I continue to see apocalyptic estimates that it will take about four months for electric power to be restored on the island of Puerto Rico. There must be some way that we can improve on that number. We definitely should marshal every expert and every resource we have to do better than that. In the meantime, however, it will inevitably cause at least a short-term exodus of people to the mainland. Anyone with the resources or family connections to move is going to move. Would you stay somewhere without power for months if you had any alternative? What happens to the economy in a situation like that? How do you make a living and pay the rent or the mortgage?
Our first concern should be humanitarian. Generators and the fuel to power them should be near the top of the list. Health care facilities will need them, but also businesses that might thereby manage to operate, stay afloat, and keep people employed. Vulnerable people who need electricity to power life-saving medical equipment may have to be evacuated, and they’ll need some kind of housing. This is an unimaginable catastrophe.
Inevitably, many of the people who come to the mainland over the next few months will not make it back anytime soon, if ever. The second they arrive somewhere in the fifty states, they’ll be eligible to vote. In some places, particularly Florida, their numbers may be large enough to change political outcomes. If they align overwhelmingly with one political party, this will be much more likely. For this reason, both parties have an interest in avoiding a situation where they are blamed for an inadequate response. If the Republicans discover that they’re not getting much support from the refugees, they’ll be all the more incentivized to repair Puerto Rico quickly so that a reverse migration takes place.
These dynamics could be helpful in terms of Puerto Rico getting the attention and resources that it needs. There’s still a longer-term risk though that the imposition of harsh conditions for repayment of loans and other efforts to Detroitify the island will cause a political backlash. This process was already in motion before the hurricanes hit, but it will probably go into overdrive now.
It’s also not clear to me that law and order can stand up for months when there is no power and people can’t get their basic needs met. What this might do to the existing political order in Puerto Rico and how it might erode sympathy on the mainland are hard to predict. I can’t even predict whether this will add or subtract from the sentiment for full statehood. I imagine here in the fifty states, Puerto Rico will look more unattractive than ever, but how will things be perceived there? Will they conclude that full recovery is impossible without a closer tie to the union or will all the loss of sovereignty associated with their acceptance of aid lead them to seek full independence with new furor?
Will scarcity, insecurity and nationalism cause a rightward shift in the electorate, or will the island shift sharply left as they seek more assistance on less onerous terms?
With so many people in immediate desperate need, it’s unseemly to focus too much on politics, but people’s perceptions of the politics will color how this emergency is handled in Washington. I wish I understood the politics of this better than I do, but unfortunately it looks like I will have plenty of time to learn.
I have been thinking about Puerto Rico, too. 4-6 months with no power, that would be unfathomable and totally unacceptable here on mainland US, but are we as a country not going to care because they are “other”?
Surely our military could step in and get power going?
Flint Michigan still doesn’t have safe drinking water.
Oh, right. Those people are the wrong color, too. I cannot figure out who raised all these sociopaths.
Unfortunately, Irma & Maria won’t be the last of these kinds of storms. It’s time to keep that in mind when making the repairs and Congress should be deliberating the option of a smart grid with solar and wind rather than dependence on fossil fuels that must be barged in.
In 140+ sustained winds the solar panels would be in Georgia, and the windmills would be a pile of twisted rubble (at about 2-4 million a pop) and you would be right where you are now…needing generators (cheapest, fastest way for temporary power) while your infrastructure (wires and towers) is being rebuilt.
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Agreed, but … https:/qz.com/1083809/hurricane-maria-damaged-puerto-ricos-power-grid-which-relies-almost-entirely-
on-fossil-fuels
Of course you are still correct, and in a twist of Shock Doctrine a country could rebuild their infrastructure as sustainable.
But we don’t live in that world, PR won’t get the help they need, and the republicans and the white supremacist that leads them will vilify the PR immigrants as invaders coming to use their own private welfare system that the Clinton’s created, all to get their base out to vote.
That those ‘invaders’ are US citizens will be lost on them, and we will see attempts to take that citizenship away.
THAT’S the world we live in.
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Sadly, I agree. There could be a twist that happens though. Somewhere along the line Congress will have to produce an aid package, budgets will have to be drawn, creditors will line up, insurance companies will chime in. And somewhere during that discussion a lightbulb will turn on, if only for a minute, that solar & wind should have a role, blockchain can be used to give neighborhoods the chance to finance and run their own grids. No grid or its elements can withstand a CAT 4 or 5, so it becomes a matter of what can be repaired the fastest, is the most economical to run and sustain.
I would be happy if they just rebuilt their infrastructure with the cables underground, in PVC pipes.
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Yes, I think so. More expensive in the short run, and cant be done for the highest voltage lines, but cost effective in the long run I think.
I take it back — it is possible to run high voltage lines underground! Sounds crazy but its doable. Technology, wow.
https://www.generalcable.com/na/us-can/products-solutions/energy/high-voltage-underground-transmissi
on-cable-systems
Interesting. But island would still have to barge in fuel and they’re already paying through the nose for fuel.
Diesel, no less. And they owe a ton of money to the petroleum companies. How about LNG? We got plenty if they need it.
Right you are. There is actually footage of a wind turbine that was totally stripped of its blades.
Wind turbine companies have been studying this problem for some time. Most offshore wind turbines can withstand a hurricane up to Category 3. After that, study models show a rapidly increasing fail rate. But this failure can be significantly mitigated through turbine/tower design and siting. If the turbine is able to turn in the direction of the hurricane winds (i.e. its thin side), it can withstand much higher winds and gusts. Likewise building stronger towers will help. What will also help is siting. Building in less exposed areas (but where there is still a steady breezes) also will help. As for solar panels, there is almost always sufficient warning of a hurricane’s direction to let technicians go out and quickly dismantle the most exposed solar panels and then reassemble after the storm.
Look, there’s going to be massive damage no matter what you do when you’re hit by a Cat 5 but PR’s fossil fuel fired power system is just not economically sustainable anymore.
Building wind turbines that can survive Cat 5 hurricanes is an engineering problem that can be solved. After all, aircraft components stand up to much higher winds every day.
Building Cat-5-survivable wind turbines at a price someone is willing to pay — a lot harder.
Welcome to the new normal.
Financially, PR has no money. They have been losing population at an alarming rate. Young people have mostly given up leaving an older, less educated population to try to carry the burden, and they can’t.
Branson has talked about a “Marshall Plan” for the BVI. The same is true for PR, St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
I would love to see our government incentive people with the needed skills (and perhaps without jobs now) to move to PR and the other affected territories, to help rebuild. Move their with their families. Perhaps some will stay and rejuvenate the economies.
Your political question is whether there is the will in Congress to do this? I’d hope the Democrats would immediate propose something along these lines. After all, these are “infrastructure jobs.” Maybe some public/private partnerships. PR used to be a big manufacturing hub for drug companies.
There is so much that needs to be done there. Send some MP’s to maintain order. Send electricians, plumbers, doctors, nurses. A good use of money. Better than a friggin’ wall.
Your political question is whether there is the will in Congress to do this? I’d hope the Democrats would immediate propose something along these lines.
Considering how Democrats voted to screw Puerto Rico last year, I’m not holding my breath.
It’s tragic, but I suspect these islands are doomed, and it would be in everyone’s best interest to pay off the people and move them someplace safe. Return the islands to the animals. Consider it practice for Florida. My heart goes out to these poor people, but we do them no favor by pretending we can save the islands.
Hurricane strikes even like this are perfectly survivable. Cancun took a strike with Wilma just as bad as Puerto Rico Maria and it’s still Spring Break Central.
It does take a lot of money, good regulations, and careful oversight.
Well, then! Puerto Rico is…
[contemplates current federal government]
Screwed.
What do you mean the islands are doomed? Is Florida doomed? Should all people in coastal areas relocate to the Rocky Mountains?
Anyways they might want to study Cuba how it manages. It got hit extremely heavy by Irma – and they don’t have a fallback country to rely on.
I don’t agree. Build infrastructure to stand up to hurricanes.
OT
McCain a no vote on Trumpcare
I’d be thrilled to hear this if McCain had even a shred of credibility left.
McCain has become a proponent of bipartisanship.
I think he is sincere after all this was Gram’s bill
His statement certainly reads like that of someone who is sincere. I want badly to believe him. I just can’t.
He didn’t leave much if any wiggle room to take back his no. I really don’t see what can be done by McConnell to flip him.
I live in SD. We have big winter storms. We never lose power in Sioux Falls. Because 90 % of all power lines are underground.
In Puerto Rico, they are going to have more storms. Power lines should go underground.
Solar power should be designed as well. But design the power panels to be closed or folded up for a hurricane.
Great piece http://getenergysmartnow.com/2017/09/22/energy-smart-secure-communities-key-to-smart-harveyirmamaria
-reliefrecoveryreconstruction/
Hurricane season runs till the end of November for the Atlantic. So there is still two months left.
Given that the years to come would most likely see the same trend, or even increasing numbers and intensities, it seems that the small islands in the Caribbean are going to be facing calamities even if they rebuild!