I’m never certain that hosting big security-heavy events is really a money-maker for the local community, but I have to say that I am pleased that Duncan’s urban hellhole will be hosting the 2016 Democratic National Convention.
And even if Duncan’s welcoming committee is typically Mid-Atlantic, I promise that at least some of us will be friendly.
Just so you know, Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Club for Growth) will be up for reelection, possibly against Joe Sestak. We also need to win back three suburban House districts that have been gerrymandered out of our reach, but which could fall to us in a landslide election. So, locally, we have some elections to win and they’ll matter more than Pennsylvania’s Electoral College delegates. After all, if a Democrat, particularly Hillary, cannot easily win Pennsylvania then we’re in for a long national nightmare starting the day The One leaves office.
In any case, I will be able to cover this convention in a way that would not have been possible if it had been held in Columbus or Brooklyn, let alone places like Charlotte and Denver.
When Philly hosted the 2000 RNC, the police were extremely heavy-handed with the protestors, which is something I will probably have plenty of opportunity to write about over the next 16 months.
In the meantime, you’ll need to book your table at Chez Cabin immediately, as we only have a couple spare beds and a couch.
I have family in South Jersey so I’ll probably be there, but it will be nice to meet some people face-to-face.
Duncan is the only one with a sad face that I’ve found, so far.
Do you have an AAA discount?
Airbnb.
Won’t all their protesters be armed, though?
Given the finalists — Brooklyn, Columbus OH, and Philadelphia — the decision looks optimal to me. Not edgy but safe enough without being super-safe. (Denver in 2008 was edgy and NC in 2012 was dumb.)
The last time the GOP national convention was held in a state that the candidate carried in November was in 1992. But Houston was super-safe as were the Democratic choices for 1992-2004.
Why was NC dumb? I saw the logic: NC is going to be the closest state of 2012, it has a lot of ground organizing with the Moral Monday protests, and a lot of unregistered voters to push Dems over the edge. And it was pretty close, being the second closest behind Florida.
The same reason why Indianapolis would have been dumb. And Obama’s 2008 margin in Indiana was better than it was in NC. There were no “blue” trendlines in either longtime “red” states. By early 2011, it was clear that 2008 had been an anomaly.
Denver in 2008 was IMHO “edgy” because GWB had carried the state in 2000 and 2004, but reaching further back, it was a “wobble” state and by early 2007 it the blue trendlines had re-emerged, strongly suggesting that the state could be flipped. The convention caught that wave and took full advantage of it. Such opportunities don’t seem to be that common. It’s possible that the GOP has nabbed one with Cleveland in 2016, but they probably thought the same in 2011 when they went with Tampa.
Of four key states that Obama carried in 2008 — FL, OH, VA, and WI — he only needed to hold one of them in 2012. While WI results in Presidential elections are often close, the last time it went for the Republican candidate was in 1984 and Obama’s win in 2008 solid. The other three are “wobble” states and FL and OH post-2008 were trending red. Obama’s winning margin was weakest in FL; so, FL would have seemed an obvious DNC choice for 2012. So, obvious that the GOP announced in May 2010 that they were going to Tampa. That was before the DNC even announced its finalists. Second weakest was OH. Cleveland made the short list which is what they should have gone with.
As I said, Philadelphia is a safe choice for 2016, but FL, OH, or VA would have been a more objectively strategic choice. Except for Jeb! jumping into the race which made FL more of a dud choice. OH was dicey because Kasich has been lurking in the shadows. And VA is geographically too close to the last convention.
I disagree, but to each his/her own, I suppose. I don’t think Indiana is on the same trend lines as NC, and I definitely would have though Indiana would have been dumb. The Democrats are clearly making inroads in NC; Kay Hagan barely lost in a huge wave election. Yes, Thom Tillis was a fairly weak candidate, but he didn’t make the same waves as Richard Mourdock, and 2012 can’t be compared to 2014.
NC, OH, CO, VA, and FL are going to be the closest states of 2016. FL and OH for obvious reasons; VA and CO are the next “New Mexico” states. I’m not worried about WI. NC will be the wildcard. Although, perhaps the AA community won’t be as determined to turn out without O at the top.
VA wobbled badly last year. A so-called “wildly popular” incumbent DEM Senator barely won against an opponent with negative charisma and zero prior experience in elective office.
CO sent a nutcase to the Senate and ousted a decent incumbent. Tillis is as rightwing and nutty as they come. NC will not be a wildcard in 2016 — it’s gone.
There are good reasons to be concerned about CO, IO, VA, and even WI next year. NM is wobbling less but the incumbent GOP governor was easily re-elected. And the GOP in NV is strong.
Not mad it went to Philly.
Glad it didn’t go to Brooklyn.
Woulda chosen Columbus.
Some of the welcoming committee will be friendly? Philadelphia is famous for having a crowd boo Santa Claus when he showed up. Santa Claus! There’s also the story about the plane which landed at Philadelphia in difficult winds and the passengers booed as well when the plane finally touched down and started its roll rather than clapping as is sometimes the case. Whoever wins the nomination in Philly should be prepared for boos rather than applause as well, no matter how well they might be received otherwise.