The editors at the National Review are urging surrender. Total surrender. They say it would be “better to pass legislation extending the middle-class tax cuts and to allow the top rates to rise” than it would be to accept anything approaching what Tim Geithner offered them. After advising senators to keep their yaps shut about capitulation in order to avoid undermining the House’s negotiating position, they give up on linking the tax hikes to entitlement reform:
We have more sympathy for those Republicans who are urging the White House to show some leadership on restraining the growth of Medicare and Social Security — but they too are making a mistake. Republicans cannot politically sustain a public position of being willing to raise taxes on the rich only if popular benefits are cut. If they come across as being willing to shield the middle class from tax increases only if entitlements are cut, that position will hurt them still worse. Entitlement reform is a possible result of this deal only if Obama leads on it publicly. Since he does not seem inclined to do that, Republicans should stop expecting entitlement reform as a likely outcome of negotiations.
What they are saying is unambiguous. They want the House to pass an extension of the middle-class tax cuts without preserving the cuts for the top two percent, and without getting anything in return.
However, they recognize that the base must be appeased somewhat, so they have a proposed script for some Kabuki theatre:
House Republicans need to prepare for the possibility that taxes are indeed going to go up across the board and that Obama, the Democrats, and the media will blame them for it. Their first order of business should be to pass an extension of all the tax cuts. It may soon prove marginally helpful to be able to say that they passed a bill to block tax increases on the middle class, and are ready to do it again.
This part needs some translation. They want John Boehner to have the House pass an extension of all of the Bush tax cuts, including on the top two percent. The Republicans will then attempt to argue that they tried and failed to protect the middle class tax cuts. But this advice only makes sense if the Republicans don’t follow the editors first piece of advice, which was to give the president precisely what he wants. It’s not really about assigning blame after we go over the cliff. It’s about avoiding going over the cliff by capitulating, but making it look to the base like you made an honest attempt to stand on your principles.
With advice like this, I don’t see much fight left on the right.
Again: they’re. Right. Discretion is the better part of valor. The administration might well have overplayed its hand on the Geithner stunt. Surely some Republican fuckers have recognized that “Please proceed, Governor” is a gigantic, neon-sign flashing trap. Tactical retreat is the only move.
Joe, you are not correct.
Neither are you wrong.
The term Kabuki Theatre is appropriate.
THe current Republicans know only the nuclear option and burned earth. All else is effete sugar plum fairyism.
Maybe so but their allies are pushing for fairies.
Notice the sequence. Obama says he wants $1T in tax hikes. Boehner rejects it. Next meeting, Obama says he wants $1.4. Boehner rejects it. Third time Obama says now he wants $1.6T. Boehner says, “Your nuts!”.
Obama finally learned how to buy a used car.
In a two party negotiation, the winner is the guy that wants the deal least.
If we go over the cliff, the Republicans lose and need Obama and the Senate to get anything back. Obama wins and forces the Republicans in January to oppose middle-class tax cuts and spending (hint: ALL Congressmen want spending for their district). If they oppose, they look like Scrooge and loose support and they STILL have the Defense contractors badgering them to make a deal and get the contracts.
Boehner is going to have to throw in the whitewalls and four years of free maintenance. For a rock bottom price on the car.
As Billmon said on Twitter(yes, he joined!!), Obama channeled his inner Michael Corleone.
You mean his inner Luca Brasi, “Your signature or your brains on this paper.”
Obama finally learned how to buy a used car.
Obama hasn’t changed; it’s the conditions. He’s been this good at negotiating all along; he just has the strongest hand he’s ever held.
I think it’s a little of both. He’s in a more powerful position than he was in the spring and summer of 2011. But he’s also (I think) learned from his experiences over the past four years trying to negotiate deals with congressional Republicans.
Agreed.
Seems to me the Democrats are putting the Republicans into a nasty political trap. It’s pretty obvious the Republicans are going to lose on the upper class tax cuts and the longer they drag it out the more it will hurt them politically. So it is in their political interest to surrender and pass the Senate tax cut bill.
But – now Pelosi has put in a discharge petition demanding the House, well, pass the Senate bill. So, now the Republicans have to make an unconditional surrender to Nancy Pelosi, of all people, along with Obama. An unconditional surrender to the liberal San Fran Gran who has almost no power at present due to the House rules. That’s going to be excruciatingly painful for the bully party.
Due to internal politics in the Republican caucus, I’m not sure they can do it even once they realize they need to. Somebody will need to rally and whip their caucus. If Boehner does it, will he keep his Speakership? I can easily see the Repubs taking their frustrations out on him. He’d certainly take a lot of heat from the conservative media. And if he won’t, who will? I don’t think they’ll be able to get the leadership to take the fall for the benefit of the party.
This scenario still leaves defense and other cuts in place, as well as other elements of the sequester that are undesirable. The debt ceiling will need to be raised, and taking middle class tax cuts of the table does not avoid another standoff. Obama has several items left from his jobs program to pass. The GOP is not without some leverage here.
They really, really never anticipated that they would wake up on November 7 to another 4 years of Obama in the White House. There was no contingency at all for that happening. Everything they have done for the last 4 years has been predicated on the belief that the American public would overwhelmingly repudiate everything about this President on November 6, 2012.
They went “all in” and they lost. There is nothing they can do but try and salvage enough chips off the table to get cab fare to the airport. They know it. It’s just a matter of how much longer they want to stand at the political crap table and continue to roll the dice. The National Review knows it. Game over.
Smart maneuvering for smart policies. Addictive, eh Dems? Fingers crossed that this works because I want MORE!
MORE POPCORN FOR EVERYONE!!
My favorite part of the negotiation is forcing the GOP to specify what they will cut. Turns out ‘big government’ is pretty popular, and it’s much harder to actually govern and make hard choices.
Sucks to be them right now, but they deserve it.
Very true. Right now, many of them might be wishing they hadn’t gerrymandered the House districts. But for owning the House, they could just sit back and throw rocks. That’s what they’re good at. It’s all they’re good at and all they enjoy.
Saw Boehner spouting the same drunken bullshit today. I would really like to see the house Repugs give a sane counter proposal. I’m not feeling too confident. If they pass the existing bill we gain 80 billion in tax revenue. We need the Estate tax increase and the deduction cuts to get another 80 billion. Its a worry if they renew for the 98% then give nothing else and demand much more in cuts using the debt limit and our country’s good name as hostage.
If the idiots renew they save 80 billion immediately and can hold a gun to our head over the debt limit…again. They have no morals so this is a valid scenario. I’m afraid they will not move after they pass the renewal for 98%. We desperately need more tax revenues as 80 billion a year is not enough. I don’t know that we can get anything through the house unless this is a true awakening and I did not see that in the tan man today.
Relax, it’s going to be fine. The Democrats are going to force the Republicans to name the spending cuts they want. Knowing how radioactive that is, they’ll find a way to punt and punt and keep surrendering. If they push us over the cliff or cause our credit to be downgraded, they’ll be crucified in 2014. The Democrats just need to stick together and not run like frightened wussies. That’s what killed us in 2010.