Welcome the newest Democrat to the party. Evan Alvarez, the chairman of the Mississippi Federation of College Republicans, has resigned his position and decided to switch parties. His father came to America in 1959 after Fidel Castro seized power in Cuba. For the next 55 years, Cuban-Americans would serve as one of the Republican Party’s most loyal constituencies, particularly in the Deep South. But, that has changed:
Cubans in the U.S. have long identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party, even as Hispanics overall have tilted Democrat. But the party affiliation of Cubans has undergone a shift over the past decade, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of survey data.
Less than half (47%) of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party—down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago, according to 2013 survey data. Meanwhile, the share of Cubans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has doubled from 22% to 44% over the same time period, according to the survey of Hispanics.
It has particularly changed among people Evan Alvarez’s age. According to Pew, “Over half (56%) of Cubans ages 18 to 49 identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party compared with 39% of those 50 years and older.”
You can imagine what this means for the fortunes of Republican candidates in Florida. It means that a contemporary candidate would have to do much better than George W. Bush did with non-Cubans in 2000 and 2004 to have any shot at winning Florida.
Florida’s Latino population is unique because it is made up primarily of Cubans and Puerto Ricans, neither of whom have the immigration status concerns of many Mexicans and Central Americans. Still, the Puerto Ricans don’t share the Cubans’ Cold War affinity for the GOP, and their population has been growing. You can see why that matters:
In 2008, Obama won 57 percent of Florida’s Hispanic vote; Republican nominee John McCain, 42 percent. However, Cubans supported McCain 53 percent to 47 percent. Non-Cuban Hispanics backed Obama by 65 percent to 33 percent.
Obviously, Barack Obama won Florida in 2008, and then again in 2012. I think we should expect any likely Republican presidential candidate to do worse in 2016, both among Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans. That means that they will have to do a lot better than McCain and Romney did with whites. How do you think they will go about doing that?
Evan Alvarez is quitting the party because of the influence of the Tea Party in Mississippi, which is basically a way of politely saying that the party is too racist for this young Cuban-American.
This is a canary in a coal mine.
Without winning Florida, a Republican’s path to the White House is all but blocked.
I was in need of a dose of good news. Hope it doesn’t stop here but becomes a tsunami due to Republican trampling of minority rights. See recent Samuel Alito decision turning back the clock one century at a time.
… for Dems..
“Without winning Florida, a Republican’s path to the White House is all but blocked.”
I suspect that a lot of Republican leaders know this.
And that’s why they’re trying to gut this country state-by-state, legislature-by-legislature, and Governor-by-Governor.
Look at what’s happened to WI, OH, and NC in recent years – among other states.
And, as long as the Republicans can hang onto the US House, they can continue to do damage on a national scale, by preventing this country from moving forward, and responding to critical issues.
Note to women:
Vote.
While you still can.
(And, of course, the men who love women, and consider them equals, and not baby vessels or incubators).
These people are so consistently despicable.
Kids never know history. They just delight in offending their elders.
Given the demographics, what is the percentage of white voters that must shift to tip Mississippi to the Democrats?
I think Booman did an envelope calculation to say it was around 19%.
Here’s Nate.
“Obama has zero chance of winning Mississippi or Alabama.” Duh! But what about a white candidate with Southern or border ties? Clinton or O’Malley?
“Obama has zero chance of winning Mississippi or Alabama.”
You know what’s part of that reason? The state parties there are a mess. I mean the state party website looks like Geocities level stuff. That’s how much of a mess. I know some people are trying to change that but it’s a long slog.
With work, a white candidate can win state-wide. A black man? Maybe in the 22nd Century.
OT: The IRS Is Coming For Your Offshore Bank Account
By Alex Park Tue Jul. 1, 2014 6:00 AM EDT
It’s always been a pretty simple arrangement for America’s superrich: Park your money in a country whose banks know how to keep a secret and then underreport your assets to the IRS. Without a way to independently verify how much money you have abroad, the taxman had to take your word for how much money you had stashed in a Swiss vault or in a sunny haven like the Cayman Islands. But as of yesterday, the US government will require foreign banks to report their American clients’ assets, or face 30 percent tax penalties on some offshore deposits.
The move is part of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which was introduced in 2010. Since then, more than 80 countries have agreed to open their ledger books to the feds. After some complicated last-minute negotiations, evenRussia and China have started to cooperate.
Companies and individuals have long used offshore banking to keep their taxes low: Last year, American multinationals kept an estimated $2 trillion (yes, with a “t”) abroad, according to a Bloomberg analysis. In recent years, tech companies have become some of the most enthusiastic offshore depositors. Between 2010 and 2013, Microsoft more than doubled its foreign stockpile to $76.4 billion, while Apple increased its pot abroad more than fourfold to $54.4 billion.
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2014/06/offshore-bank-accounts-fatca-irs
Darryl Issa will hold hearings. It’s a Democratic plot! Benghazi!
Trickle NOT down economics. The economy needs those taxes but not as much as it needs the MIA deposits to come home and go to work.
There’s more than one canary in our coal mine, it’s just that we are looking at them one at a time. Yes the younger generation of Rep recognizes the TParty as problematic for their own conservative; mostly because their youth sees through the obstruction and wants to see movement for their future.
But other canaries that have been singing have been insurance companies who are tired of picking up the tab for climate change disasters. Their voice, in the form of lawsuits like Farmer’s, are looking to share the burden with govts that neglect the infrastructure that could mitigate damage. Their support for Rep’s who don’t address infrastructure hangs in the balance.
Last week there’s Paulson and Rubin pointing to the threat to the economy that climate change is grabbing. Big business doesn’t take the interruption lightly when storms, heat & extreme weather attack their bottom line. Obstruction doesn’t grease the wheels of big business faced with losses. Will these donors move towards a Party that addresses solutions?
Lastly of course is the Pentagon’s assessment of the role the military will be charged with as climate change impacts our Country like no terrorist could even dream of. McCain’s ‘bomb, bomb, bomb’ stands even more starkly in the way of the needs of a future military complex.
Lots of canaries.
This isn’t a canary in a coal mine. Real ones were dying in the FL shafts by 2000. Jeb! didn’t see the carcases which explains why Jeb! underestimated the votes that had to be disappeared to hand the election to his big-bro.
Evan is a Republican. Completely comfortable with very conservative Republicans such as Sen Cochran. His problem is that the MS TP isn’t playing nice now that they have secured approximately half the GOP. So, why fight these guys when there’s another political party in MS with almost no competition for leadership positions?
FL 2000 when younger Cubans broke away from their parents and grandparents generations that aligned with the GOP to refight the Cuban Revolution from their La-z-boys was welcome news. Fourteen years after that shift and after a stint as a GOP campus leader shouldn’t warm the cockles of any Democratic heart.
The people who are waiting until July 2014 to switch parties are grifters who are doing so because they want to retain as much power and wealth as possible.
Pre-2011, I guess I could give a pass. But 3 years after the TeaParty Express has shat all over everything?
Political Expediency. If he can get Dems elected, great, but they’d probably be Zell Miller Dems. I guess committee assignments could be worth it…
Or a Manchurian Candidate.