Let’s watch and discuss some returns.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
GOP nominates either Trump or Cruz
And loses horrifically in November
In each case, a powerful and recalcitrant contingent of the right will have finally gotten their dream candidate and subsequently been forced to see that their worldview has been categorically rejected by the electorate.
Questions:
Does the progressive movement benefit more from this happening to movement conservatives (Cruz) or stupid angry old white conservatives (Trump)?
Or … does the progressive movement benefit from either of these groups getting the big wakeup call? Are we better off with them in a state of denial as they currently are?
Yep,
It sure looks like Trump.
.
#NeverTrump…..
….#YeahPrettyMuchTrump
Ya, pretty much. Looks like first ballot to me.
I was sure it would be Cruz.
.
Cruz is an evil little weasel, not to be underestimated, but this wasn’t his cycle.
Brutal!
EXCRUZIATING!
Or does the Democratic Party use the horrific defeat to try to capture ‘mainstream’ Republican voters? “If we just make a few tiny rightward adjustments, surely we can absorb responsible Republicans into our ranks! The oh-so-moderate Susan Collins types, the wonky Paul Ryan followers. That’ll turn the defeated Republican Party into a tiny, angry rump!”
No.
Instead they will call for public control of the commanding heights of the economy, and win in a landslide as scores of millions of heretofore silent social-democrat non-voters flock to the polls.
This is snark, right?
Recycled vomit, in place of a willingness to engage.
Let’s not forget their standard fall back position. Conservatism does not fail it is failed and The Donald will be spun to be the failed bit. But, this attempt to spin another national loss will fail. Your movement conservatives….I don’t get this fight they seem to be picking with the corporations over bathrooms. Makes no sense.
Judge extends voting hours at 4 Baltimore sites after complaint from Rep. Donna Edwards
And yet networks can’t wait to trip over themselves to call results.
Full exits from GOS.(http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/26/1520421/-Data-from-the-full-exits)
PA Clinton wins women 5941 (59%), Sanders Men 48-51
18-29 (11%) 15-85
30-44 (24%) 45-64
45-64 (40%) 64-35
65+ (15%) 67-32
White 51-48
Black 70-30
<$30K (19%) 58-41
30-50 (24%) 52-48
50-100 (34%) 53-56
100-200 (19%) 56-44
200K+ no data
MD Women (61%) 67-31, Men (39%) 54-42
17-29 (14%) 28-71
30-44 (26) 54-45
45-64 (41%) 74-23
65+ (18%) 73-22
<30K (19) 58-41
30-50 (24) 52-48
50-100 (34) 53-46
100-200 (19) 56-44
200+ (3) insufficient number
CT Women (60) 56-42, Men (40) 42-55
17-29 (15) 16-84
30-44 (21) 44-56
45-64 (42) 56-40
65+ (21) 70-27
White (74) 47-51
Black (15) 69-29
or if all non white (26) 61-37
<30K (13) 46-51
30-50 (15) 43-55
50-100 (28) 41-57
100-200 (30) 54-42
200K (14) 68-31
Early returns suggest the two liberals killed one another and the DNC candidate slides into first in PA.
Fetterman is stronger than expected.
Another DINO, eh?
Looks like Trump has blitzed what little remained of establishment Republican resistance. He’s left them without even a fig leaf for their dignity; whose party is it now?
Bush is probably congratulating himself for bailing when he did. Cruz would have done himself a favour getting out earlier too, methinks. He now has damaged not only his brand but directly undermined his ‘one true conservative’ narrative on the strength of a slender chance which now seems exhausted. Collusion with Kasich and insider delegate shenanigans has infested him with establishment cooties.
Not by Nate Cohn, but by others:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/26/east-coast-primaries-open-thread/
That’s a very interesting post but surely that prediction qualifies as an outlier, no?
I’m telling you. I will have to see it to believe it. I know they say they’re gonna do it – take it away from him – but they really will just have to do it for me to believe it.
I think it was just the ‘denial’ stage of grieving. And the Beltway media gets sucked up in their tail-wash time and again.
If they try to take him on in Cleveland it will only salt the earth on which their party once stood. He’s got them by the curlies, after the convention it will be his party.
Yes, that’s why I’m disappointed it won’t happen. Disputed nomination, Jerk-face Santorum is the nominee…couldn’t happen to a nicer party. Still, Trump is a pretty good consolation prize.
Cruz has had a terrible night. So, if Trump gets the nomination and Clinton bests him, the engines of whine will warm up again that the Rep’s didn’t win because a true Conservative didn’t get the nod.
Looks like Kasich is gaining; will Cruz & Rubio let their delegates move to Kasich if this keeps up?
I don’t think it will matter. It looks like Trump will win the required number.
.
The presenters on CNN are visibly rattled by Trump’s showing as the magnitude of his victory unfolds. This is not what they were expecting.
Imagine the consternation settling in on reluctant GOP apparatchiks nationwide as it dawns on them that this ‘thing’ is their very likely nominee and presumptive party leader. Somehow I sense a great disturbance in the force for Republicans. The ‘business model’ of the old school, the grifters, the political evangelicals all shaken up. We’ll see.
IMHO, Republicans have turned into the equivalent of a yellow dog Democrat. It’s just an R, rather than a D.
Word.
You don’t know how god damn tired I am of seeing Kathleen Matthews and David Trone ads on TV and radio. I hope Trone loses hard — he spent millions.
He lost hard.
Jamie is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College and Harvard Law School…He and his wife Sarah, who is the Deputy Secretary of the United States Treasury Department and a former Governor of the Federal Reserve Board…
With a background like that, this fellow has at best 6 months from being elected until he is denounced by progressives as an Establishment sell-out. Victory is betrayal.
That joke’s getting old.
Goodbye Chaka, you crook.
He’s learned a lot in a year. Listening one suffers the uncomfortable feeling of living in a slightly futuristic Eighties dystopian comic book. Trump! He speaks of himself in the third person, like Mussolini. Good Lord, what have we done?
Reality television has really hit the big time. Those whom have been plundering us by exploiting our appalling bad taste for a generation should hold themselves at least partly accountable for this.
Phenomenal night for Clinton; both because of her four wins and Trump’s five. How does the Republican party tear this away from the Trumpster. It’s looking more and more like he’s it. Never say never but I really like Hillary’s chances of landing in the White House with substantial coattails.
I totally agree!!! Despite losing little Rhode Island, Hillary had a super night, and now has 2137 delegates, including supers, and now only needs 246 more delegates to win the nomination. (18.6% of remaining delegates).
Hope so. We better hope the economy doesn’t stall and the warning buzzer seems about to go off. What happens if the recovery unravels? Oil at $40 and negative interest rates?
Say what you will about Trump he made the economy the centrepiece of his platform and has stuck with it tenaciously throughout. His prescriptions might sound like hogwash but there is an element of fate in events too. I reckon Trump would reap an enormous boon if the economy faltered between now and next November.
Trump’s pivot to Hillary framed as the establishment insider would be a nearly seamless transition for Trump and has risks for her. The media is already doing his initial dirty work for the sake of the horse-race and it’s all about transcripts, Wall Street and big money. Just because trump is a horse’s ass doesn’t mean he can’t exploit her vulnerabilities in this respect. I look forward to seeing her hang him by his thumbs over his most thoughtless positions, but I’m counting on her doing it too. She’s taken carriage of a considerable responsibility now.
When you’ve completely alienated woman and Latinos, it’s hard to see a path toward victory. His campaign talks about putting states like Pennsylvania in play. I don’t see it.
According to this poll it’s a fucking disaster for Trump,
http://iop.harvard.edu/iop-now/harvard-iop-spring-2016-poll
And Latino registration is going through the roof in California.
Latino
African Americans
Women
.
OK. But at the end of the day, it is all about the economy.
It looks to me that the Dem primary proved that not to be the case.
Sure.
Fetterman looking stronger than expected. Part of that is the fact that Allegheny and surrounding counties have already been counted. Sanders really missed an opportunity out here in Western PA.
Chris Rabb, formerly known as Afro-Netizen, from back in the netroots days WON the PA 200th Dem primary. Its a safe Dem seat. He defeated the machine candidate – supported by the Philadelphia Northwest coalition. Chris Rabb will instantly be the most progressive voice in Harrisburg. Amazing candidate. Amazing person.
I worked very hard on this campaign. I will boast that he won 91% of the vote in my division compared to 84% in his own division 😉
Dancing in the Streets here in Philadelphia.
Congratulations
.
That’s a huge event.
But did you see this?
Kind of a holy shit moment for the city.
New kid on the block.
So basically, to even have a shot at preventing a Trump majority on the first ballot, Cruz has to win Indiana.
And even that might not be enough if Trump wins big in California.