Greg Sargent reports on the intention of Democratic Senate leadership to introduce a fix for sequestration that offers (and specifies) a mixture of new revenues and spending cuts. This is controversial because it amounts to negotiating with oneself. Why offer anything to the Republicans until they specify what they want? As Sargent notes, no matter what the Democrats offer the Republicans even if it is the Moon, it will be rejected as unserious.
This could annoy some on the left who may worry there’s no percentage in offering cuts, since it will only allow Republicans to deride them as unserious and ask for still more, shifting the debate in their direction. But the White House is already on record saying it supports averting the sequester through a mix of revenues and cuts, so not even Obama could support an approach that only includes revenues.
What’s more, despite the left’s criticism in the past of offering cuts up front as part of an “adult in the room” strategy, this has arguably worked to some degree. During the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling fights, Republicans ended up caving specifically because it became overwhelmingly obvious to the public that they were the intransigent party standing in the way of compromise — the political risk of taking the blame for taxes going up on everyone, and then default, simply became too great.
Republicans appear more willing to allow the sequester to go forward than they were to go over the cliff or default. But there are increasing signs of queasiness among them about the sequester, too. Dems are gambling they won’t risk taking the blame for gutting defense and tanking the economy — particularly if Dems grab the middle ground with an offer that’s balanced between revenues and cuts.
It remains to be seen what Dems will offer, and surely Republicans will deride whatever they do offer as unserious. But the simple fact is that Democrats right now are the only party willing to compromise to avoid the sequester. This is not a partisan observation; it’s a factual one. The Democratic position is that Republicans will get some of the spending cuts they want if they agree to closing loopholes. By contrast, Republicans are explicitly saying that any deal that gives Dems any of the new revenues they want is a nonstarter. Even if Republicans dismiss the cuts Dems do offer as insufficent, it will remain objectively true that only one side is suggesting we avert the sequester with a compromise that includes some of what both sides want. Meanwhile, the other side’s openly declared position is that this must not happen and that the sequester is preferable to both sides getting some of what they want.
I can see both sides of the argument. The Democrats have to keep in mind, however, that whatever they offer will be pocketed without any reciprocation. Their offer will become the new starting point for negotiations. So, the Democrats better not offer much.
So, the Democrats better not offer much.
I’m trying had not to laugh.
Are they actually negotiating to try to get a deal to avoid the sequester, or they posturing to make the Republicans take the blame for when the sequester happens?
The right strategy for the Democrats is different in those two situations.
In this case, I don’t think anyone thinks the sequester is a good idea. All talk on either side that they can live with it is basically bullshit. On the other hand, the Dems go into it in a better position. First of all, the base has already been conditioned to expect some pain. Not so, for the Republican base. Second, the Dems made sure to protect things like Social Security and Medicaid from the sequester, so they don’t have the same sense of urgency as people protecting Lockheed Martin. Third, the president (per usual) has totally boxed the GOP in and made it clear that he’s being reasonable while the GOP is not. Fourth, the Dems and the president are much more popular and trusted by the people.
So, it’s really a matter of when the Republicans cave and how much they give up. Right now, they can get a good deal. If the sequester kicks in, they will be desperate to make a deal and the conditions might not be so generous.
If the sequester gets replaced with a different deal that exchanges defense cuts for equal amounts of some combination of nondefense cuts and increased revenue, we will almost certainly be worse off. Defense cuts for revenues is close to a neutral deal, both economically and politically, but defense cuts for nondefense cuts will hurt the economy more (nondefense spending produces more jobs) and will be bad in the longterm because we’ll get less defense cuts out of the economic damage.
If the deal includes cutting back the magnitude of the sequester that may or may not be a good deal. Roughly you need to reduce the sequester by 1 dollar for every dollar you shift from defense to nondefense. But I don’t see that happening.
Just when I thought you were getting it.
Sigh.
They are negotiating with themselves.
This is simply the left hand jerking off the right side of the single standing political sex organ. The DemocRatpublican Party.
Doesn’t it, though!!!
Hell, man…you even use the magic word.
OH yes!!!
One of many “fixes.”
Bet on it. (If you can find an honest bookie, of course. Good luck wid dat as well.)
And the (
bad) beat goes on.And on and on and on and on and on…
WTFU.
Every time you give them credit for doing anything outside of an ongoing fix you are lending them much-needed political testosterone.
Them athletic steroid users got nuthin’ on the political users. That’s why the athletes get a pass for decades on end. They’re just the low end of a gigantic scam.
The United States of Omertica.
Bet on that as well.
Bet on it.
AG
The offered cuts will hurt the old and the poor, nobody important.
…while the larger amount of cuts in the sequester will hurt whom? Rich people and child molesters?
Mostly defense contractors. Not generally child molesters (although sometimes child killers, at least indirectly), but generally much more able to take cuts. In addition, spending on the disadvantaged produces more jobs than defense spending, which is very capital intensive. You won’t be able to point to the jobs lost by that shift, but you can be sure they are there.
No, not “mostly defense contractors.” Half of the cuts are defense, have domestic discretionary.
The new proposal lowers the total amount of cuts overall by replacing some of them with revenues – including reducing the cuts for the Adorable Children and Cuddly Puppies program.
And yet, somehow, the Democrats have to be cast as villains for this proposal.
You won’t be able to point to the jobs lost by that shift
There is no such shift in the Democrats’ proposal.
Incorrigible.
I know this is a truly radical concept, but, well, I dunno, maybe the Dems could try this:
I know, I know, crazy thinking. It’s all those crazy ideas I got while at business school – really wacko concepts like First Mover Advantage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mover_advantage
and Anchoring and Adjustment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring#Anchoring-and-adjusting
It’s not like we ever see this used successfully in real life. I mean, when the NFL asked for an absurd 18% pay cut for players and the players said “we like the deal we have”, the NFL didn’t end up winning big time or anything when the deal was agreed to.
And it’s not like new car dealers add thousands on to the list price of new cars – even those obviously selling for well below list price – because they believe that it will get people to settle for a higher price.
No, no, the time honored, proven best negotiating tactic is to start by offering the car dealer far over the list price. By conceding ground in advance you make sure they won’t say anything bad about you.