Here are two pieces of news from Tennessee. Check them out and tell me if you think they are in any way contradictory.
“The president is, as you know — you’ve seen his numbers among the Republican base — it’s very strong. It’s more than strong, it’s tribal in nature. People who tell me, who are out on trail, say, look, people don’t ask about issues anymore. They don’t care about issues. They want to know if you’re with Trump or not.”
— Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), in an interview with the Washington Examiner.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Tennessee finds former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) with a slight edge over Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 41%, with 13% still undecided.
Maybe these two things are consistent, but if they are then is surely means that Trump’s popularity (or base) isn’t easily transferable to Republican candidates running for office this fall. Rep. Marsha Blackburn is a fairly Trumpy candidate, but she’s trailing the Democrat. And, while Phil Bredesen was a popular two-term governor who served from 2003 to 2011, he’s been out of office for a while and his state has continued to move far to the right. I can remember when people were surprised that Al Gore couldn’t win his home state in 2000, and also when Bill Clinton won in twice, in 1992 and 1996. In 2016, Trump carried the state 61 percent to 35 percent. If what the Republicans in Tennessee really want is someone to serve in the Senate who will do the president’s bidding, then Blackburn should be well ahead in this poll.
Now, it could be that Bredensen is getting a boost out of his better name recognition, but being well known as a Democrat shouldn’t really be that helpful.
We don’t have that many data points to examine, but the Democrats have been winning some races recently in strong Trump territory, and it could be that Bob Corker is not getting the full picture of what’s going on in the country or in his home state. It wouldn’t be that surprising. In the era of Trump, it seems like it’s easy to misinterpret data and draw bad conclusions from worn out assumptions. It happened to Hillary Clinton when she didn’t anticipate the degree of her collapse in rural areas and small towns. It could be happening again, but this time to Republicans who are overestimating the degree to which their base of support is in thrall to Donald Trump.
I think Trump’s base is unique. First of all, it’s made up of a lot of Democrats who never have supported giant tax cuts for rich people and corporations. Secondly, insofar as rank-and-file longtime Republicans have transferred their allegiance to Trump, that group is shrinking as soft Republicans flee a sinking ship.
If could be that being anti-Trump is still dangerous or even suicidal in a Republican primary, but I think being pro-Trump is probably the surest way to blow your chance at winning a safe Senate seat in places like Tennessee, Alabama, or even Mississippi.
I don’t expect a win in Tennessee, much as I’d lie it.
It’s Tennessee. Still, why did Gore lose and Bill Clinton win? Resentment against Gore’s perceived egghead-elite manner, while Bill was a good-ole boy?
(likely a horrible oversimplification).
All the polls say the same thing – Trump is pretty popular with Republicans and extremely unpopular with everybody else. This is perfectly compatible with Corker’s claim of extreme loyalty among Republicans and polls showing a Democratic lean in a normally Republican state, especially given the relative popularities of the two running.
Hard to say for sure, but Clinton’s 1992 and 1996 wins may have more to do with Ross Perot peeling away enough Republican voters instead of anything Bill did on the campaign trail.
Gore did do particularly poorly, but John Kerry managed over a million votes in 2004 as did Obama in 2008. Both better than Bill Clinton.
Like most of the American heartland, Tennessee’s “reddening” probably has more to do with the well documented atrophy of local Democratic organizing mixed with the Republican gerrymandering/voter suppression than there actually being more Republicans.
. . . Clinton.
The most salient evidence — exit polls asking voters’ second choice — showed Perot drew about equally from Clinton and Bush.
Corporate media/pundits flogged the myth until it became conventional political wisdom, but the data do not support it.
Hope Bredesen can back Blackburn into a Trumpian corner.
Go look at her senate site. Blackburn seems to be running on cutting taxes in TN and how much she supports the donald. Appears she wants to be gov. so she can do nothing in TN.
I’m not an expert on TN but I’m guessing the usual urban vs. suburban/rural voter divide exists there as well. That said, the Trumpistas tend to be extremely vocal and so they may be dominating the state GOP conversation more so than the actual voter sentiments.
In any event, I thought Corker had changed his mind and decided to run again anyway (or is this analysis assuming that he would lose a primary to Marsha?).
Well, first of all, I’m surprised to see a 5-point spread described as a “slight” lead. Margin of error isn’t listed but that sounds pretty decisive to me.
Second, Blackburn is a moron. I’m surprised she can tie her own shoes. I don’t know how she became a go-to for the GOP or the various talking head shows.
. . . sample size just over 1,000 is +/- 3. Since that applies to each candidate’s estimate, difference has to be > 6 percentage points to be outside MOE. State polls often have smaller sample size –> larger MOE.
There are few politicians I dislike more than Rep, Blackburn.
I would love to see her defeated in a Statewide election in Tennessee. It’s what she deserves.
Well, I live down here.
My understanding is the establishment doesn’t care for Marsha too much. That’s why they wanted Corker to stay in the race:
She’s seen as a bombthrower by the TN GOP establishment, and Bredesen is leading her (for now).
And people REALLY like Bredesen, who apparently fixed the I-40 problems around Knoxville (I was not here for that, but apparently it was a pretty big deal).
So we shall see…