When Bob Menendez won reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2012, over three million people participated. Last night, Cory Booker won a seat in the Senate in an election in which only 1.2 million people participated. The drop-off in turnout was due to a variety of factors, including that Governor Christie scheduled the vote on a Wednesday, a day of the week that no New Jersey citizen has ever voted on before. It’s a simple, sad, fact of life that it is harder to get Democratic voters to the polls than Republican voters. Democratic voters are younger and more economically stressed than Republican voters, and less in the habit and less blessed with free time needed to vote. So, the National Review can crow all they want about the fact that Cory Booker only won his election by 11 points, but he was operating in deliberately-designed adverse conditions that will never be repeated. My guess is that Cory Booker will henceforth outperform Bob Menendez in their Senate elections for the simple reason that he is more charismatic and likable.
The truth is that Steve Lonegan didn’t even come close to winning last night’s election. Cory Booker won 13 out of New Jersey’s 22 counties, including all the most populous ones.
Another truth is that Republicans can win in New Jersey, as Governor Christie is likely to prove in a couple of weeks. But they can’t win as Tea Party Republicans. In the Garden State, style seems to be more important than substance, and Christie’s combative style sells pretty well there. But so does his cooperation with the president. If Christie wins reelection, it will be less about the economy, which sucks in New Jersey, than about his handling of the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. That was when he linked arms with the president and praised the federal government’s efforts to provide relief.
So, if the GOP is looking to learn some lessons, those lessons are staring them straight in the face.
Another truth is that Republicans can win in New Jersey, as Governor Christie is likely to prove in a couple of weeks.
Yes, when “Democrats” actively sabotage Democratic candidates. I notice you don’t mention Steve Sweeney and George Norcross. Why not?
Why would I?
Because those two are actively helping Christie and hurting Democratic candidates they don’t like, for what ever reason? Do you really think Christie has been good for New Jersey? He’s been as good for New Jersey as #OneTermTom has been for Pennsylvania. Say Ed Rendell was actively helping undermine Democrats and helping Corbett, wouldn’t that be worth mentioning?
Republicans seem to have developed the delusion that Democrats need 60% of the vote to win anything.
Speaking of Republicans learning, I saw this first thing and thought of you: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/lesson-learned-here-s-what-conservatives-are-taking-away-from-the-sh
utdown
TPM asked Rep. Peter King (R-NY), one of the more outspoken critics of the shutdown, if conservatives have learned their lesson. He paused, then laughed, then said: “Uh, I don’t know. Hope springs eternal. I don’t know.”
From the linked article:
For Boehner, Mission Accomplished! And a new Dolchstosslegende.
I saw someone describe this new GOP narrative the Doltstosslegende, which is perhaps the best typo in the history of typos.
The GOP has learned nothing. Look at South Dakota. The hard work of the ranchers and farmers is currently buried under 4 feet of snow and the GOP controlled congress has failed them like they want to government to fail everyone else.
The takeaway from the GOP might not matter if they can’t find a way to resolve this.
well, it matters precisely because of that. Obama just sliced the Republican Party cleanly in two. And it can’t be sewn back together again.
This is both what I saw as the goal and what I started planning on as an opportunity. This is why I talked up trying to make Boehner the Speaker of the House rather than the leader of the GOP caucus.
If not him, then somebody else. No one can lead the House GOP because they are split in two.
So far, you’ve been 100% correct. And I still don’t see how this changes anything! I’m starting to suspect that I’m a lost cause. I’ll just have to watch how things play out.
the challenge is that you cannot give moderate and centrist republicans any wins and a reason to poach independents from the democrats. Additionally, the Democrats cannot afford to take on the Tea Party directly; instead they need the GOP to keep fighting for the self-described conservatives.
As I mentioned elsewhere, Democrats are winning the demographic battle in the long-term, and are winning the moderates/independents in the short-term. The establishment GOP could still win elections by abandoning the far right and instead going after the middle.
I don’t give a shit about that political gamesmanship. If vulnerable Republicans save their own asses by helping the president enact his agenda, then I am totally fine with that. My hand is out.
Mitch McConnell has learned how to use the word “ransom,” but apparently not much else: