Every rich Republican in the country seems eager to throw millions of dollars at Jeb Bush. In a way, I understand. Jeb is more like his father than his idiot brother. On paper, he looks like an actual presidential candidate, unlike, say, Michele Bachmann, Hermann Cain or Rick Santorum. He might be able to unite the Republican Party in a way that Jon Huntsman simply could not. I have been saying for years that Jeb Bush is about all the GOP has in the way of a viable presidential candidate, and I still believe that.
It’s quite possible that Jeb could win the nomination in pretty much the exact same way that McCain and Romney did…by default. But it won’t be possible for him to unite the Republican base. Not only is a big part of the Republican base aligned against the big-government deficit-spending of Jeb’s father and brother, but they are almost pathologically opposed to immigration reform and they’d rather home school their kids than have them race to the top of a Common Core curriculum.
If Jeb decides to run and winds up in a showdown with Hillary Clinton, he’ll have a shot, but he won’t be successful if he relies on a get-out-the-base strategy. McCain and Romney proved that the GOP base is too small to carry a Republican to victory in a national election. A successful candidate would have to take the far right for granted and accept that there will be some drop-off in enthusiasm, while repositioning the Republican Party in the center. Jeb could do that.
But another thing that I think will hamper him is an unwillingness to publicly criticize his brother. I mean, it’s kind of classy to be respectful and protective of your brother, but it leaves you a sitting duck for bombs launched from both the left and the right.
I’m not sure if Jeb will actually run. He’d have to be convinced he has half a prayer of beating Hillary, and I have no idea why anyone would be very confident about any Republican’s chances against her. And, I think, Jeb would have to be pretty confident that he wouldn’t get humiliated and lose the nomination to Mike Huckabee or something.
Either way, the people with the moneybags are waiting in the wings.
It is apparently very hard to say no when people urge you to run for Prez, and you’re in a legitimate position to do so. Political biographies always talk about it, and it can drive even the most ruthless pols wild with dreams of their own greatness. So Jeb will probably run. But he is far more vulnerable than the media coverage would indicate. And out of practice too – he was governor ages ago, whereas Cruz and the rest have been in training for the past couple years.
If he runs, I very much doubt he wins the nom, let alone defeats Hill-dawg. The base will get their Goldwater in 2016 and it won’t be a man named Bush.
Since more than half this country is batshit crazy (thank goodness some don’t vote!), it would be almost tolerable to have Bush/Huntsman in the white house if the alternative were Paul or some other right wing freak. But I still think we need to have a good right wing freak as president with all the power given him by a compliant and radical GOP controlled congress to teach america the lesson it surely needs.
I think you need to think this through a bit more. We are still recovering from Reagan, all those decades ago. And it’s not only the presidency at stake – you think it’s a good idea to have a supreme court that is more conservative and political than the one we have?
I don’t know how else to convince the 60 million people who voted for Mitt Romney that they are wrong. Letting the wing-nuts have their way may be the only way to do it. Go figure.
I don’t know how to convince you that you are wrong. I recommend that you get involved in registering people to vote and get involved in a campaign. I was so busy busting my butt for Barack Obama in Iowa in 2008 that it wasn’t until the day of the caucuses that I thought “what if we don’t win”. That’s how you win.
“But I still think we need to have a good right wing freak as president with all the power given him by a compliant and radical GOP controlled congress to teach america the lesson it surely needs.”
What was 2001 to 2007 then? Just a warm up? If anything, Republicans have gotten worse since then. There’d be no stopping them if they got both the legislative and executive branches again. They would do everything in their power to make sure another Democrat could never become president.
I can only speak for myself, but my life hasn’t changed one way or another as the two parties swapped political power in the last 35 years. If I’m honest about it, my life has gotten better; but I have the education and skills to compete in this economy. It has surely been bad for others… maybe they should vote more often.
“Since more than half this country is batshit crazy”
About half the voting population is batshit crazy (assuming by that you mean “votes GOP”). We don’t actually know what percentage of the non-voting population is batshit crazy, but it seems to be much less than half.
If they don’t vote, they might as well be radical tea party republicans. I don’t give a crap what non-voters think.
This is a very myopic point of view. As someone who is personally working very hard in my heavily Republican area to get our statewide Democratic slate elected, I can tell you that those non-voters and sporadic voters are the key in many races. Our teams spend endless hours strategizing and researching ways to lessen the under-vote in our area through reaching out to those voters that you “don’t give a crap about”. Almost none of the under-voters are “radical Tea Party Republicans”. Many of them are people who have just not yet seen the personal relevance of politics to their daily lives. If we can convince a few percent of those non-voters in our red county that our candidates give a shit about them, and a few other red counties are also able to do the same, then across the state that could translate into tens or hundreds of thousands of additional votes. And we could wake up after election day to a completely new political landscape in our state.
If you haven’t done so, I suggest you take Watergirl’s earlier advice and get involved with an election campaign and you will see that discounting any portion of the electorate as irrelevant is simply foolish; particularly if one is trying to get someone elected statewide while they themselves live in a heavily partisan area. I think you would change your tune quickly on that. You would find that the world and politics functions quite differently, at times, than it does inside the bubble where your life “has gotten better”.
You are exactly right. We spent weeks canvassing and talking to non-voters and sporadic voters during both of Obama’s campaigns. Then we provided rides to the polls and called them to confirm. Those efforts were key to winning in Virginia.
I have discovered over the last 18 months, since my political activism has become more substantive, that politics on the ground is much, much different than practicing ones politics from behind a computer keyboard. It is much more difficult than I had imagined. And you have to be prepared, at least in this area, to often eschew short term satisfaction in favor of the long term game.
So the years 2002-2006 were not bad enough for the country? Not “radical” enough to teach us our lesson?
If Cheney doesn’t count as “a good right wing freak” in complete control, I don’t know what would…
Apparently not. In 2010 the voters delivered a massive rebuke to the democratic party. They handed control of the House to the radical GOP and took over enough state legislatures to initiate attacks on women’s rights, voting rights, and unions.
Even the economic catastrophe of 2008 and 2009 was quickly forgotten in a fit of spite over attempts to help people get health insurance. It’s stunning.
In response to all this, some here think we should work harder to make our case. But our argument is self-evident and has been rejected out of hand by many millions of Americans. It really shouldn’t be this hard. The fact that it is… says something about the American people… and it isn’t good.
It’s time to reassess our agenda. It’s dead for now anyway.
Watching Jeb! and Rand Paul argue over his brother’s legacy could be worth the cost in popcorn.
Yes, lets talk about the trillions in debt Bush 1 and Bush 11 added to the deficit. Think Paul can get this Bush to promise not to invade Iraq?
The base will be enthusiastic. Not necessarily about Jeb, but about defeating the Princess of Darkness, Hillary. A successful woman is an arch-demon to them and they are obsessed with her in particular. I think it was the press, way back in the early ’90s portraying her as equal with Bill, which Bill acknowledged, speaking of co-Presidents. Equality for a woman is the Original Sin to them. They would vote for Huntsman, any man against her.
Hillary is too far right for me in foreign affairs and too far left in sexual politics.
Maybe I’ll stay home, if she’s the candidate, secure in the knowledge that one vote never makes he difference.
Could you expand on the second half of your objection?
To hell with hillary.
No not Jeb! The GOP can not in good faith dump their poster boy of ethical GOP behavior Christie! He needs to be the chosen one. So that he may when elected President pardon himself for any possible convictions.
I can see the Jebster having an excellent chance of getting the nom, with possibly only Paul Rand in his way, who I expect to increasingly show his flakey side as the nomination process heats up. Jeb is far more experienced and steadier, what you see is what you get, with just enough I’m not my brother for people to clearly see to satisfy doubters.
I also figure he’s got nearly a 50% chance to beat Hillary — or the best chance of any of the wackaloon GOP hopefuls.
He will have 90% of the MSM propagandizing on his behalf, like 2000 and Junior, while they demonize Hillary, much as they did with Albert, wildly exaggerating and even making things up. The liberal blogosphere, kos especially, and Rachel Maddow will offer lukewarm support to her candidacy — the lesser of two evils endorsement.
Given some of her recent hawkish statements about Putin and Ukraine, I can’t say as I’m too enthusiastic either. And I was a hardcore backer in the 2008 primaries.
In 2016 it’s possible immigration will be overshadowed by far more pressing issues — like the devolving US/Euro v Russia situation, with the candidates probably trying to out-hawk each other, or a devolving economy, with the Jebster arguing If only Obama and the Dems had allowed us to put the country on a firmer basis by cutting more wasteful gubmint spending, etc.
I am not hopeful about our near-term future. Get back to me in about 100 years …