If you are ever tempted to think that your vote doesn’t matter, consider the 163-vote margin separating Mark Herring and Mark Obenshain in Virginia’s Attorney General race. With over 2.2 million votes cast, the result is a statistical tie. And, because the Attorney General oversees elections in Virginia, it could be an important win for the Democrats in 2016, should the presidential vote be similarly close.
The results won’t be certified until November 25th, after which I expect that there will be a recount. With results that close, there ought to be a recount.
The election turned on provisional ballots that were cast in populous Fairfax County. The Republicans tried to foul things up by forcing people to reappear to fight for their votes, but the local election board used their discretion to extend the deadline. Now the Republicans are blaming the extension for a violation of equal rights protection for provisional voters in other counties.
Republicans said Tuesday night that they were unhappy with the way Fairfax had handled the 493 provisional ballots cast there. Fairfax gave voters who wanted to appear in person to argue for the validity of their ballots until 1 p.m. Tuesday to do so. Other jurisdictions had observed a Friday deadline.
Republican attorney Miller Baker, who had been observing the screening of provisional votes, formally objected to the results before the Fairfax Electoral Board voted Tuesday. He said the equal-protection rights of other provisional voters were violated because voters in Fairfax County had more time to testify to the legitimacy of their ballots.
“These in-person interviews have made a difference,” Baker said. “Voters in Bedford, Richmond, Charlottesville and Danville were not given the same opportunity.”
Baker commended the Fairfax electoral board for trying to get the most accurate results, but he argued that the board should hold off on formally reporting the results.
“We should make certain that every legitimate vote is being counted and we are getting it right,” he said. “They are trying to do the right thing, but regrettably that has not occurred.”
It’s a Republican vs. Republican argument because the three-member Fairfax Board of Elections has two Republicans. The state GOP can’t argue that it was a partisan decision to extend the deadline. Actually, they can’t really argue anything. All they can hope is that a recount finds a more favorable result for them, which it might.
What’s that old saying? “Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it. “
Indeed. The Republicans complained about surrounding areas and precincts in Richmond and what they ended up finding was that Herring gained more votes.
It will be nearly impossible for the recount to rebound in Obenshain’s favor. 163 votes, though a tiny margin, won’t likely be reduced enough to make a difference at this point.
you never know. I think an initially uncounted ballot box in Fairfax made the difference. Could there be another one in a big Appalachian polling place? Could numbers have been counted twice somewhere by accident? A recount might not come up with identical numbers.
Well, I agree with the guy. Let people have the opportunity to validate their ballot. Do it everywhere, in all instances!
It sounds like each Board Of Elections has the discretion to determine the amount of extra time allotted for making sure all eligible votes are counted. Most jurisdictions determined that giving until Friday was sufficient. Fairfax County decided they needed more time. That’s how the rules are written, apparently.
If the GOP is so hellbent on making sure all legal votes are counted everywhere, and that none fall through the cracks, then they should get on board with everyone on the Democratic side who are pushing for making sure that everyone who wants to vote can vote, and that includes helping to make sure everyone has easy access to the proper documents so that we can minimize the casting of these provisional ballots.
In this case, it appears that in a roundabout way, their voter suppression efforts might have bitten them in the ass. Heh….Karma.
This is not a correct statement. There are no “statistical ties” in actual voting. Voting is counting, and this is not subject to statistical ties, errors of ascertainment, or other matters. This is a matter of simply determining ballots that are eligible, and counting them up.
Statistical ties occur in ESTIMATION, not in VOTING. Estimation happens when we do polling. Polling results can have “statistical ties”, due to the margin of error.
There is no margin of error in actual voting. When you have 100 votes for Candidate A and 99 for Candidate B, you do not have a “statistical tie”. You have a win for Candidate A with a 1-vote majority.
Yeah, except with all the provisionals and different rules in different counties about how and when they will be counted, allowed, etc., there is never a real count that you can call a perfect reflection of the electorate’s will. We do our best, often with both sides trying to cheat the other. What’s the percent difference between 160 votes out of 2.2 million cast?
Well, I am not in agreement here. The vote is a counting process, not an estimation process. Given a systematic, appropriate method, the vote is exact and not an estimate. When you win by 1 vote, you have not “statistically tied,” you have won a close vote.
Provisionals: This is a matter of definition. The issue with a provisional vote is that, at the time of the casting of the ballot, the eligibility of the voter is not clear. After the election is over, almost all elections are decided by cast votes which are accepted at the time. Mail-in votes are often not opened because there are not enough to bridge the gap. Here, there are.
Statistical ties only occur in estimation processes, such as polls. Actual votes are either close or not. This election is a close one. What is unknown at this time lies in undiscovered boxes of ballots, the “unknown unknowns” as discussed by the Philosopher-Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld.
And if in the count A leads B by 163 my one vote won’t push it the other way.
I think I’ll pass.
AAIIIEE! We suppressed the wrong votes!!
Speaking of close elections, Kshama Sawant, a Socialist candidate now leads Richard Conlin, the incumbent by 41 votes in the race for Position #2 on the Seattle City Council. Seattle (and all the rest of Washington) votes by mail. There are a few ballots still coming in and there will be a recount because the margin is so narrow, but it looks good for Sawant.
Awesome news!
well, is there a filled-in paper ballot for every vote cast in VA? If yes, a recount can be definitive, if done in conjunction with precinct lists to see if Repubs have stuff fake votes in. If this election has purely “electronic” votes, made up of nothing but electrons, then certainty is far more unlikely.
Also, as I’m sure most know, VA Repubs talking about “equal protection” issues in ballot counting are referring to openly partisan analysis from the dishonest Bush v Gore decision…the only case where Scalia ever found an equal protection violation (as of 2001).
Until that case, no one would have imagined that counties would have to have precisely exact election procedures in order to be constitutional.
Of course, the Repub “equal protection” analysis never seems to require the same number/type of election machinery for well-off white suburban precincts and densely packed urban ones (with negroes!) Also, too, the Bush v Gore “equal protection” analysis only applies if it looks like the Repub lost…so don’t expect much help from the courts, Mr. Herring, when Repubs drag this election into court, which they almost certainly will.
While the reports say that the election turned on the Fairfax provisional ballots, that’s not really true. Herring had a lead of 117 going into the Fairfax meeting, and picked up 46 net votes as a result of the consideration of the provisional ballots. Since the Republicans are arguing, essentially, that all of the provisionals should be thrown out, getting their way wouldn’t get them nearly enough votes to put Obenshain in the lead.
There were really two turning points in the count. One had to do with missing results in one Fairfax precinct, where one voting machine malfunctioned and didn’t provide the correct count. The other was the Richmond canvass on Monday, which moved Herring from less than 20 votes behind to 117 ahead, mostly as a result of reviews requested by the Republicans of specific precinct results.
The Republicans are pissed because they didn’t hack the voting machines hard enough. Lots of anecdotal mentions that pressing Macauliffe resulted in a vote for Cuccinelli.
If you don’t think those shenanigans extended downticket, I have a very nice, historical bridge connecting Manhattan to Brooklyn to sell you.
This is exactly why a physical ballot is so very important. The electronic ones are simply not believable.
Please make it absolutely clear that the change in provisional was done IN THE MIDDLE OF COUNTING PROVISIONALS AND ONLY IN THIS ONE COUNTY.
This is what you call ‘ changing the rules in the last 2 minutes of the game.’
Our vote really matters, even just one!
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physical therapy practice