Since we’re at the mercy of polls that we don’t have a whole lot of reason to feel confident about, it’s hard to make any predictions about how the elections are going to go today. Nevertheless, I will offer a few observations.
In Nevada, I have no clue who will win or even if it will wind up being close. It does appear, however, that Sanders has as least narrowed a massive gap there in the last couple of months. It’s pretty high stakes, in my opinion, which I guess is appropriate. If there are any caucus ties, they’ll be settled by drawing cards rather than flipping coins. Sanders needs to win. It doesn’t matter what the delegate count is, as neither candidate can net more than a small handful. But Sanders is the underdog and he has a huge superdelegate disadvantage. He needs to disprove the common wisdom that he can’t compete in racially diverse states. And he appears to be far behind in South Carolina, so he can’t afford to lose the momentum he gained from his blowout win in New Hampshire. A loss in Nevada, no matter how narrow, will be a potentially lethal outcome for his campaign.
No pressure, right?
As for South Carolina, the remarkable thing here is that Donald Trump has done just about everything a prohibitive favorite should not do. He has not played it safe, nor has he in any way simply tried to run out the clock. He’s gone after the Pope, after Apple, after President Bush’s leadership and honesty. I don’t think these things have helped him and I won’t be surprised to see him do worse than the polls are indicating that he’ll do. But he had a yuuuge lead, and I don’t believe he’s done enough to blow it entirely. I still think he’ll win, but perhaps by five points or less. Partly, the size of his victory will depend on how strong the second place candidate finishes. Either way, you’ll know that Trump hurt himself if his numbers come in substantially below thirty percent.
Marco Rubio limped into South Carolina and seemed to recover and build some momentum. He picked up the endorsement of the governor, which certainly should help more than it hurts. He hasn’t finished strong, however. Maybe simple bad luck played a part, but he’s cancelled a couple of events over the closing days, and he’s taken some heat for it. If I’m right that he stalled in the last few days, it may cost him the second place finish he seeks.
Cruz is a bit of a mystery. He’s been getting hit hard from all sides, and I don’t know what to make of his broom closet meeting with Ben Carson. He’s organized the state, though, and his ground game is probably the strongest. The polls are split, with some (probably most) showing him slightly ahead of Rubio, and some showing him slightly behind. If I had to bet money, I’d place it on Cruz coming in second. But it’s just hard to say.
Bush is running on fumes, with rumors swirling that he’ll end his campaign if he doesn’t do well today. He really pushed for the governor’s endorsement, even bringing in his brother to try to seal the deal. It didn’t happen. Nonetheless, most polls show him in fourth place ahead of Kasich. He’ll need that to hold up or he might really drop out.
Kasich has a brand all his own, and he’s been rising in the polls slowly. It’s true that positive campaigning is not known for being effective in South Carolina, but his campaign has told anyone who will listen that he’s only in the Palmetto State to poach votes from Bush and to try to knock him out. He may accomplish that even with a fifth place finish. A strong fourth place finish is more likely to get that job done.
Carson is in last place in every poll I can find. I guess his job is to not finish in last place. I don’t see what that gets him, but it will beat expectations and result in humiliation for either Bush or Kasich.
There are so many story lines today that it’s going to be very interesting. I’ve already mentioned all of these, but here’s what to look for in order of importance.
1. Who wins Nevada?
2. Does Cruz or Rubio come in second place in South Carolina?
3. Assuming he wins, does Trump get more than a third of the vote or more like a quarter of it?
4. Does Bush do better than Kasich or not, and does he exceed expectations?
5. Does Kasich knock Bush out?
6. Does Carson call it quits?
Saddle up.
Carson is running so Armstrong Williams can make money.
I’ll just nod in agreement, except for your analysis of Nevada. I don’t think a loss will be lethal at all. If he keeps it close, he’ll have defied expectations regardless. If he wins, well…whole different ballgame. From what I’ve read she has the superior organization there. Will it overcome (seeming) enthusiasm? Time will tell.
He also has the potential advantage of republicans showing up to vote in the Democratic primary since the strange schedule allows them to do that and then vote in their own later in the week. So, it’s hard to say what impact that might have.
…South Carolina next weekend not as much, though even if Sanders wins today it won’t count because, a priori, if Clinton loses it doesn’t count.
http://www.capradio.org/news/insight/2016/02/19/insight-021916/
Check it out if you have time. The local Sacramento NPR station has some good local “newsy” shows. I really enjoy “Insight with Beth Ruyak.” Yesterday, she interviewed 2 locals who discussed the Nevada primary.
Nothing amazing, but provides a little, uh, insight from on the ground in Reno.
Both Ben Adler & Seth Richardson call a very tight caucus race today between Clinton and Sanders feeling it will likely come very close again. Both feel Trump will come out on top in Tuesday’s R primary in NV.
From the other thread:
Cruz has failed to consolidate the Evangelical vote. In 2008 Huckabee got 48%, but Santorum got 17% in 2012.
Cruz is right now closer to Santorum’s number than Huckabee’s.
Cruz really was set-up perfectly coming out of Iowa – but he has failed to consolidate the evangelical vote.
He will still pile up a good number of delegates on 3/1 particularly in Texas.
I still don’t see how Cruz doesn’t break 20 though.
In the closing 48 hours of Iowa all of the talk was about Rubio. It is again. Marco Rubio is the luckiest politician I have ever seen. Basically he is the last hope the GOP has – and he very much benefits from the media’s reporting of him.
As I posted elsewhere 3/15 is when time runs out to stop Trump. SC is unpredictable because I think that will begin to dawn on GOP establishment voters, and Bush and Kasich may collapse as a result.
So I would guess
Trump 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 21
Bush 8
Kasich 8
Carson 7
Nevada had little effect on the ’08 race, and a close Sanders loss would change nothing. A Sanders win by more than 3 will be a big deal – but all the media is in SC.
My guess is Clinton by 2.
Agree about Cruz, he’s had this opportunity basically snatched from his grasp by Trump omnipresence in the media and elsewhere competing for the same voters.
I’ll predict Trump’s win in SC narrowing from expectations, however, to four or less points over Cruz. I’m guessing he’s going to need to fight a bit harder, and smarter, for the next round of contests.
As for Rubio, if the GOP wants to nominate a bag of feathers now is their main chance to get started.
Trump wins running away leaving Rubio and Cruz in a cage-match for second. This is not a winning position for either of them.
So the guy who defied every deeply-held party precedent regarding the disastrous Bush presidency, who declared publicly that W was responsible for 9/11 and did not, in fact, ‘keep us safe’ but moreover lied to the public about WMD before incompetently making a ‘big, fat mistake’ by invading Iraq and de-stabilising the Middle East for a generation just won South Carolina by something like 13%. This ain’t your parents’ GOP.
My sister’s SO is a defense contractor, a gun nut, a guy who’s said over dinner at a restaurant that Obama needs eviction from the White House dead or alive, either way is fine by him.
And he loathes W and the way he screwed up the Iraq debacle, loathes him with the same vitriolic contempt he has for Obama.
I haven’t talked to him for quite a while, and we avoid politics by mutual consent to keep the peace, but I bet you he’s all in for Trump.
[b]1. Who wins Nevada?[/b]
It doesn’t matter. The fact that it is close is a loss for Hillary already (just like Iowa), and if she loses, there’s going to be a lot more (justified) hand-wringing from people, especially myself. I do not understand how a campaign that had apparently learned from the mistakes of not organizing well enough in 2008 appears to have the exact same problems.
2. Does Cruz or Rubio come in second place in South Carolina?
For us, we should be rooting for the Donald and Tailgunner Ted to come in 1/2. Keeping Rubio to flogging that ‘strong third place’ won’t get him much further. The establishment folks are clearly putting their chips on him, hence why this ‘diverse’ tableau of Republican politicians is being pushed hard the last couple of days. I don’t think Marco comes in 2nd, but I have been wrong more than I thought this year when it comes to this election, so who knows. He also has to clear 20% to stay in the game, otherwise the math, over the long run, is going to go against him. Sadly for Marco, neither Jeb nor Kasich have incentive to drop out for another month or so.
3. Assuming he wins, does Trump get more than a third of the vote or more like a quarter of it?
It seems like the polls show him coming back to earth. I think he gets in the high-20%, max. I do think that it would actually be to our benefit if Cruz won – I think he’s the more odious and ‘easier to hate’ candidate than Trump, who most people just think is a clown and is halfway entertaining.
4. Does Bush do better than Kasich or not, and does he exceed expectations?
Of course – Kasich will be lucky to get over 10%. That said, he has no expectations, and for him to even get press, he’d have to finish 3rd or better. Kasich won’t drop out until Ohio votes at the earliest (March 15), and if all these clowns are still in it, he would probably use some kind of justification for sticking it out to Pennsylvania, which is at the end of April.
5. Does Kasich knock Bush out?
No, and Jeb! is not dropping out until Right to Rise has nuked Rubio for all it is worth. He certainly would not drop out before Florida’s primary, which is on March 15th…so get ready for more (negative) Jebmentum!
6. Does Carson call it quits?
He won’t quit until Armstrong Williams has made enough cash and tells him he can stop the grifting. My hunch is that he won’t drop out until there is a presumptive nominee. That said, the only reason his 5-10% share becomes relevant is if it comes down to a battle between Trump and Cruz.
Clinton Wins Nevada Caucuses. This is, of course, good news for
John McCainBernie Sanders.Mook playing defence on home turf. If she wins by 5% that would be convincing but she has given up an enormous lead pretty rapidly.
Well I expect that “the mook” is going to clean his clock in South Carolina. But that won’t count because argle bargle.
Sanders has been running a good campaign so far in many respects but if he loses, he loses. The spin coming from Sanders people in a number of cases like this makes me a little dizzy and a little nauseous.
…isn’t that good for them really, is it?
Still, they’ll bury Sanders next week in some state down south that she won’t stand a chance to win against any Republican come the fall, so it’s all good.
Lol. You guys keep making my point for me!