four reasons to believe that the Republicans aren’t in as bad shape as we might suspect. The first reason is that the GOP has a crop of “superstars” who are all coming of political age at the same time. The second reason is that (if the people who are projected to be superstars don’t pan out) the GOP may have some hidden gems in the historically-high 30 governor’s mansions they now control.
There is no question that the GOP has some fresh faces who will present a much more attractive slate of presidential candidates in 2016 than we saw in 2012. But let’s not get too excited. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie could become a forceful advocate for a new kind Republicanism that has more appeal to Northerners, but physical and ideological liabilities make him no more likely than Rudy Giuliani to win the GOP’s nomination. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal doesn’t set anyone’s heart aflutter. He reminds most people of the character Kenneth on 30 Rock. As for Latino candidates like Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, and Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, they all have a lot of appeal, just not to the nativist base of the Republican Party. And I can hardly believe that Mr. Cillizza mentions Indiana Gov.-Elect Mike Pence as an up-and-comer. The man is as dumb as a post.
The third reason Mr. Cillizza doesn’t think the Republican Party is doomed is because, while the Electoral College map looks pretty bleak, it looked bleaker for the Democrats in the 1970’s and 1980’s. All the Republicans have to do is win back the industrial Midwest and they are back in business. But that is not an easy task, and it might not even be true. Nevada is now as blue as Iowa and almost as blue as Minnesota. Will Florida become a reliably blue state? Isn’t Virginia becoming the new Maryland? How long before Arizona falls to the Dems? Can the Republicans defeat a white Democrat in North Carolina or Missouri? Aren’t the Republicans correct to fear the impact of ObamaCare on the political allegiances of the white working-class? It seems to me that the Republicans can only fix their Electoral College problem by winning over the entire industrial Midwest, including states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that they haven’t won in ages. How would they do that?
Mr. Cillizza’s fourth reason for Republican optimism is the simple pendulum effect. After eight to twelve years, Americans typically get sick of the party in power and give the other side a chance. Yet, this pendulum effect is less automatic than in might seem. The Democrats held the White House for 20 years before the people opted for Eisenhower. And Ike wasn’t exactly representative of his contemporaries or successors in the party. He came in to salvage the disaster in Korea, just as Nixon in a sense came in to salvage the disaster in Vietnam. Poppy Bush alienated his base by breaking his promise not to raise taxes and came up against one of the most gifted politicians in American history. He also got beaten down by the criticisms of H. Ross Perot and had the misfortune to face the electorate in a down economy. Similarly, John McCain faced a gifted politician and a great campaign in the midst of an economic meltdown.
There were real, tangible reasons that Americans changed the party controlling the White House in all these cases. They were tired of failure. A party that succeeds, doesn’t lose. The Democrats are on the cusp of building a coalition reminiscent of FDR’s New Deal coalition. All that is holding them back right now is the drag they are getting in white, rural districts. If Bill Clinton could run for Obama’s third-term and take the benefits of ObamaCare to the people, he might win 40 states. We’ll see if the actual Democratic nominee can do that well or not, but nothing Cillizza mentioned should give much comfort to conservatives that they can turn things around by doing more of the same with a new crop of candidates.
OK, this may be an important issue. There certainly are some “marquee” names.
Here’s the key test: If Chris Christie ran for POTUS, would he carry NJ in the general? Would he carry NY, MA, CT, PA, or RI? These are all neighboring states.
If the superstar theory is correct, then nominating Christie should have an effect. CHristie was elected in NJ. He would certainly make it close for POTUS. Let us arguably give him NJ as the “favorite son” effect. I do not see that leaching over into any neighboring state. Let’s call that the “bratty nephew” effect – you’ve seen him up close and specifically, and want NO PART of this repulsive toad. Certainly some of my nephews fall into that category. I think he’d carry NJ, but that’s not enough.
I don’t see the superstars having any effect.
The storm has given Gov. Christie a chance to show both a softer side and a more bipartisan image. He is probably pretty popular right now in New Jersey because people are banding together and they can see that the governor sincerely cares about the state and the suffering of its people.
If he sticks with his current image, he’ll have a good chance to be reelected next year. But the glow will wear off. If wore off with Giuliani. It will wear off with Christie.
Plus, the things that make him popular in New Jersey and among those hankering for bipartisanship, do not help him in a quest for the nomination.
Finally, he is simply too out of shape to be president. If he lost 200 lbs., he’d be in business.
Also with Christie, he did learn. Remember the snow storm and “I will not cheat my family of the long-planned Disneyworld trip”? At the same time, Corey Booker was walking from house to house, shoveling people out.
Not to mention, Christie’s encouragement of privatizing police forces. Really just union-busting in disguise, this is what is happening in NJ; “the dismantling of the Camden Police Department and the outsourcing of policing to a new, cheaper force run by the county government, to be called the Camden Metro Division.” Now we can have vulture capitalist law enforcement!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/19/chris-christie-camden-police_n_2025372.html
Union-busting of public-sector unions. Of course, in WI, that’s going on, and Walker has got the police and fire unions on his side, because they are a bunch of fascist whining morons.
When did the police/fire unions get on Walker’s side? They worked hard to get him recalled.
Here’s the key test: If Chris Christie ran for POTUS, would he carry NJ in the general? Would he carry NY, MA, CT, PA, or RI?
No, and no. Remember, Christie got elected in off-year elections. So turn-out was no where near what a presidential election would be. Also, too, the only way he’d win any of them would be because Democrats nominated a GOP-lite squish like Andrew Cuomo.
Haha, as if on cue, Sen. Marco Rubio just shows up at an IA GOP event (barf) and blabbers the same old braindead “conservative” garbage about tax cuts, Heroic Pluto…er, Job Creators, and demonic job killin’ regoolayshuns. And–news flash–minimum wage jobs (like his parents had) somehow don’t provide a “standard of living” for a family!! Whocoodaknowd?
Also, too, the age of the earth is unknown and subject to many “disputes among theologians” according to Marco in some recent interview. So scientific illiteracy and Christianist coddling was NOT one of the GOP’s problems in 2012, check!
In other words, old wine in a new (somewhat darker colored) bottle, haha. It’s (very) early, but maybe these “conservative” knuckleheads really never will learn! Incredible, but possibly true. “Yeah, let’s have a good lookin’ latino-type guy recite the same script! That can’t miss!!” I’d liken “conservatives” to the unfortunate DoDo, but that would be grossly unfair to that poor creature….
Republicans are sitting in30 governors mansions because for the most part those governors actually govern. Unlike their party members in Washington they think government has an actually legit role. If the next crop of national GOP leaders think that then they may have something.
And exit polling, as you’ve pointed out shows how deep the racism is in this country. The GOP can keep a home for those folks, but there is no reason for them to be so obvious about it.
Probably the biggest problem the GOP has is the conservative infotainment industry and it’s cast of clowns. Being reasonable and inclisive and offering actual government solutions doesn’t make for great ratings. Their idea of civil discourse is to put someone weakling like Alan Combs on and use him as a punching bag. It’s the equivalent of the Washington Generals to the Harlem Globetrotters. So long as they are the voice and face of conservatism with the profit motive and business model they have it will be hard for any conservative to be reasonable on the national stage.
How many of those governors elected in ’10 would get re-elected now? Scott, Kasich and Corbett could all get beat by a cardboard cut-out of Boo right now.
I hope Strickland runs against Kasich in 2014. He would clean his clock. As to MI, not sure, but many of the same issues.
Fascist teahaddist idiots in PA, MI, WI, OH, and IA need to be removed. Can we get a clean sweep?
Kasich has been desperately trying to re-burnish his image in the state. And he has had some success. Mostly by just lying low and not taking positions on things that the wacky GOP Reps have been pushing; like the personhood bill that has been revived. So not sure how deeply rooted his improved standing in the state. He’s mostly been touting the improved employment picture in the sate. That’s about the only thing he will talk about.
Scott Walker certainly.
In fact it seems that Minnesota and Wisconsin are very slowly going red (getting in sight of North Carolina type states). Certainly not more blue. I’m not entirely sure why but it’s happening.
How do you get the idea that WI is trending red? We’ve voted Dem in the past 7 presidential elections; in the 11 before that we went Republican 8 times. That seems like a pretty blue swing to me.
It’s hard to argue that the Governor’s office is trending red; we’ve often elected Republicans before (and Walker is unlikely to survive his next go around). Since Gaylord Nelson in 1959 we’ve had 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.
Looking at Senate races, our Class 3 senator has alternated parties ever since John Blaine was elected in 1927 (incumbents notwithstanding). Our Class 1 senator has been Democratic since 1957, and we just voted in the first openly lesbian member of the Senate over someone who was a hugely popular governor (though his favorabilies had plummeted in the meantime).
You could argue that our congressional delegation (split 3-5 in favor of the R’s) points to a Republican lean, but prior to 2010 it was the reverse of this, and one can hardly argue that 2010 represents a partisan trend (for all that the Tea Party folks tried to claim exactly that at the time).
All in all, there’s not much to suggest that Wisconsin (which has always been pretty purple) is trending any one way or the other.
Legislature is certainly not D.
Good question. Prior to Sandy I serously doubt if Christie would be re-elected. He makes great you tube videos that the Right treats like porn, but he has NOT lowered property taxes or improved much of anything… yet.
But my point is of the 30 GOP governors most are not rabid States Rights types bent on eliminating as much government as possible.
Ironically, dudes like Walker in WI turn away money to run health care more at the local level and instead are kicking it back to the Feds. In the end, I think people in WI and the like will vote depending on how well services like healthcare are provided to them.
Geez, I thought the Repubs had all this overwhelming, self propelling Obama Hatred “enthusiasm” which dwarfed the dispirited Dems and would carry the Bishop onward to victory. Now we hear Willard had a bad turnout operation that cost him the election? I thought our hardworkin’ “conservative” Repubs always turned out? I can’t keep these stories straight, I guess.
As for blamin’ it all on Rio, er, demographics, well that wasn’t exactly some well kept national secret that Repubs somehow couldn’t uncover. The problem is that their vile base hates these new “demographics”, haha. And that the coaches of Team Conservative tacitly encouraged their players to ramp up and revel in that hatred—horrendous public bigotry became acceptable and “fun” again, thanks to our noble “conservative” movement. Just what a pluralistic nation needs.
And that was one of the reasons for the GOP defeat, IMO—their open delight in re-enabling racism and oh so clever race baiting was just too much for too many people. The “conservative” movement just isn’t decent any more. There are simply too many low grade turds in too many positions of influence, as well as loitering about the premises with “White Powr!” t-shirts. Decent people just don’t want to let these bigoted turds think they are back in power.
Of course, the braindead Do Nothing message of the “conservative” movement is also a big part of their failure, IMO. Their story of the Heroic Plutocrat Job Creators and their Magic Free Market has just gotten too stale and tiresome even for the hapless American rubes. At the bare minumum, an exciting new script has to be re-written by our Heroic Plutocrats, and I’m sure they have their people working on it.
The WH pendulum (if it exists) likely won’t swing back if Repubs keep presenting ever more reactionary extremism as their “solution” to “decline”. That is the strongest reason to suspect that Dems could keep on this WH roll….but don’t ever count the plutocrats out.
I’ve a hunch that the Republicans expect voters to throw the (Democratic) bums out in a future election no matter what they do or say. Likewise, when in office the GOP always wears out its welcome. If they’re going to get voted out anyway, they might as well be extreme. Better to be hanged for a sheep as for a goat.
Karen Hughes is railing on the stupidity of the rape remarks and how it impacted the college aged voters.
Women have been voted into leadership roles this season. They will be looking for equality to be included; yet the first signs of platform adjustment are coming in the form of Immigration reform and the Violence against Women is left to go cold.
Because it’s really a platform issue, bearing down on the failed messengers as they are doing is a waste. Build the platform, the leaders will come.
Until then, the GOP will find itself continuing to play catch up leaving no room for actual policy leadership.
Maybe. GOP won White women handily (8 points or something, IIRC) so that particularly part of it might be more attributable to crushing margins among minority women.
By then it will take somebody pretty good on our side and somebody not terribly good on theirs to persaude voters it’s not about time to throw out the ins just because they’ve been in so long.
Hillary has said she’s out.
Who’s in?
Here are the Republican two stages of grief:
Last week:
1) Dawning of the truth: “Holy Shit, did we really do that?”
Beyond:
2) Demented chest thumping: (Mandrake gestures hypnotically) “The American people are center-right folks who strongly believe in conservative principles and the Republican model of governance.”
We’re back baby, in all our glory, and we ain’t changing nothin’.
ok, maybe we take this big data thing more seriously, debug the software before we roll it out next time, and keep one eye on Nate Silver’s blog.
The big weakness on the Dem side is with the two obvious best candidates – Hillary has said she won’t run again, and Biden will be aged 70 tomorrow. I suspect independent and low information voters will be looking for “an exciting new face” in 2016, and the GOP tends to do marketing better than most Dems – having the MSM onside helps, of course. Obama won because he has absolutely exceptional talent, but his ilk don’t come around too often. Unfortunately 2016 is wide open – the GOP history pre 2013 will be airbrushed form history.
This has nothing to do with anything in this thread, but what the heck has happened to the troll(s) around here??? Seemed like you couldn’t spit in any direction in the month of October and not hit one between the eyes. They too busy still un-skewing polls?
Never fear. There’s one doing the libtard trope on the Stupid Republicans thread — cool how they come running like little doggies when their name is called.
I just saw that. I’m now sorry that I asked. I have to question the mind of anyone who uses such a juvenile term as “libtard”. I’m prejudiced, though. I have a cousin who uses that phrase all the time. And he’s pretty much a moron in every sense of the word.
they should be optimistic.
Globalization is significantly eroding the link between a worker’s contribution to a corporation and the pay they receive. This, coupled with increasing automation, is resulting in stagnating incomes for much of the middle class.
While Obama will do things that help around the margins, he does not have answer to this problem, in part because no answer exists in mainstream economics.
As a result the party out of power will always have a chance.
I think we need to remember that Rom was a terrible candidate with personality and ethical issues that made nobody like him. We can’t jump from this election to an assumption that the nativist/oligarch/racist/christianist big tent has fallen, or that their messages have lost their power for a large segment of the population.
The Dem victory buys us 2 and 4 year interludes to keep working on the ground to make progressive ideology attractive to workers and small businesses whose interests we reflect, but can’t seem to communicate with so far. We have great organizations like DFA, MoveOn, PFAW, and many more who have the people, some of the money, and the com tech to make an impact at ground level under the umbrella of a relatively benign government. If we just wait for the Dem Party to move credibly left, we’ll just learn yet again that we’ve hired the wrong contractor yet again.
The coming few years give us space to begin real change beyond party, but only if we take the lead.