I understand that Abdullah Abdullah is really named just “Abdullah” but he got tired of the media always asking him for a last name so he became Abdullah Abdullah, which is pretty awesome.
In any case, Abdullah Abdullah thinks he was robbed in the Afghan presidential election and he’s basically writing off the results of an independent audit. I’m not sure what this is going to mean, but it probably won’t be any anything good.
His opponent, former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, is Pashtun, while Abdullah Abdullah is of mixed heritage with Tajik and Pashtun ancestry.
Tomorrow is the 13th anniversary of the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the former leader of the Northern Alliance. Supporters of Abdullah Abdullah will be feeling some strong emotions and they’ll be angry about Abdullah Abdullah’s fate.
In the longer term, Afghanistan needs a president and it could really use one that has widespread internal legitimacy. But, I guess that’s out of the question now.
The United States and Afghanistan have had in place for a year and a half a Strategic Partnership Agreement that defines the outlines of US presence in Afghanistan and the terms of cooperation. The US and Afghanistan under this agreement were to complete a Bilateral Security Agreement this year, but disagreements over immunity for US troops and contractors became an intractable issue even as who the counter-party to the agreement became unclear as a result of the stalemated corrupt election. (Both sides stole it fair and square.)
Without a Bilateral Security Agreement, the US is not obliged to leave at the end of 2014 nor are US troops or civilians prosecutable under Afghan law. It is not likely that either Ghani or Abdullah would allow immunity in any bilateral security agreement that they signed.
The Northern Alliance clearly has been most associated with US CIA operations and Ghani (like Karzai) with US business interests. Abdullah has gathered the old warlords into a coalition that is the real threat behind his declaration of victory. That immediately opens a split in the Pashtun community between Ghani and further strengthening of the Taliban. Continued US presence after December will turn the Taliban into an anti=foreign militia, somthing that it has positioned itself as since Bush allowed its resurgence while the US attacked Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
it is a mess that US demands for impunity have made more of a mess.
As a matter of state, Afghanistan is an observer in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which allows it regional security in cooperation with Russia, China, and the -stans. India is also an observer. Current plans are for all observers, except Afghanistan to become permanent members by the end of 2014.
So whatever turmoil within Afghanistan can be contained by the SCO member states so long as the US is not longer a complicating factor. That however runs counter to US doctrines of forward positioning of military assets and identification of Russia and China as rivals if not potential enemies.
So it is possible that Abdullah’s action will spark continuation of the 35 year civil war that provided haven for al Quaeda up until 2002. De facto partition and warlord territories seem likely to return instead of being implicit under US occupation. (I have strong suspicions that not all opposition labeled by DoD as Taliban indeed was.)
I wonder how much the usual US suspects have been meddling here.
○ Booman’s Archive: Shah Massoud
From my previous writing @dKos …
○ BBC News – US ‘planned attack on Taleban’ | Sept. 18, 2001 |
○ The Assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud
Pakistan is our ally, who happened to support the Taliban, who allied with bin Laden who attacked the US.
Saudi Arabia is our ally, who happened to fund bin Laden, who attacked the US.
Saudi Arabia is our ally, who happens to fund ISIS, which is committing genocide and murder.
Iran is our enemy, who happens to loathe the Taliban, bin Laden, Sunni terrorism, and ISIS.
It’s fucking great being an anti-democratic Empire with all the cool weapons, ain’t it!
Oh.
Are we still pretending that Afghanistan is a functioning country with a functioning government?
Oop, I forgot we were still doing that.
why are the internet hamsters giving me the option to edit and update your posts – a string of “edit”s along the base of the post? [or add a poll]
Isn’t “Chaos in Afghanistan” akin to “Rain in England”? It’s not exactly like flooding in Arizona.
There is nothing intelligent about the prediction. Many already predicted chaos when the US invaded Iraq – and it is happening again. Iraq was in good shape before the US invaded.
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