Me, on September 13th:
It looks increasingly like the House Republicans are on a suicide mission. It’s like they are hell-bent on making an amphibious landing on some beachhead against entrenched machine gun nests and heavy artillery fire without the benefit of any air cover. They are going to get cut to ribbons.
Speaker Boehner admits that he cannot come up with a plan to finance the government and pay its debts that wont be shot down by friendly-fire from his own caucus. That means that he will need to either consent to a government shutdown or go hat-in-hand to Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer and ask for their support in avoiding a catastrophe. But he doesn’t seem to want to do that preemptively, so he is still floundering around trying to appease his own Teahadist base.
I could have written that an hour ago, only changing “government shutdown” to “default on our debts.”
I am actually kind of fighting a feeling of contempt for people who are acting surprised or afraid.
This outcome was so obvious that it should have been easy to see for more keen observers of American politics.
We are, right now, exactly where we want to be. We are, right now, exactly where we are supposed to be. John Boehner was in the same situation on September 13 that he is in tonight. Nothing has changed. The Democrats did not flinch. The Tea Party did not flinch.
Boehner always had one choice: give the president what he wants or cause a global economic catastrophe. That is the choice he has right now, and it is not actually a hard decision. He will make the responsible choice. Eventually.
Check your email 🙂
predicting on Sept 13 that we’d still be in the same boat a month later was indeed obvious.
the prediction that Boehner will make the responsible choice is still not proven and I still wouldn’t bet a nickel on it.
Okay, so explain it to me. You wrote that in September and the Government got shut down. Now we’re back to that part of the feedback loop and how is it that you’re so sure Boehner will not default? Just because the outcome thus far has been so predictable?
Because he’s not insane.
Wrote this in the last thread, relevant here also;
If I remember right, the last time the GOtPers pulled their Manchurian Macarena hissy fit over losing the election, threatening default …..
Bohner set up a bill called “plan B” and promptly pulled it due to lack of GOtPer conference support right before caving and allowing the senate bill onto the floor.
Much of the made for media end of the world drama, then as in now, interestingly, is the same.
Two thoughts,
1. Bohner seems to be playing the same gambit, setting up a supposed bill for the teatards,
then pulling it for lack of support, at the very last minute,
leaving only what ever the US senate comes up with as a compromise,
as the only game in town to fend off the calamity of default the teatards want.
In default they hope partly to force President Obama’s hand
hoping they can find their impeachment pony
in that steaming pile horse hockey
they keep trying to serve up to the rest of us.
2. The ACA is just starting to be implemented and slowly dawning on the average citizen it is not the demon’s spawn the hard right has lied for years claiming it is ….
In the end it is becoming the next SS/Medicare program the majority of citizens will depend on for part or all of their health care.
The business community and wall street can see the writing on the wall, so they go from obstruction to finding ways to game the new system for as much money as they can grift off it.
Hence they want to stop enabling the paste eaters who want to burn down the county to stop the ACA and destroy President Obama’s historical legacy of getting a new health care right for american Citizens which puts him on league with FDR and LBJ.
The kabuki theatre of the media is entertaining but watching this reminds me that rerun season is just that and Bohner has signalled he will cave but only at the very last second possible.
Shutting down the government hurts the repubs politically, debt default destroys them,
Bohner knows this and he ain’t as dumb as he plays,
Other wise he would have lasted in DC as long as he has, let alone recovering from his role in the mess of getting rid of Gingrich the last time the GOtPers decided to play their foolish games, to rise to the speakers position.
Bow to you, Wise One. I didn’t think they would allow the sequester to take place last December, too insane, but they did, so I doubted this time. But you were right then too: http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/12/12/133720/30
When you say “he’s not insane” — and I heartily concur in that observation, by the way — I cannot help but think of another great American statesman who was “not insane” — I refer to the late Mt. George G. Papoon.
Papoon too was “not insane”, and when I say that I say it with swelling breast, as a proud member of the National Surrealist Light People’s Party, because in this day and age there are very few in the Republican Party who can make that claim.
http://www.firesigntheatre.com/papoon/
No, he’s not insane. He’s as weak as a wet kleenex. A wet, beer soaked kleenex.
Here, you deserve a better answer:
[Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/inside-the-republican-suicide-machine-20131009page=4#ixzz2
hq2tcPpS
]
Thank you. So he really is that deeply intrenched in the ‘establishment’ Republican world and won’t jeopardize them no matter what. So why the brinksmanship?
I’m reading on twitter that the Tea Party are giving up on this Congress and turning their attention to primaries.
The brinksmanship is because he can’t surrender to the Democrats and maintain any semblance of a party.
Right. And the only thing that’s changed for me is, up to now I’ve been wondering how the Republican Party is going to survive this.
Now I’m wondering if the Republican Party is going to survive this at all.
The party will, the Conservative Movement, as a unified movement with forward trajectory, will not.
They sure picked a stupid-ass hill to die on.
A little background music for this diary
One of the finest songs ever written, brings tears to my eyes every time I hear it, no matter the singer; even such different singers as Judy Garland – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-alqj0nd9-A – and Elvis Presley — yes, Elvis – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS15y3T9088
This:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN5AmHDTZ0M
is way better!! 😉
Well, the only tears that brought to my eyes was at the off-key yowling.
My favorite version
http://youtu.be/nsmN2SxW_Tw
You rock, Booman.
You have to admit, though, that it’s unprecedented (in our lifetimes, at least) for a sitting Speaker to fall on his sword. That’s the only part of how things stand in the House that gives me pause.
Ted Cruz, on the other hand… why do we trust him not to wreck everything?
He would if he could, but he can’t so he shan’t.
All he has to do is object to unanimous consent, right?
If he thinks he’d look nice in a pair of cement shoes.
Booman says 67 votes for change of rules can prevent that
(and save Cruz’s miserable life).
And our first entertainment of the evening:
And now for some acrobatics:
Are conservatives finally getting to the Depression stage of Kubler-Ross? Or still at Anger/Bargaining? I think Acceptance is still a long ways off.
Surprise – it’s almost as if BooMan actually knows WTF he’s talking about (as opposed to so much of the bleating commentariat). This blog has been an oasis of calm and reality-based confidence in recent days, just as it was throughout the 2012 elections.
Glad I migrated over from Daily Kos some time ago.
I used to spend a bit of time there too. This has been my favorite blog since I found it. Boo reminds me of Al Giordano (back when he used to post about politics). That guy kept a whole bunch of us sane through the 2008 election.
Hey, here’s our theme; congrats to all:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY
I always gotta say (at least once every couple of years), Boo, you are the man. If all I read was DKos, I’d run around with my pants on fire like the rest of the top posters there. You deserve whatever success comes your way.
I still visit Kos once per week.
Tom Tomorrow, you know.
Yeah, I read it too. And I don’t mean to bash it. It’s just that I’m a bit stunned that such smart posters can’t help but stoke the fear and panic. I can’t help but think that if folks on the left could just calm down a bit more we’d get more done.
Dude, if you’re proven right, you deserve to indulge in all the contempt you want.
I would prefer pity to contempt.
If Boehner’s not insane, then who thought up Resolution 368? It effectively dumped responsibility for a default in his and Cantor’s laps.
Many politicians look for cover when they have an unpleasant option ahead. This ploy places the blame.
Unless he hopes to use it against the Tea Party in some way, about which I cannot wrap my head.
You seem to be misunderstanding the point of that resolution.
It was intended to remove a point of privilege that would have allowed the Democrats to avoid a shutdown by forcing a vote on a clean CR that had majority support.
That has no bearing whatsoever on a vote on the debt ceiling. The Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, is in charge of the floor. He does the Speaker’s bidding. That is not unusual.
So, oh wise one. Will Cruz or Lee prevent unanimous consent in the Senate? Is there a workaround if they try?
Yes 67 votes to set the rules,
Default scares the bejesus out of more than 67 senators.
Well, Harry Reid should probably prepare for that possibility tonight by issuing notice of an intent to change the rules tomorrow if any senators withhold their consent.
Would that rules change be limited only to this one situation, or would it open a window for some other votes like various appointments to go through?
I haven’t been surprised by much of what has happened recently. I have been afraid, and you should feel free to feel contempt for me if you like; I’m a political ignoramus.
There is one thing that puzzles me. When I heard that Boehner was trying to get something passed in the House in response to what was happening to the Senate, it was obvious what was going to happen. He would try to pre-empt the Senate by passing a bill in the House with some demands, not as extreme as the demands Republicans have made previously, but enough to get it passed. And he would fail miserably, as the radicals in his party would not support him (and of course no Democrat would). And that seems to be what happened. Even a political ignoramus like myself could foresee that.
But then why did Republicans in the Senate put their negotiations with Democrats on hold? Ostensibly it was to allow Boehner time to get his act together, but why couldn’t they see that he was only acting at all because the Senate had begun to act? Why couldn’t they see it would fail pathetically? Or if they did foresee that, then why did they temporarily cut off negotiations with Democrats, to give time for Boehner to do something that obviously wouldn’t work? Doesn’t that put them in an even worse bargaining position with respect to Senate Democrats as the clock approaches doomsday? Plus of course there’s the minor matter that every day this goes on does real damage to the country, and makes us look like untrustworthy fools to the rest of the world. I can understand why Boehner did what he did; even if he’s planning to cave at the last minute (which I certainly hope he is), he wants to show his caucus he fought the good fight before doing so. But I don’t understand the behavior of the Senate Republicans in this instance at all.
Well, the Senate Republicans needed to give Boehner a chance. It’s not any more complicated than that.
It’s also McConnell trying to keep his fingerprints light on the deal, right?
Can’t wait to hear the True Believers lose their nut and swear eternal revenge on the Minority Leader.
It’s called giving the Teabaggers enough rope to hang themselves. And predictable as they are, they of course obliged.
Blast from the Past
for your evening’s enjoyment. h/t @billmon1
I don’t disagree with you, but the one thing that really gives me pause (well, the main thing; plenty of this crap gives me pause) is the fact that Boehner is just unbelievably incompetent. He is just the kind of weak, bumbling leader that could accidentally cause a default. I don’t think he intends to, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in his ability to competently execute the necessary maneuvers right up next to the deadline. And this latest FAIL doesn’t change the calculation in the least.
I just don’t understand how Boehner himself doesn’t get that he doesn’t have a governing majority in the Republican Caucus. The Tea Party morons are so high on their own supply that they won’t follow him on anything. Their votes are useless, weakening them all. If I were him, I really think I would have told them that I was interested in passing conservative legislation that could become law; their support would give me a stronger hand when dealing with the Senate, but if they didn’t want to play, they would own the result in more liberal legislation being passed. Maybe I have more self-respect than our Speaker. I just don’t think I could take being publicly humiliated by them every day.
To me Boehner is like deer in the headlights of an oncoming freight train. He is incapable of walking off the tracks: just too stupid, paralyzed and incompetent, and the train just keeps getting closer and closer.
If he had an ounce of brains he would have reached out to the Dems today to pass a continuing resolution. It is obvious that his own party is incapable of preventing a default on its own by passing a clean CR. They don’t WANT to, and frankly, neither does he. He’ll go down in history as one of the worst Congressional leaders this country has ever had.
That’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it.
Yes, this, exactly.
I wouldn’t even count on him to handle managing Dunder Mifflin’s Scranton branch.
Well, of course. The Scranton branch was one of the better-run branches at Dunder-Mifflin…
Can the House Rules Committee prevent Boehner from having a vote? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/15/1247644/-Breaking-Tea-Party-Rules-Committee-Denies-Boehner-
Rule
We are, right now, exactly where we want to be. We are, right now, exactly where we are supposed to be.
Going on what, two weeks now? People are missing paychecks, for what? Workers are getting assaulted by dumbass Teahadist Congresscritters, why? All for what, so the alcoholic Tan Man can keep the gavel one more year before he moves to K Street? Yeah, you’re probably right but it’s still no way to run a country.
He means, given all that, we are exactly where we want to be.
The Freepers a giddy about a default.
George Will has a NR piece about how this is a huge win because the Republicans are doling out billions in pulling in trillions in the out years.
And billmon says that the big problem with 1918 was the German staff were predicting a huge victory right until the end. And the defeat was an emotional shock. I guess that might anticipate some stab-in-the-back nonsense on the right.
So how does this work? Is Eric Cantor the long sword man?
Maybe this;
Issa: ‘I’ll Vote For A Clean CR’ To Fund Government
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/issa-i-ll-vote-for-a-clean-cr-to-fund-government
Issa the richest house member can with stand teatard attacks cause he can outspend them if he wants.
Bohner looks a little smarter then Cruz if this is where the route begins.
I yield to your political knowledge, Booman. However, it seems to me that they are going for broke. The gold bugs are saying a default would be good because it would force us onto the gold standard. Some are hoping for an over balanced budget to reduce the debt, although most seem to confuse the debt with the deficit.
Most of all it reminds me of the game of chicken. You remember that, don’t you? Driving head on at each other, no seat belts, no collapsible steering columns, no airbags, the first to swerve is a chicken. So young nitwits like me, drunk on testosterone, play the American version of Russian roulette, hearts pounding, forebrain screaming at the hind brain, hind brain determined to die rather than lose face. Someone always is the chicken.
Sure, the TPers are going for broke. If it were up to them, we’d crash and burn for sure. Fortunately there are still adults in charge on the Republican side. They try not to act like it unless they have to, and I hate to give guys like Boehner any credit (because they really are turds) but they do understand the importance of not sending the entire world economy into free-fall.
So I see this KOS diary, and if this is true, then Boehner has already give our Country over to the TParty terrorists.
It’s good the Dems kept Obama from being their chief negotiator. He has been a total disaster at it. Even though he apparently doesn’t think so. That’s where his arrogance gets in the way.
This is from a Robert Draper book on the Tea Party congress and the 2011 debt ceiling negotiations and vote: “When it came time for the debt-ceiling vote, Democrats were fuming. Congressman Dennis Cardoza, a moderate from California, raged to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on the floor that “the president of the United States was the worst negotiator who has ever owned the title! I mean, I didn’t know Millard Fillmore, but he’s the worst. He doesn’t know how to do this.” Pelosi replied, “Yeah, but he doesn’t think so.”
Wow!
“
i hear tell operation smedley butler going fully operational in 48 hours
“pennies on the dollar” is the code phrase to get in thru the door
From CNN:
“Hillary Clinton’s latest paid speech was to a group fighting Obamacare employer mandate”
Nice.
I’m surprised?
She will never stop giving.
The wise old man of the Republican Party (bit of irony there):
“It’s very, very serious,” warned Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. “Republicans have to understand we have lost this battle, as I predicted weeks ago, that we would not be able to win because we were demanding something that was not achievable.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/16/us/politics/congress-budget-debate.html
The gang that couldn’t legislate.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304561004579137290701284388
There was a portion of the book “They Thought They Were Free”, which was about how Nazism crept into control of Germany and how individual Germans were swept into it. It’s a fascinating account. It talked about the “salami tactic”, where a little freedom is sliced off after each “crisis”, and there was always another crisis. I mention this to note the parallels to our current series of invented Republican crises.
In some ways I can only remain calm because I don’t have much input into the House Republicans from my progressive lair here in Portland. I’ve unfriended my Daughters of the Confederacy sister to reduce the idiocy-generated stress, and rest is pretty much to carry on.
I sort of agree with you, Boo, that it doesn’t do much good to worry, and stress is part of their tactics, and logically it seemed to me that Cantor and Boehner would not lose billions of dollars for their fundraisers just so a yahoo from Florida wouldn’t lose face, but…