If you go back to the piece I wrote last summer called “Jeb is Headed for Little Bighorn,” you can see two things. One, I was prescient about how and why Jeb would struggle on the campaign trail, and, two, that John Kasich is currently pursuing the strategy that Jeb wanted to pursue but has had to abandon.
I was watching the Halperin/Heilemann/McKinnon campaign reality show The Circus on Showtime last night. They talked to Kasich’s chief strategist John Weaver, and Weaver told them that Kasich knows that he doesn’t have a chance of winning in South Carolina or even of doing particularly well. He’s campaigning there, Weaver explained, almost entirely to poach as many votes as he can from Jeb Bush so that Bush cannot recover and get any traction. Kasich wants to contribute to delivering the knockout blow to the Bush Clan so he can have the “happy warrior” lane to himself in the Midwest. If Kasich can win his home state of Ohio, which is winner-take-all, he’ll be in business. But Michigan is coming up…
CBS News has new polling out of South Carolina, and it shows Kasich at 9% and Bush at six percent. Combine their votes and they match Marco Rubio in third place (15%) behind Cruz (20%) and Trump (42%).
Now, Rubio doesn’t have a consistent brand, which is part of his problem, but he does at least flirt with what we might call “the politics of earnestness.” This contrasts with the Insult Dog stylings of Trump, Cruz, and the dear-departed Chris Christie. I’d be tempted to put Carson (6%) in the earnest camp, too, but I don’t think his voters are going to stay in the earnest camp when he inevitably drops out.
Even if we put Carson in the anti-Insult Dog camp, they combine to account for 36% of the vote in South Carolina, while Trump and Cruz are pulling sixty-two percent. In other words, no combination can stop Trump that doesn’t involve Cruz and vice-versa.
But Bush would like to show some life by coming in third in South Carolina, and Kasich is making that very difficult right now.
And Kasich is doing better than Bush by running the campaign that Bush wanted to run when this all started last summer.
So, which of them should drop out?
I’d argue that Kasich will have proven his point if he beats Bush in South Carolina after finishing a strong second in New Hampshire.
If these poll numbers hold up in South Carolina, it’ll be Bush who’s hurting Kasich at that point, rather than the other way around.
Normally, I don’t snark at you, Boo, because you know what you’re talking about, you say it in a plain fashion that makes it easy to analyze, you provide loads of side analysis that makes it easy to look up your sources on my own and you are most often just damn right. But here, I think you are missing an elephant sized point (or maybe not, maybe you just don’t delineate it).
Why would Bush CARE whether or not Kasich does well? For all his faults, Bush is not stupid and his political advisors are not uninformed about what it takes to win. So why has he not saved himself a lot of heartache, travail and aggravation? In a word: “P”
The FOURTH generation of Bushies. Just for shits and giggles, I did a google search on “Jeb attacks Cruz”. Not ONE hit. Plenty on Cruz being attacked by Trump, Rubio, Fiorina and the others. But not one single hit on Jeb.
I’m not saying that Jeb never said anything bad about Cruz, I am saying he’s never said anything that can come back and haunt P (4th gen Bush) in Texas.
Occam’s Razor: That explanation that best accounts for all know facts is probably the most correct explanation. Bush attacking Trump and not attacking Cruz is a forward payment for Cruz either helping or staying the hell out of the way of P.
And there it is. The REST of the story.
That is an excellent observation, BUT-
How would playing nice with Cruz be worthwhile if Trump is the guy who looks like he has the nomination sewn up?
Its not about the Presidential nomination. Its about protecting the next generation from vituperative assholes like Cruz, and (possibly) keeping VP aspirations alive. If Trump gets the nomination, it means nothing to the Bushies except some embarrassment as long as Cruz doesn’t decide that Jeb hurt him and wants to get some of his own back from GPB.
At this point there is nothing to indicate that Bush can get the nomination. He does not lack name recognition, he did not lack $$$, he did not lack political backing and he was not particularly despised by the Tea Party (granted, they didn’t like him, but that was more because of his name, than him).
I think a deal has been made. Bush stays in and stays away from Cruz, steals Kashich’s chance, attempts to keep Rubio under control in FL and tries to hit away at Trump. Cruz stays away from GPB altogether regardless of the outcome. It wouldn’t be the first time a deal such as this was made … by the Bushies.
That would explain why Jeb is still in, when he shows no interest at all in winning.
I thought Jeb! was simply trying to cement his record for most amount of money spent per vote.
But yeah, he’s not dumb
>>he’s not dumb
evidence for this claim please? He doesn’t seem very smart.
When somebody asked another Texas pol why he would accept the VP slot, his reply was that seven men had ascended to the office of President without running for it. LBJ was the eighth to do so, as I’m sure team Jeb! is keeping in mind.
Barring a major change, it’s hard to see how it matters which one drops out. If they’re both out, maybe it opens a lane for Rubio. I think Bush’s only chance was to come out swinging against Trump and not let up. Thing is Trump just takes him apart. But that’s precisely what he has to prove he can overcome. If he could show himself to be tough enough to stand up to the bully, and give the bully a bloody nose, he’d have a chance. He ought to be in some serious jujitsu training.
Every political instinct that JEB has constructed is contradicted by Trump. So, it’s little wonder he is having trouble taking him on. Trump breaks every rule, and comes out ahead anyway. It’s a style thing. Trump just looks and sounds better than JEB.
Again, I reiterate: Politics has nothing to do with political positions, everything to do with image. Trump’s image, which is contradicted by his record, is of a strong, capable guy who doesn’t take shit, says what he wants, and can’t be bought. This is a powerful image for republicans. JEB should study Trump.
And why did immigration work for Trump? Because he said what he wanted to say, and a hell of a lot of normal Americans agree with him.
I agree. And this is still what Jeb needed to do. Guy needed to earn his exclamation mark. Just hold his own and not get beaten like a drum. The look on his face alone when speaking directly with Trump on a debate platform is enough to make his people cringe. He looks visibly uncomfortable, even shaken.
There were many things Obama didn’t do well at first, but he believed in his own ability to learn and grow. And that’s exactly what he did. Bush needs more of that. But then Obama was born to a smart but not wealthy mother. His grandparents had more resources but were still decidedly upper-middle class. Bush was born on the 3rd base line, two feet away from home plate. Guys like that aren’t used to having to get their shit together pronto.
Sat’s debate I thought would turn a corner that would play out in SC. A corner meaning when Trump called out Cruz as a liar and then the blast against the Bush admin about the Iraq war.
All this in a state that polls in favor of GW and believes Bush’s Iraq war was justified by WMD.
How Trump’s callouts plays seems a pivotal moment. And now with GW up on the stage today, will Trump’s charges gurgle to the surface as GW speaks?
Kasich better talk to Frank Luntz to come up with some good wording to take advantage of Trump’s attacks on liars and lying administrations, because Trump is greasing some pretty big wheels.
If Trump, after so roughly trashing W. Bush on 9/11 and WMD claims and his Iraq war prosecution, maintains his big double-digit lead among South Carolina Republicans all the way through election day, that would confirm that a worm has turned within the GOP base, that is for damn sure.
I still have doubt that the whole group of GOP worms has turned in this area; I’ll be fascinated to see if Trump can make this line of argument so harshly and win throughout the South on Super Tuesday. I’d put nothing past their base voters; as long as Trump promises to make black and brown people eat shit he may get away with such broad apostasy.
Who are Trumps voters? Precariats on the right. That is the link between trade agreements and immigration. That is the big block to Cruz, who voted for fast track.
I had never heard the word precariat, and it’s a useful one to know. Thank you.
Yes, I wondered about that word too. Precarious proletariat. It fits. It’s why Trump and Sanders gather so many votes. It’s what I’ve been trying to say. D3emocrats are so hung up on building an unstoppable non-white coalition “Demographics is Destiny” that they dismiss immigration concerns as mere racism, when they are primarily job fear. This is exactly mirrored by the early 20th century when the immigrant flood was white people from Eastern and Southern Europe.
There was a lot wondering on another thread about why white proletarians left the Party of FDR, neglecting that the same Party left them and demonized them in the ’60s and ’70s.
You do realize that those people were not viewed as “white” at the time, right?
Irish Apes: Tactics of Dehumanization
Sample:
Being as how they were my grandparents, yes.
People who run for President never lack ambition, but Kasich just showed he has it both in spades and tempered with realism. Also, he just revealed when he’d drop out–after he loses his home state. He’ll be in for another month at that rate.
Also, my wife and I watched that show on demand last night and were suitably impressed, being both informed and entertained. If this kind of insight is typical, we’re going to keep watching it.
Kasich has a big hill to climb here. One of the two most recent polls had Kasich in fourth, 15% behind Rubio and Cruz, who were tied for second behind Trump at 35%. The other poll didn’t even bother asking about Kasich.
I’d have to say, if I was an establishment Republican in the South or West and Kasich couldn’t win Michigan??? Last I’d think of Kasich.
Michigan is for Kasich what NH was Bernie. If he can’t win there or at least place a strong 2nd what has he got to offer?