I wrote this at Bleeding Heartland.
Really the last variable is the third party vote, which always collapses. My guess is it benefits HRC, and I am more optimistic today then Tuesday.
I still think this is a 6-8 point race in the end.
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In fact, polls have been showing a substantial downward trend for the third parties for some time now. Like you, I would also guess this will bode well primarily for Clinton. Hopefully it bodes well for those candidates down ballot as well. Clinton will need all the help she can get.
As of today, in polling taken in the last 4 days, there are 14 states with 173 Electoral Votes where teh total of Johnson and Stein is larger than the margin between Clinton and Trump.
Of particular interest is New Mexico, but their combined vote is well over 5 in most of the battle ground states.
They are down from September, but in 2000 Nader’s vote declined by an average of 40 percent in the last 5 days.
Where will Johnson voters go down ballot: in NH it looks like for Ayotte.
Somewhere I had read that to the extent that the major parties were peeling off voters from the third parties, the split was something like 50/50 Clinton/Trump among initial Johnson supporters whereas Stein’s were coming back into the Democratic fold. Polls for Stein were consistently lower than they were for Johnson. My guess is a not to expect a lot of split ticket voting. If these voters go Trump or Clinton, they will vote consistently with their Presidential choice down ballot. NM may be a different story only because of Johnson’s history as a Governor there. But even then, I am not sure I’d put money on much more than a 50/50 split and probable straight ticket voting from there. Could be wrong, and would not be the first time. Certainly won’t be the last time.
From what I’ve seen of polls, as Johnson has gone down, trumps support goes up — Clinton stays relatively stable. At least this is what I’m seeing in the end. When he was polling in double digits I’d say he was taking 50/50. But either it’s a mere correlation, or he’s a weight on Trump.
thanks for posting. looking for good news from NM
In the aggregate, agree that third party candidates fade by election day, but location and polling are factors.
For example, in 1980, the election was called while the polls were still open. Didn’t depress turnout, but with the election not in doubt, it did boost Anderson’s numbers (based on his pitch that he needed X% to get federal matching funds and it was unfair that he didn’t get that money. Doubt a ringer campaign like Anderson’s could work again. And while it didn’t change the outcome, it may have flipped up to eight states.
While for the purposes of your presentation, it may be okay to lump together the Johnson and Stein polling numbers as it they’re votes are fungible, it’s a) disrespectful of those voters and their acceptance of the PR of both major majors that pitch “every vote counts.” Even if that’s a fiction and we know that many votes are never counted. More disturbing is the implicit message to those that can’t bring themselves to vote for the R or D nominee and find an alternative for their vote that they don’t matter, will never matter, and the only option is and will always be D or R; so, suck it up rubes. Negative messages lead to self-fulfilling prophecies which does great damage to the human experience and its potential.
(For those that are eager to jump on any comment I make here and use it to make false accusations, I’m not recommending or promoting any candidate. It’s up to each individual to make the choice that is the most appropriate for them and in their view for the country.)
I was simply suggesting that there was enormous potential volatility in the numbers that very few seem to recognize.
Pardon. Pay no mind to my non-cheery musings. I can’t obsess over the polls because the election has been over for some time – possibly before it began. However in spite of that a new and somewhat new generation plodded forward with enthusiasm, energy, and optimism and now are left to integrate “it doesn’t matter.” “Grow up and succumb to what generations of adults that came before did.” Only certain people matter — the ones that went to private secondary schools and elite universities, that accepted that who one knows and who one marries and how much wealth one accumulates trumps accomplishments, hard work, etc. “The club” as George Carlin pointed out and we’re not in it.
Basically I am doing to opposite: I am suggesting the size of their vote conveys the opportunity to wield significant power in the last 4 days.
Okay. But the power to do what? That number I saw was that 60% of voters don’t like either choice. Yet, they aren’t united and differ greatly as to what they would prefer. Wielding power can’t be done on an individual ad hoc basis. Absent organization, glue, and focus it evaporates. If the Green Party were ever able to nominate a person with political experience, charisma, and vision that captures the imagination many, this is the elect9ion when some power could have been exercised. Jill Stein is a very nice woman, but she not even a good enough default candidate in competition with a total ignorant nutball and HER. Won’t make much difference if HRC wins with 45% of the popular vote and 272 EC vote or 60% of the popular vote and 372 EC vote as to how she will perform in office. Like GWB she’ll declare that she has a mandate and proceed to do exactly what her coterie of elites tell her to do. And like Barack Obama do a lot of hippie punching bc that’s how Democrats believe they attract more support.